Whale Activity

Live feed of $25K+ Polymarket BUYs with our audit framework's verdict on each.

Why our overlay is different

Most whale trackers just show the trade. We show whether to follow it. Every row is tagged with our methodology: would the live cheap-conviction gate fire? Is this in a band we already proved is net-negative? The receipts for each verdict are on /transparency and /methodology.

Sample is the last ~150 whale BUYs. Auto-refreshes every 30 seconds.

updated 0s ago · 30s poll · rep 19h fresh

Time	Size	Market	Side	Price	Wallet	Methodology
16m ago	$28.4K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.118	Magnumh	Killed band — neutral expectation
16m ago	$37.1K	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.941	qwertyjack✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
19m ago	$50.0K	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21?	BUY YES	0.999	Tttyh	Above conviction band — net-negative
24m ago	$48.0K	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.941	hansama231	Above conviction band — net-negative
26m ago	$134.1K	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.840	MrBlobby	Above conviction band — net-negative
28m ago	$112.9K	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.941	StasPanda	Above conviction band — net-negative
36m ago	$105.6K	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	ArmageddonRewardsBilly✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
40m ago	$65.0K	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.945	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
55m ago	$69.7K	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	omoi0i0✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
57m ago	$42.2K	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.840	junifund1	Above conviction band — net-negative
59m ago	$28.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.965	Magnumh	Above conviction band — net-negative
1h ago	$30.0K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.988	AshleySchaeffer	Above conviction band — net-negative
1h ago	$41.7K	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.762	shuanyang	Above conviction band — net-negative
1h ago	$112.7K	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.840	nuttypoo	Above conviction band — net-negative
1h ago	$29.5K	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.557	cnyek	—
1h ago	$74.5K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.600	0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241	—
1h ago	$75.6K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.600	0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241	—
1h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.710	ygggg1	Above conviction band — net-negative
2h ago	$47.0K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.590	0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241	—
2h ago	$164.5K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.620	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
2h ago	$29.9K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.620	sbsigner✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
2h ago	$85.9K	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	ScottyNooo	Above conviction band — net-negative
2h ago	$33.1K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.400	Sassy-Bucket	Killed band — neutral expectation
2h ago	$30.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.600	AshleySchaeffer	—
2h ago	$32.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.630	swisstony	Above conviction band — net-negative
2h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.350	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
2h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.350	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
2h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.350	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
2h ago	$200.2K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.350	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
2h ago	$49.8K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.350	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$41.2K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Qpkwks	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$250.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$68.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	0x8139E8F571eb4372ecc8498771f6a319Cb5bBe43-1767828467116	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$200.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$68.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	0x8139E8F571eb4372ecc8498771f6a319Cb5bBe43-1767828467116	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$250.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$200.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$27.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	suntori✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$54.1K	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY YES	0.575	NiNo999	—
3h ago	$176.3K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$201.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$100.9K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	Latina	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$136.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	0x8139E8F571eb4372ecc8498771f6a319Cb5bBe43-1767828467116	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$93.8K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.340	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$86.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	0x32b484581fc5606dE9C1e43AF4636b6Be9BC8B21-1774274303653✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$134.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$28.3K	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.950	swisstony	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$29.5K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.870	0x190eF2Bb8c23F222147684B9dCc6DDE2632fb11a-1769581826816	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$29.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	0xce80d88324cb4D080Da754aD95f2B4b42D709a82-1781952621820	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$50.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670		Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670		Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$25.0K	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.200	NiNo999	Cheap band — no rep
3h ago	$25.0K	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.200	NiNo999	Cheap band — no rep
3h ago	$157.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	Winnerdinnerchickenjr	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$44.1K	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY YES	0.650	cnyek	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$133.2K	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	tourists	Above conviction band — net-negative
3h ago	$90.3K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.330	0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$72.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.330	compcom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$26.3K	Germany leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.520	Foess	—
3h ago	$56.3K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.130	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$40.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.330	0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$30.8K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.330	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$56.4K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.330	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$79.3K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.130	compcom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$163.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.320	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$134.7K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.320	Slickvenom	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$56.9K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.320	skk1ch	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$47.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.320	skk1ch	Killed band — neutral expectation
