MisTKy

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x35bb…009b with our methodology badges per row.

0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

435

lifetime

PnL per $

-5%

historical realized

Win rate

62.5%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$2.07M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 435 resolved trades · -5% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$927.2K

avg $4,636 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$777.5K / $149.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 05:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.270	$2,750	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 20, 05:10 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.270	$8,759	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 20, 03:43 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.378	$1,950	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 01:49 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.512	$1,095	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 01:33 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.603	$1,155	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 01:09 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.700	$1,961	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 12:19 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.430	$5,107	—
Jul 20, 11:44 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.640	$3,245	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:39 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.620	$2,132	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 10:57 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 10:57 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.797	$1,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:49 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.900	$3,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:48 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	BUY NO	0.530	$1,227	—
Jul 19, 08:47 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	BUY NO	0.520	$1,224	—
Jul 19, 06:20 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.610	$1,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 05:32 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,953	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PM	US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?	SELL NO	0.860	$1,693	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:17 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	BUY YES	0.148	$1,478	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 18, 09:09 PM	US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?	SELL NO	0.861	$5,086	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 08:23 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	SELL YES	0.949	$1,995	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 08:14 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?	BUY YES	0.982	$2,870	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 08:07 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:20 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?	BUY YES	0.979	$4,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:12 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,316	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:12 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,296	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 06:54 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.300	$1,155	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 18, 05:50 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	SELL NO	0.510	$1,031	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 05:20 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.290	$20.0K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 18, 05:17 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	BUY NO	0.510	$2,963	—
Jul 18, 05:17 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.580	$2,365	—
Jul 18, 05:15 PM	US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?	BUY NO	0.928	$6,389	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 05:13 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 05:13 PM	US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?	BUY NO	0.849	$5,710	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:40 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	BUY NO	0.880	$4,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 12:56 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY NO	0.600	$1,042	—
Jul 18, 08:05 AM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	SELL NO	0.991	$3,964	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 08:25 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	BUY NO	0.976	$6,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:44 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.975	$2,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:00 PM	Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:00 PM	Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,628	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:53 PM	Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:10 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	BUY NO	0.964	$13.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:02 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.250	$15.0K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 17, 02:13 PM	Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:56 PM	Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:25 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 10:30 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.462	$1,077	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 09:42 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.640	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:15 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.640	$2,554	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:06 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.740	$2,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:20 AM	Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,365	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:42 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	SELL NO	0.460	$2,146	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 08:28 PM	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	BUY NO	0.440	$4,777	—
Jul 16, 09:56 AM	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$2,948	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:10 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.210	$2,076	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:42 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.210	$2,902	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 03:09 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.895	$6,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:09 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.891	$2,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:09 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.049	$1,435	—
Jul 15, 01:58 PM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:58 PM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.958	$1,916	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:24 AM	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	BUY YES	0.809	$1,273	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:06 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.988	$2,529	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:24 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,431	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:23 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.958	$2,453	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:21 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.970	$1,675	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:13 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.971	$1,553	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:06 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$4,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:06 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.967	$5,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:05 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.957	$14.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:05 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.943	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:05 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.932	$13.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:05 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.822	$1,397	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:04 PM	US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.863	$3,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:32 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.868	$59.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:31 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.870	$4,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:18 AM	Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,762	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:46 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.210	$10.4K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 12, 05:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY NO	0.380	$2,459	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 11, 09:44 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	SELL NO	0.540	$1,556	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 06:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.070	$1,082	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 06:40 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	SELL NO	0.936	$2,241	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 06:35 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	SELL NO	0.952	$4,749	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 05:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.080	$1,237	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 03:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.100	$2,000	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 03:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.110	$1,252	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 03:14 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.110	$2,059	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 02:31 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.600	$2,057	—
Jul 11, 02:12 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.100	$6,069	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 11, 02:11 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	BUY YES	0.226	$1,197	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 11, 02:11 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.090	$7,946	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 11, 01:54 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	BUY NO	0.957	$2,871	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:38 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.990	$3,465	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.950	$3,473	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 06:25 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$7,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 05:13 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.972	$3,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:23 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.875	$5,348	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:08 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.884	$3,641	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:07 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?	BUY NO	0.668	$2,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:56 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.878	$1,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:16 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,373	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 12:43 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.560	$5,580	—
