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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

OtherEnds Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket ↗
YES price
15.5¢
current
Total volume
+$56.96M
+$301.9K / 24h
Liquidity
+$945.3K
Whale trades (90d)
119
71 distinct wallets
Whale buy volume
+$1.36M
last 90d, $10K+ trades
Whale sell volume
+$1.25M
last 90d
Net flow
+$106.4K
buy-side dominant
Conviction fires
6
trades passing wave-34 gate

Top wallets on this market

71 wallets · sorted by net buy
WalletTradesBuySellNetPnL/$Gate
Erasmus.2+$88.4K$0+$88.4K-25%
QuietRiskisWrong8+$108.6K+$46.8K+$61.8K-43%
tetrose8+$83.6K+$22.3K+$61.3K+2%
BlindGibbon2+$52.8K$0+$52.8K
pakukudolphi4+$78.0K+$29.1K+$48.9K-6%
MisTKy3+$45.4K$0+$45.4K-5%
bysittingnottrading1+$45.3K$0+$45.3K-46%
HowToBasic2+$41.9K$0+$41.9K-19%
mombil3+$37.8K$0+$37.8K-18%
0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-17697643139521+$32.6K$0+$32.6K-14%
infolitio1+$32.4K$0+$32.4K+27%🟢
QWETR123452+$30.2K$0+$30.2K-97%
James0002+$28.0K$0+$28.0K-3%
GoriIIa1+$26.0K$0+$26.0K+3%
denizz3+$47.9K+$25.4K+$22.5K+7%🟢
0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd491+$22.0K$0+$22.0K-75%
0xf76b1ed3e35c6e7c04ab2098001bf7909fd252a31+$20.8K$0+$20.8K+3%
kenzok2+$20.4K$0+$20.4K
aenews23+$81.0K+$61.2K+$19.8K+12%🟢
657657573+$33.0K+$13.8K+$19.2K-34%
coali101+$18.8K$0+$18.8K-9%
Car1+$17.7K$0+$17.7K-13%
betwick1+$16.7K$0+$16.7K-5%
DonaldinhoTrumpito1+$16.6K$0+$16.6K-53%
lazercrazer1+$15.9K$0+$15.9K-21%

Showing top 25 of 71 by net flow.

