The Watchtower
Every big Polymarket bet, scored against a public insider rubric (v1). Flags at 60+. Receipts, not accusations.
1,112 flags · 91 won · 15 lost · 1,006 pending30s poll
| Score | When | Wallet | Bet | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65/100 | 15d ago | Marc345 | $5,000 NO @ 95.0¢ | Iran leadership change by July 31? | pending |
| 80/100 | 15d ago | The899 | $7,967 YES @ 93.7¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | won |
| 80/100 | 15d ago | motherT | $3,996 NO @ 99.9¢ | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 20? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | Williamlu | $5,000 YES @ 41.0¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | Testeandoestoasi | $10.8K YES @ 58.9¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | leafokx | $4,883 YES @ 60.3¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | 0xc11ae69B9D652efdA0A87eeC2e32bEfCCd862cC9-1769632022307 | $6,358 YES @ 57.0¢ | Spain to score first vs. Argentina? | pending |
| 60/100 | 16d ago | mdbep | $4,816 NO @ 88.0¢ | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina? | lost |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | pessibye | $33.0K YES @ 58.5¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | pessibye | $6,247 YES @ 58.6¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | pessibye | $5,842 YES @ 58.6¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | MiqiFund | $4,862 YES @ 58.5¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | $5,000 YES @ 55.0¢ | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | pending | |
| 75/100 | 16d ago | 0x17F467b539dB1aa5788Fa78b5ad4538305CB931F-1782870863778 | $2,900 YES @ 55.0¢ | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | pessibye | $838.7K YES @ 58.5¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | pessibye | $3,910 YES @ 58.5¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 65/100 | 16d ago | $2,798 YES @ 3.7¢ | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | pending | |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | yamal19 | $20.5K YES @ 58.5¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 80/100 | 16d ago | defileo01 | $4,783 YES @ 26.0¢ | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | $7,504 YES @ 41.6¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending | |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | rambinsky | $778.1K YES @ 59.2¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | 0xA1ebaDe5dd027123B2748b10B55176965962e4bf-1782865301256 | $5,777 YES @ 55.0¢ | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | pending |
| 60/100 | 16d ago | last-train-2026 | $4,711 NO @ 98.6¢ | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | nansier | $4,878 YES @ 59.2¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | 0x78A9d9168ca5b6b75C8CDe9e20ee3eA5d9360faC-1782420134849 | $11.6K YES @ 41.3¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 85/100 | 16d ago | bluefish999 | $50.0K YES @ 26.3¢ | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | Alt4ir | $2,548 YES @ 59.2¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | CleanTaint70 | $19.3K YES @ 41.2¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 100/100 | 16d ago | $9,448 YES @ 7.7¢ | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending | |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | $2,900 YES @ 42.0¢ | Will IK Sirius win on 2026-07-19? | won | |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | martin2804 | $7,283 YES @ 59.2¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | LuckyMMM | $8,621 YES @ 40.9¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | lilsappenis | $4,076 YES @ 40.9¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | lilsappenis | $4,499 YES @ 40.9¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | yamal19 | $604.2K YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | yamal19 | $221.2K YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | yamal19 | $330.5K YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 100/100 | 16d ago | bitfattyreal | $20.0K YES @ 1.7¢ | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | stringxu | $4,386 YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 80/100 | 16d ago | $5,663 YES @ 26.8¢ | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | pending | |
| 75/100 | 16d ago | $15.8K NO @ 99.0¢ | ITF Women Darmstadt: Completed Match: Nastasja Schunk vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela | lost | |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | Ardillabtc | $28.6K YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 70/100 | 16d ago | Ardillabtc | $2,955 YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won |
| 65/100 | 16d ago | $5,035 NO @ 99.7¢ | Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | pending | |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | Thecathayan | $4,013 NO @ 59.1¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending |
| 90/100 | 16d ago | $2,600 YES @ 59.1¢ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | won | |
| 90/100 | 17d ago | 124edascdqw123 | $11.3K YES @ 54.0¢ | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | pending |
| 70/100 | 17d ago | $2,895 YES @ 41.0¢ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | pending | |
| 100/100 | 17d ago | maycha | $9,817 NO @ 68.5¢ | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | lost |
| 100/100 | 17d ago | focused-wren | $2,927 YES @ 3.3¢ | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina? | pending |
How scoring works — and what it can't prove: methodology.