3h ago	$34.5K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.690	ygggg1	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$100.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.690	Slickvenom	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$94.6K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.870	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$38.1K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	diooson	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$80.9K	Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.999	finalwhistle	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$96.3K	Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.999	backback	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$40.8K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$27.5K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	DonChon✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$199.8K	Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.999	67BrainRot	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$38.1K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	diooson	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$34.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	billmfia	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$51.5K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	Soarin22✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$38.0K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	gysh.qs	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$47.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	tennischamp	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$74.1K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$176.8K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$98.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$54.4K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	AV23IUa	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$81.6K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	Soarin22✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$33.8K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.999	finalwhistle	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$50.0K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.999	0x046B85245FcEc734f4736f173110f3E260f17062-1780959004416	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$104.1K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.999	finalwhistle	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$27.4K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.990	vkvkgjerkgk	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$30.0K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.990	bitmaster7	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$32.6K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.990	yupiiiiiiiii	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$39.2K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.988	vkvkgjerkgk	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$39.6K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.990	vkvkgjerkgk	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$42.9K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.920	swisstony	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$26.8K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.920	swisstony	Above conviction band — net-negative
4h ago	$28.3K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.980	swisstony	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$60.0K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.920	0x55f544a537F6B9F50a8D27E662C250E93418E2A0-1781547868675	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$94.1K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	neutralwave23✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$37.8K	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.980	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$42.4K	Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.999	Sisyphus.✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$40.5K	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	Tigerofthehood	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$77.3K	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY NO	0.860	diooson	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$83.3K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$150.7K	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.670	surfandturf	Above conviction band — net-negative
5h ago	$28.4K	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.940	winner877	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$398.0K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.995	WordleAddict✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$29.0K	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?	BUY YES	0.999	tphhh	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$40.5K	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.950	aff3	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$25.5K	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY NO	0.941	aff3	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$51.6K	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	BUY NO	0.889	mrwhite700	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$41.2K	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	Llalalala	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$65.6K	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.890	Llalalala	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$25.2K	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.106	0x10C9C247310da2a3cca8126459AD2Bdb114e85E4-1781287588534	Killed band — neutral expectation
7d ago	$49.8K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.995	tutrucks	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$46.5K	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.798	0x0a098E3eDFF9823C63B80916171cdcCfA765f5A6-1770983328438	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$37.5K	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.736	0x0a098E3eDFF9823C63B80916171cdcCfA765f5A6-1770983328438	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$32.3K	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.938	LuckyPierrot	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$26.1K	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994		Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$40.0K	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.992	C03B✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$50.0K	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.161	TB14	Killed band — neutral expectation
7d ago	$46.8K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.995	tsekinming01	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$41.0K	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.820	Key999	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$25.2K	Türkiye leading at halftime?	BUY NO	0.610	gardenshed✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$44.0K	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY NO	0.440	gardenshed✓	—
7d ago	$27.0K	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.812	0F62	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$32.1K	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.810	0F62	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$72.8K	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	BUY NO	0.911	mohahaha	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$43.3K	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY YES	0.809	0F62	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$501.0K	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	BUY NO	0.999	thegreengem	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$145.5K	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.997	0xheavy888	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$42.6K	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY YES	0.580	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185✓	—
7d ago	$390.2K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	MoronKiler	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$100.2K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	MoronKiler	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$97.5K	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	aekghas	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$302.5K	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.859	aekghas	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$141.9K	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	BUY NO	0.999	ArmageddonRewardsBilly✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$28.7K	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13?	BUY NO	0.999	Tttyh	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$65.0K	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY YES	0.999	67BrainRot	Above conviction band — net-negative
7d ago	$48.0K	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY YES	0.995	Lee-BN-Wallet	Above conviction band — net-negative

How to read this: 🟢 Conviction tier would fire our live gate today — follow the feed. 🟡 Watch is cheap-band but the wallet has no verified track record. ⚫ Killed band sits in a price range we narrowed past after live data (waves 29 + 31). 🔴 Net-negative is the backtest-validated losing zone.

Data sourced from on-chain Polymarket fills (Polygon CTF Exchange). We don't buy or sell anything for users — we just audit and label.