Recent whale trades

119 trades · ≥$10K · 90d window
WhenWalletSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 02:26 PMaenews2SELL NO0.734+$61.2K— (SELL)
Jul 20, 07:46 AM65765757BUY NO0.730+$17.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:43 AMaenews2BUY NO0.710+$70.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:41 AM0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49BUY NO0.710+$22.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:40 AMeightpenguinsBUY NO0.710+$39.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:11 PMpilimiliSELL NO0.690+$22.3K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:15 PM65765757SELL NO0.690+$13.8K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 05:20 PMMisTKyBUY YES0.290+$20.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 18, 12:17 PMdaodadBUY YES0.280+$10.9KCheap band — no rep
Jul 18, 11:52 AMcookie96BUY YES0.280+$14.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 17, 06:12 PMlazercrazerBUY YES0.263+$15.9KCheap band — no rep
Jul 17, 04:34 PMGonTanakaSELL NO0.740+$10.7K— (SELL)
Jul 17, 04:02 PMMisTKyBUY YES0.250+$15.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 17, 04:02 PMmombilBUY YES0.250+$12.5KCheap band — no rep
Jul 17, 05:32 AMGoriIIaBUY NO0.780+$26.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:10 PMinfolitioBUY YES0.240+$32.4KConviction tier
Jul 16, 05:06 PMbysittingnottradingBUY NO0.770+$45.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 03:40 PMkenzokBUY YES0.240+$10.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 16, 02:43 PMwan123SELL NO0.760+$17.0K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 07:29 AMstudmuffin6969SELL NO0.760+$28.1K— (SELL)
Jul 16, 12:46 AMhideoSELL NO0.780+$29.0K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:41 PMKrackenSrusterSELL NO0.790+$19.1K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:40 PMcoali10BUY YES0.200+$18.8KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:40 PMtetroseBUY YES0.200+$10.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:36 PMtetroseBUY YES0.200+$10.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:36 PMtetroseBUY YES0.200+$20.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 07:33 PMmombilBUY YES0.210+$10.0KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 07:33 PMErasmus.BUY YES0.200+$55.9KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 07:33 PMmombilBUY YES0.187+$15.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 15, 01:40 PMEnd123SELL NO0.810+$97.2K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 05:53 AM0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952BUY NO0.810+$32.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:34 PMArbguyBUY YES0.200+$18.7KConviction tier
Jul 14, 10:12 AMKryptogramBUY YES0.190+$11.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 05:07 AMParz1vaIBUY NO0.810+$12.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:44 PMCarBUY NO0.796+$17.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:46 PMMisTKyBUY YES0.210+$10.4KCheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 11:59 AMnojnnSELL NO0.810+$80.9K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 10:12 AMDonaldinhoTrumpitoBUY NO0.830+$16.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:45 AMJames000BUY YES0.179+$16.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 11, 11:38 PMeightpenguinsSELL NO0.830+$26.1K— (SELL)
Jul 11, 05:21 PMnojnnSELL NO0.850+$12.5K— (SELL)
Jul 11, 02:33 PMdenizzBUY NO0.850+$33.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:54 AMjust.some.guy.2026SELL NO0.840+$36.1K— (SELL)
Jul 9, 03:54 PMEatprayloveBUY NO0.840+$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:57 PMkenzokBUY YES0.164+$10.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 01:29 PMKrackenSrusterSELL NO0.850+$11.1K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 08:54 AMstudmuffin6969SELL NO0.850+$34.0K— (SELL)
Jul 7, 07:33 PMtetroseBUY YES0.130+$23.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 5, 08:44 PMdenizzBUY NO0.880+$14.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:07 PMContrarian - 7451SELL NO0.860+$12.9K— (SELL)
Jul 1, 07:26 PMFridayNightSELL NO0.860+$26.2K— (SELL)
Jun 26, 05:58 AMBlindGibbonBUY NO0.880+$17.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:57 AMBlindGibbonBUY NO0.880+$35.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 04:25 PMQWETR12345BUY NO0.871+$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:28 PMVilgefortzBUY NO0.870+$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:42 PMbetwickBUY YES0.145+$16.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 02:43 AMQWETR12345BUY NO0.875+$17.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:58 PMpakukudolphiBUY NO0.810+$16.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:50 PMmr.oziSELL NO0.805+$31.2K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:45 PMBertapotamousBUY NO0.840+$15.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:30 PMseraphimproudleduckSELL YES0.230+$11.5K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:28 PMHowToBasicBUY NO0.750+$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:26 PMIstarothSELL NO0.750+$45.0K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 12:23 PMArbguyBUY YES0.220+$17.7KConviction tier
Jun 11, 12:23 PMWickierBUY YES0.210+$11.3KConviction tier
Jun 11, 08:35 AMtetroseSELL YES0.190+$10.6K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 09:11 PMtetroseBUY YES0.190+$10.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:51 PMreferralfarmerSELL NO0.820+$13.1K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 11:43 AMpakukudolphiBUY NO0.832+$15.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:40 AMColdwind01SELL YES0.166+$15.5K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 08:09 PMcripes3SELL NO0.830+$10.8K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:41 AMsadfafdfsdsSELL NO0.840+$19.6K— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:41 AM0xdamoclesBUY NO0.840+$12.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 10:50 PM0xf76b1ed3e35c6e7c04ab2098001bf7909fd252a3BUY NO0.830+$20.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:08 PMpakukudolphiSELL NO0.830+$29.1K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMAdrianCronauerSELL YES0.101+$11.7K— (SELL)
May 24, 09:11 PMValen9SELL NO0.810+$22.7K— (SELL)
May 23, 06:08 PMinrock30SELL YES0.190+$10.9K— (SELL)
May 23, 02:45 PMtetroseSELL YES0.224+$11.7K— (SELL)
May 23, 01:55 PMErasmus.BUY NO0.719+$32.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:07 AM65765757BUY NO0.715+$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:46 PMdenizzSELL NO0.690+$25.4K— (SELL)
May 22, 07:19 PMAngryRhinoSELL NO0.750+$26.5K— (SELL)
May 22, 10:22 AMpakukudolphiBUY NO0.767+$46.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:39 AMjimbobianthethirdSELL NO0.744+$13.3K— (SELL)
May 22, 03:56 AMjust.some.guy.2026BUY NO0.750+$14.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:22 PM0x436f969D99c90191fBC2c629e6B7a1B754402c7F-1772236065502SELL YES0.242+$13.1K— (SELL)
May 21, 10:54 AMmr.oziSELL NO0.710+$10.7K— (SELL)
May 21, 10:19 AMloser326BUY NO0.745+$21.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:18 PMArbguySELL YES0.303+$26.4K— (SELL)
May 20, 02:18 PMArbguySELL YES0.314+$23.5K— (SELL)
May 19, 07:27 PMhoriz0nSELL NO0.690+$12.1K— (SELL)
May 18, 10:11 PMQuietRiskisWrongBUY NO0.719+$18.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 07:23 PMunsxSELL YES0.285+$16.9K— (SELL)
May 18, 06:32 AMColdwind01BUY YES0.326+$13.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 18, 06:32 AMColdwind01BUY YES0.316+$16.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 17, 04:30 PMunsxSELL YES0.290+$14.7K— (SELL)
May 17, 01:06 PMcocos228BUY NO0.700+$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:49 PM0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082aSELL NO0.718+$85.2K— (SELL)
May 15, 08:48 PMaenews2BUY YES0.270+$10.8KConviction tier

Showing 100 of 119.

All trades pulled from on-chain Polymarket fills via the Polygon CTF Exchange. Methodology badges apply the same wave-34 classifier as /whales. Full per-wallet audit on /trader/[address].