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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
YES price
15.5¢
current
Total volume
+$56.96M
+$301.9K / 24h
Liquidity
+$945.3K
Whale trades (90d)
119
71 distinct wallets
Whale buy volume
+$1.36M
last 90d, $10K+ trades
Whale sell volume
+$1.25M
last 90d
Net flow
+$106.4K
buy-side dominant
Conviction fires
6
trades passing wave-34 gate
Top wallets on this market
71 wallets · sorted by net buy| Wallet | Trades | Buy | Sell | Net | PnL/$ | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erasmus. | 2 | +$88.4K | $0 | +$88.4K | -25% | — |
| QuietRiskisWrong | 8 | +$108.6K | +$46.8K | +$61.8K | -43% | — |
| tetrose | 8 | +$83.6K | +$22.3K | +$61.3K | +2% | — |
| BlindGibbon | 2 | +$52.8K | $0 | +$52.8K | — | — |
| pakukudolphi | 4 | +$78.0K | +$29.1K | +$48.9K | -6% | — |
| MisTKy | 3 | +$45.4K | $0 | +$45.4K | -5% | — |
| bysittingnottrading | 1 | +$45.3K | $0 | +$45.3K | -46% | — |
| HowToBasic | 2 | +$41.9K | $0 | +$41.9K | -19% | — |
| mombil | 3 | +$37.8K | $0 | +$37.8K | -18% | — |
| 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | 1 | +$32.6K | $0 | +$32.6K | -14% | — |
| infolitio | 1 | +$32.4K | $0 | +$32.4K | +27% | 🟢 |
| QWETR12345 | 2 | +$30.2K | $0 | +$30.2K | -97% | — |
| James000 | 2 | +$28.0K | $0 | +$28.0K | -3% | — |
| GoriIIa | 1 | +$26.0K | $0 | +$26.0K | +3% | — |
| denizz | 3 | +$47.9K | +$25.4K | +$22.5K | +7% | 🟢 |
| 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 | 1 | +$22.0K | $0 | +$22.0K | -75% | — |
| 0xf76b1ed3e35c6e7c04ab2098001bf7909fd252a3 | 1 | +$20.8K | $0 | +$20.8K | +3% | — |
| kenzok | 2 | +$20.4K | $0 | +$20.4K | — | — |
| aenews2 | 3 | +$81.0K | +$61.2K | +$19.8K | +12% | 🟢 |
| 65765757 | 3 | +$33.0K | +$13.8K | +$19.2K | -34% | — |
| coali10 | 1 | +$18.8K | $0 | +$18.8K | -9% | — |
| Car | 1 | +$17.7K | $0 | +$17.7K | -13% | — |
| betwick | 1 | +$16.7K | $0 | +$16.7K | -5% | — |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito | 1 | +$16.6K | $0 | +$16.6K | -53% | — |
| lazercrazer | 1 | +$15.9K | $0 | +$15.9K | -21% | — |
Showing top 25 of 71 by net flow.
Recent whale trades
119 trades · ≥$10K · 90d window| When | Wallet | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 02:26 PM | aenews2 | SELL NO | 0.734 | +$61.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:46 AM | 65765757 | BUY NO | 0.730 | +$17.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:43 AM | aenews2 | BUY NO | 0.710 | +$70.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:41 AM | 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 | BUY NO | 0.710 | +$22.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 07:40 AM | eightpenguins | BUY NO | 0.710 | +$39.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 04:11 PM | pilimili | SELL NO | 0.690 | +$22.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 10:15 PM | 65765757 | SELL NO | 0.690 | +$13.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 05:20 PM | MisTKy | BUY YES | 0.290 | +$20.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 18, 12:17 PM | daodad | BUY YES | 0.280 | +$10.9K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 18, 11:52 AM | cookie96 | BUY YES | 0.280 | +$14.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 06:12 PM | lazercrazer | BUY YES | 0.263 | +$15.9K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 04:34 PM | GonTanaka | SELL NO | 0.740 | +$10.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 04:02 PM | MisTKy | BUY YES | 0.250 | +$15.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 04:02 PM | mombil | BUY YES | 0.250 | +$12.5K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 05:32 AM | GoriIIa | BUY NO | 0.780 | +$26.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 05:10 PM | infolitio | BUY YES | 0.240 | +$32.4K | Conviction tier |
| Jul 16, 05:06 PM | bysittingnottrading | BUY NO | 0.770 | +$45.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 03:40 PM | kenzok | BUY YES | 0.240 | +$10.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 16, 02:43 PM | wan123 | SELL NO | 0.760 | +$17.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 07:29 AM | studmuffin6969 | SELL NO | 0.760 | +$28.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 12:46 AM | hideo | SELL NO | 0.780 | +$29.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 08:41 PM | KrackenSruster | SELL NO | 0.790 | +$19.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 08:40 PM | coali10 | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$18.8K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 08:40 PM | tetrose | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$10.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 08:36 PM | tetrose | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$10.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 08:36 PM | tetrose | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$20.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 07:33 PM | mombil | BUY YES | 0.210 | +$10.0K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 07:33 PM | Erasmus. | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$55.9K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 07:33 PM | mombil | BUY YES | 0.187 | +$15.3K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 01:40 PM | End123 | SELL NO | 0.810 | +$97.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 05:53 AM | 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | BUY NO | 0.810 | +$32.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 07:34 PM | Arbguy | BUY YES | 0.200 | +$18.7K | Conviction tier |
