| Jul 20, 06:34 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $9,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 12:01 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,560 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 05:31 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.580 | $1,160 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 02:12 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 02:00 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.913 | $2,079 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 03:14 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $9,420 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 03:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 04:47 PM | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,791 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 09:17 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $1,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 08:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $9,970 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 04:49 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $4,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 09:45 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 09:24 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 03:25 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.189 | $3,780 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 03:54 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $13.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 02:38 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $8,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 02:37 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $8,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 09:34 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.327 | $2,943 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 09:25 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 09:04 PM | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $25.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 04:45 PM | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $6,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 02:09 AM | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY YES | 0.151 | $1,436 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 10:00 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $1,202 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 3, 07:07 PM | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,020 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 01:35 AM | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $12.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 2, 01:30 AM | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | SELL YES | 0.740 | $3,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 09:21 PM | Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 01:55 PM | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,015 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 12:05 PM | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY YES | 0.390 | $7,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 30, 11:47 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 11:19 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.947 | $2,841 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 05:32 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 10:55 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 10:49 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $28.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 02:37 AM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $7,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 04:41 PM | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $36.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $2,646 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $9,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:13 AM | Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $7,036 | —— |
| Jun 27, 11:57 PM | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $2,650 | —— |
| Jun 27, 11:43 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 11:42 PM | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY NO | 0.977 | $8,018 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 11:31 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $2,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 03:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.867 | $1,735 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 12:06 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.057 | $1,140 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 24, 07:34 PM | Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,350 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 24, 05:06 PM | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $2,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 03:26 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 03:14 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $19.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 11:31 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $7,147 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 10:48 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.132 | $1,320 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 22, 07:01 PM | Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $6,916 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 06:05 PM | Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,699 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 02:25 PM | Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $3,678 | —— |
| Jun 22, 01:00 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 06:49 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $7,182 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 05:27 PM | Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,012 | —— |
| Jun 21, 02:09 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $5,752 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:45 PM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $3,300 | —— |
| Jun 20, 06:32 PM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $3,300 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:36 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $1,240 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:28 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $4,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:57 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,351 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:04 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $2,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,640 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:05 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:50 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $1,782 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:47 PM | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $2,979 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:25 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,789 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:29 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $1,265 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:23 PM | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:45 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $3,899 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:45 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $2,929 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 07:00 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $4,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 06:50 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,230 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.310 | $2,786 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:45 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $3,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:43 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $6,429 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:41 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $9,770 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:41 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $9,770 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:38 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $1,019 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 03:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $8,228 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:31 PM | Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $5,847 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 02:31 AM | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,228 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:55 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $9,726 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:54 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,820 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:49 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $5,347 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:47 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $3,976 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 05:48 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $1,013 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:44 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $1,789 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:43 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $2,988 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 01:17 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $5,833 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 12:32 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $4,002 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $7,818 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $4,875 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:00 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $3,332 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 08:20 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $6,963 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 08:18 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $5,274 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 08:18 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $4,467 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 08:17 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.977 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 08:11 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $4,286 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:39 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.977 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:34 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $2,285 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 06:33 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:30 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $49.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 03:25 PM | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:53 AM | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.941 | $2,371 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:00 AM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $2,144 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:58 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $9,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:36 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,415 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:35 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $2,190 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:29 AM | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $3,688 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:28 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $1,014 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:49 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $10.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:48 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $2,042 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 09:39 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,984 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:23 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $2,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:20 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:13 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:10 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $2,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:26 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:58 PM | 0x71c49500 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $7,699 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.739 | $1,479 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:13 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $8,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:08 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $5,688 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:07 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.959 | $1,696 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:20 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.578 | $1,219 | —— |
| May 29, 03:01 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.835 | $2,322 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:20 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,012 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:17 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $4,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:16 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:51 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $3,832 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 11:46 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.191 | $1,509 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:49 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.230 | $3,530 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 03:11 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $1,537 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 03:11 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,533 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,016 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:08 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:24 AM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $1,527 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 01:16 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.993 | $7,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:15 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $7,131 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:08 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $5,592 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:54 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $2,340 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 11:51 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $2,916 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $4,050 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:44 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.993 | $8,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:04 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.967 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 03:54 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,101 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:38 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $35.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:54 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.988 | $16.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:06 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $5,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:37 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $3,120 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:36 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,204 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:36 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $2,422 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 01:39 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.959 | $1,918 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:54 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $2,340 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 08:12 PM | 0x098afead | SELL NO | 0.950 | $1,425 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 07:45 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $1,358 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 05:50 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,366 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 05:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:54 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.971 | $2,863 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:49 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $2,585 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 01:25 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,879 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 01:25 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:05 AM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,260 | —— |
| May 20, 01:26 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $1,639 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:55 PM | 0x098afead | BUY NO | 0.820 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:50 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $3,550 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 04:19 PM | 0xe3033b16 | BUY NO | 0.610 | $6,009 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:26 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:35 AM | 0x789c947a | SELL NO | 0.991 | $8,152 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 01:47 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 01:21 AM | 0x3ded5a57 | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,633 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 01:18 AM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $1,332 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:41 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $1,938 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:40 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $11.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:39 PM | 0x789c947a | BUY NO | 0.992 | $8,161 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 12:39 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:05 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 01:11 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $2,629 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 01:11 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $2,643 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 12:07 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,034 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 12:00 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:35 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 06:23 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.721 | $1,082 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 03:34 PM | 0x9f1b7421 | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,447 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:07 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $13.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 02:04 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $32.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 03:22 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $1,292 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 03:21 AM | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $2,327 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 09:56 AM | 0x65f204a8 | SELL YES | 0.992 | $3,869 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:16 PM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $1,830 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:56 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 02:31 PM | 0x2509daa2 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,051 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |