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WatchWhalesMethodologyResearch

Research wing

Our public experiments — including the ones that failed.

Track record

The full track record of the cheap-band thesis — the forward test that said no.

Strategies

Paper portfolios, including the auto-paused baselines.

Cheap Conviction

The live detector feed from the prediction era.

Arbitrage

Cross-venue spread between Polymarket and Kalshi — arithmetic edge, not a prediction.

Backtest

The 135K-trade resolution replay that motivated the cheap-band thesis in the first place. Bring your own rules.

Audits

Independent calibration write-ups, including the audit that killed our own wallet-reputation gate.

Why we keep this public: the watchtower's credibility is the whole product.