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Kryptogram
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe961…ef1b with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
5
lifetime
PnL per $
-12%
historical realized
Win rate
51.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$32.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 5 resolved trades · -12% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
7
Distinct markets
4
Volume (90d)
$45.0K
avg $6,432 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$29.8K / $15.2K
net direction
Recent trades
last 7 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 10:12 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $11.1K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 10:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $13.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 05:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $1,486 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 23, 02:24 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.057 | $1,995 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 23, 02:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $2,357 | — |
| Jun 23, 01:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $8,639 | — |
| May 15, 08:55 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $5,695 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
4 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Tech | 3 | $24.7K | $-2,735 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Other | 2 | $12.6K | +$9,638 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Tech | 1 | $5,695 | +$5,695 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $1,995 | +$1,995 |