| Jul 14, 10:12 AM | Kryptogram | BUY YES | 0.190 | +$11.1K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 05:07 AM | Parz1vaI | BUY NO | 0.810 | +$12.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 07:44 PM | Car | BUY NO | 0.796 | +$17.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 06:46 PM | MisTKy | BUY YES | 0.210 | +$10.4K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 13, 11:59 AM | nojnn | SELL NO | 0.810 | +$80.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 10:12 AM | DonaldinhoTrumpito | BUY NO | 0.830 | +$16.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 03:45 AM | James000 | BUY YES | 0.179 | +$16.4K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 11:38 PM | eightpenguins | SELL NO | 0.830 | +$26.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 05:21 PM | nojnn | SELL NO | 0.850 | +$12.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 02:33 PM | denizz | BUY NO | 0.850 | +$33.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 12:54 AM | just.some.guy.2026 | SELL NO | 0.840 | +$36.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 03:54 PM | Eatpraylove | BUY NO | 0.840 | +$13.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:57 PM | kenzok | BUY YES | 0.164 | +$10.4K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 01:29 PM | KrackenSruster | SELL NO | 0.850 | +$11.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 08:54 AM | studmuffin6969 | SELL NO | 0.850 | +$34.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 07:33 PM | tetrose | BUY YES | 0.130 | +$23.1K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 08:44 PM | denizz | BUY NO | 0.880 | +$14.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 09:07 PM | Contrarian - 7451 | SELL NO | 0.860 | +$12.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 07:26 PM | FridayNight | SELL NO | 0.860 | +$26.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 05:58 AM | BlindGibbon | BUY NO | 0.880 | +$17.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 05:57 AM | BlindGibbon | BUY NO | 0.880 | +$35.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 04:25 PM | QWETR12345 | BUY NO | 0.871 | +$13.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 02:28 PM | Vilgefortz | BUY NO | 0.870 | +$13.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:42 PM | betwick | BUY YES | 0.145 | +$16.7K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 21, 02:43 AM | QWETR12345 | BUY NO | 0.875 | +$17.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:58 PM | pakukudolphi | BUY NO | 0.810 | +$16.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:50 PM | mr.ozi | SELL NO | 0.805 | +$31.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:45 PM | Bertapotamous | BUY NO | 0.840 | +$15.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | seraphimproudleduck | SELL YES | 0.230 | +$11.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:28 PM | HowToBasic | BUY NO | 0.750 | +$20.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:26 PM | Istaroth | SELL NO | 0.750 | +$45.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:23 PM | Arbguy | BUY YES | 0.220 | +$17.7K | Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 12:23 PM | Wickier | BUY YES | 0.210 | +$11.3K | Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 08:35 AM | tetrose | SELL YES | 0.190 | +$10.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:11 PM | tetrose | BUY YES | 0.190 | +$10.4K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 12:51 PM | referralfarmer | SELL NO | 0.820 | +$13.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 11:43 AM | pakukudolphi | BUY NO | 0.832 | +$15.4K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:40 AM | Coldwind01 | SELL YES | 0.166 | +$15.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:09 PM | cripes3 | SELL NO | 0.830 | +$10.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 12:41 AM | sadfafdfsds | SELL NO | 0.840 | +$19.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:41 AM | 0xdamocles | BUY NO | 0.840 | +$12.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:50 PM | 0xf76b1ed3e35c6e7c04ab2098001bf7909fd252a3 | BUY NO | 0.830 | +$20.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:08 PM | pakukudolphi | SELL NO | 0.830 | +$29.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 03:03 PM | AdrianCronauer | SELL YES | 0.101 | +$11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:11 PM | Valen9 | SELL NO | 0.810 | +$22.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:08 PM | inrock30 | SELL YES | 0.190 | +$10.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:45 PM | tetrose | SELL YES | 0.224 | +$11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:55 PM | Erasmus. | BUY NO | 0.719 | +$32.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:07 AM | 65765757 | BUY NO | 0.715 | +$16.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:46 PM | denizz | SELL NO | 0.690 | +$25.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:19 PM | AngryRhino | SELL NO | 0.750 | +$26.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:22 AM | pakukudolphi | BUY NO | 0.767 | +$46.4K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:39 AM | jimbobianthethird | SELL NO | 0.744 | +$13.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:56 AM | just.some.guy.2026 | BUY NO | 0.750 | +$14.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:22 PM | 0x436f969D99c90191fBC2c629e6B7a1B754402c7F-1772236065502 | SELL YES | 0.242 | +$13.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:54 AM | mr.ozi | SELL NO | 0.710 | +$10.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:19 AM | loser326 | BUY NO | 0.745 | +$21.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | Arbguy | SELL YES | 0.303 | +$26.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | Arbguy | SELL YES | 0.314 | +$23.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 07:27 PM | horiz0n | SELL NO | 0.690 | +$12.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 10:11 PM | QuietRiskisWrong | BUY NO | 0.719 | +$18.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:23 PM | unsx | SELL YES | 0.285 | +$16.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 06:32 AM | Coldwind01 | BUY YES | 0.326 | +$13.9K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 06:32 AM | Coldwind01 | BUY YES | 0.316 | +$16.1K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 04:30 PM | unsx | SELL YES | 0.290 | +$14.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:06 PM | cocos228 | BUY NO | 0.700 | +$10.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 08:49 PM | 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a | SELL NO | 0.718 | +$85.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 08:48 PM | aenews2 | BUY YES | 0.270 | +$10.8K | Conviction tier |
Showing 100 of 119.
All trades pulled from on-chain Polymarket fills via the Polygon CTF Exchange. Methodology badges apply the same wave-34 classifier as /whales. Full per-wallet audit on /trader/[address].