Whale Activity

Live feed of $25K+ Polymarket BUYs with our audit framework's verdict on each.

Why our overlay is different

Most whale trackers just show the trade. We show whether to follow it. Every row is tagged with our methodology: would the live cheap-conviction gate fire? Is this in a band we already proved is net-negative? The receipts for each verdict are on /transparency and /methodology.

Sample is the last ~150 whale BUYs. Auto-refreshes every 30 seconds.

updated 0s ago · 30s poll · rep 24h fresh

Time	Size	Market	Side	Price	Wallet	Methodology
16d ago	$47.5K	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY NO	0.950	TheEmprah	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$35.9K	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.850	TheEmprah	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$52.0K	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.936	Cbs710	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$25.9K	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.993	Flipadelphia	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$25.3K	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	BUY NO	0.991	antoinelegwr	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$25.0K	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.997	hideo	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$26.9K	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 20?	BUY NO	0.998	YautjaPM2	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$27.6K	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.769	coali10	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$70.2K	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.710	aenews2✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$37.5K	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	BUY NO	0.998	Trustinghorse	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$39.5K	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.710	eightpenguins	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$46.9K	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.994		Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$44.1K	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	thoodr	Above conviction band — net-negative
16d ago	$26.5K	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	thoodr	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$73.3K	Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?	BUY NO	0.958	mooseborzoi	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$39.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xF1c841E09ee85a4b1e78c67082Fd4958D6022592-1783967579715	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$39.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.997	0xF1c841E09ee85a4b1e78c67082Fd4958D6022592-1783967579715	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$39.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xF1c841E09ee85a4b1e78c67082Fd4958D6022592-1783967579715	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$31.1K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998	fsd13132	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$49.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xdaec6156FF363Ae9c63d621fb2d16b7e40662F83-1783967548102	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$32.4K	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY NO	0.998		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$54.4K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xdaec6156FF363Ae9c63d621fb2d16b7e40662F83-1783967548102	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$53.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xF1c841E09ee85a4b1e78c67082Fd4958D6022592-1783967579715	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$39.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0xF1c841E09ee85a4b1e78c67082Fd4958D6022592-1783967579715	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$53.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0x3cc231B3D377CDBd0DC940005461687fA5ECa33d-1783967615293	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$39.9K	Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?	BUY NO	0.998	0x3cc231B3D377CDBd0DC940005461687fA5ECa33d-1783967615293	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$33.9K	Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.880	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$89.9K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	chopperfan	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$53.9K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$92.5K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.937	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$30.9K	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.999	0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$94.6K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.940	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$29.3K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.989	SquareBobSpongePants	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$75.0K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.962	SquareBobSpongePants	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$28.0K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.930	Pro-Trader44	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$29.9K	Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY NO	0.999	S-Works	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$37.7K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.942	0x09beD1976600971Fd9f9Db454a9c302C7A559c32-1779171276281	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$100.0K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.411	Sunguyen86✓	—
17d ago	$75.0K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.704	SquareBobSpongePants	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$70.5K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.705	vkvkgjerkgk	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$28.7K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.312	0x82c8aD5A1eF2E35B497bfE95Af7794b4D91ea5dB-1771780634124	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$79.3K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.997	lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$40.9K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.997		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$98.8K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.973	hk04as04	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$28.7K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.963	mooseborzoi	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$37.4K	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.997	0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$171.7K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.900	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$50.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.316	suntori	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$105.4K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.670	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$75.0K	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.998	refzer	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$76.8K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.528	cnyek✓	—
17d ago	$33.9K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.665	richrichrichsad	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$26.4K	Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals	BUY NO	0.999		Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$26.3K	Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals	BUY NO	0.995	TIMETOMAKEIT	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$49.8K	Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals	BUY NO	0.995	cypya	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$57.8K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.442	Oddscompiler	—
17d ago	$34.6K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.432	Oddscompiler	—
17d ago	$45.6K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.720	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$50.9K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.710	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$80.1K	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.979	0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$26.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.610	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$40.0K	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.974	wan123✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$27.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.393	0xEC445C8BEE160281558EbB9B083AC0025006C92b-1769822891061	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$41.0K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.410	Neonbruv✓	—
17d ago	$98.1K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.393	0xEC445C8BEE160281558EbB9B083AC0025006C92b-1769822891061	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$49.2K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.410	Neonbruv✓	—
17d ago	$40.0K	Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY NO	0.760	ethanaz✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$44.8K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.407	Neonbruv✓	—
17d ago	$70.3K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.405	Neonbruv✓	—
17d ago	$30.3K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.639	HBAFlover98	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$26.4K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.619	HBAFlover98	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$30.2K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.337	cnyek✓	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$131.0K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.421	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	—
17d ago	$44.2K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.595	matenghehe	—
17d ago	$98.6K	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.962	TAIWANNUMBERONE✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$33.0K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.585	pessibye	—
17d ago	$28.2K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.470	0xC41D736bDed9ED1acCD6A44235039266219774fD-1777101352681✓	—
17d ago	$32.3K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.460	0xC41D736bDed9ED1acCD6A44235039266219774fD-1777101352681✓	—
17d ago	$25.7K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.451	bubanana✓	—
17d ago	$46.8K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY YES	0.550	chae1	—
17d ago	$41.6K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.416	CandleHammerDrums	—
17d ago	$33.7K	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.985	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$37.5K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY NO	0.460	CORGI8✓	—
17d ago	$94.7K	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?	BUY YES	0.120	Oddscompiler	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$41.9K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.425	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185	—
17d ago	$98.3K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.328	111111111115	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$46.5K	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.930	vgybhu	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$26.0K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.743	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$53.3K	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.964	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$127.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.425	jfdddd	—
17d ago	$35.8K	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.890	DavidTrezeguet✓	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$85.0K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.425	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185	—
17d ago	$42.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.425	jfdddd	—
17d ago	$146.3K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.325	Neonbruv✓	Killed band — neutral expectation
17d ago	$310.5K	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.984	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$166.8K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.417	CandleHammerDrums	—
17d ago	$132.8K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.585		—
17d ago	$52.4K	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.972	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$37.2K	Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY YES	0.550	meoooow	—
17d ago	$34.3K	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.417		—
17d ago	$35.6K	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.991	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$29.7K	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.999	tsybka	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$54.2K	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.677	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$33.4K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.422	0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-1722957908185	—
17d ago	$57.0K	Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.932	maxiforza	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$45.3K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.422		—
17d ago	$212.0K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$108.5K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$59.3K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$52.1K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$234.6K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	maz26	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$838.7K	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.585	pessibye	—
17d ago	$161.8K	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.964	ndb1	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$55.5K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.575	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	—
17d ago	$80.6K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.575	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	—
17d ago	$152.3K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.575	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	—
17d ago	$115.0K	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.575	0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	—
17d ago	$27.3K	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY YES	0.263	qiqimao	Cheap band — no rep
17d ago	$37.4K	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.935	vgybhu	Above conviction band — net-negative
17d ago	$101.3K	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.920	DavidTrezeguet✓	Above conviction band — net-negative

How to read this: 🟢 Conviction tier would fire our live gate today — follow the feed. 🟡 Watch is cheap-band but the wallet has no verified track record. ⚫ Killed band sits in a price range we narrowed past after live data (waves 29 + 31). 🔴 Net-negative is the backtest-validated losing zone.

Data sourced from on-chain Polymarket fills (Polygon CTF Exchange). We don't buy or sell anything for users — we just audit and label.