Jul 10, 12:23 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.840	$4,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 07:18 PM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 06:47 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.699	$5,898	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:03 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$7,439	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:00 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY YES	0.172	$1,048	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 09:35 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.200	$3,174	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 8, 09:34 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.800	$2,801	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 08:15 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	BUY YES	0.280	$2,885	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 8, 06:43 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.760	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:50 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.750	$4,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:53 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$7,316	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:32 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.998	$19.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:06 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.560	$3,100	—
Jul 7, 06:49 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL YES	0.242	$1,271	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 06:24 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.201	$1,008	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 6, 09:38 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.812	$8,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:32 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.299	$3,268	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 6, 09:26 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.698	$5,342	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:15 PM	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	SELL YES	0.900	$13.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:06 PM	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:45 PM	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	BUY YES	0.930	$18.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:59 PM	Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:58 PM	Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY NO	0.998	$7,829	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:47 PM	Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:32 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	SELL YES	0.910	$1,329	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 07:44 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.800	$1,272	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 07:36 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 07:10 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.871	$4,859	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 03:16 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.865	$1,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:15 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.864	$7,061	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:13 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.862	$6,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:21 PM	US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	BUY YES	0.620	$3,836	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:51 AM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:43 PM	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	BUY NO	0.490	$2,007	—
Jul 2, 05:06 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.890	$22.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 01:49 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.880	$21.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:33 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.850	$31.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:33 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.840	$9,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:41 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.290	$5,672	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 08:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.300	$1,146	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 08:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.300	$1,977	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 05:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.310	$4,478	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 04:30 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$5,868	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:55 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.852	$4,507	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 08:52 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.890	$1,771	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 08:41 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,218	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 08:35 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	$8,681	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:34 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$4,457	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 07:14 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:20 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:02 AM	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,176	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:29 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.182	$2,275	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 10:10 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.730	$1,473	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:10 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.716	$3,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:10 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.696	$2,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 04:21 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.576	$2,177	—
Jun 29, 02:42 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.570	$1,053	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 09:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.440	$2,375	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:31 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.400	$4,318	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:23 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.360	$7,904	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 08:23 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.350	$8,243	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 08:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.949	$9,756	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 08:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.949	$6,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 08:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	BUY NO	0.770	$5,743	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 08:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.688	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:50 PM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.962	$2,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:49 PM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.934	$1,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:36 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,554	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 03:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.460	$1,198	—
Jun 26, 03:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.450	$3,181	—
Jun 26, 03:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.660	$3,473	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.650	$1,670	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.896	$5,417	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	BUY NO	0.740	$2,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.640	$4,187	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:37 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.620	$1,257	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:20 PM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$4,056	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:02 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.870	$1,654	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 12:00 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$6,687	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 11:01 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.892	$3,886	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 11:01 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.598	$3,351	—
Jun 26, 06:03 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,588	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.458	$6,866	—
Jun 25, 05:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.646	$6,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:18 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.972	$4,906	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 03:09 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.390	$1,996	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 03:06 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.876	$3,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.340	$1,720	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 01:20 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.994	$5,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 01:13 PM	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.579	$5,785	—
Jun 25, 12:54 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,035	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:24 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.998	$31.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:28 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.430	$5,897	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 08:00 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.460	$1,911	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 07:53 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY YES	0.240	$2,808	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 24, 07:51 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY YES	0.460	$9,496	—
Jun 24, 07:26 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,982	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

70 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	24	$93.5K	+$30.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	6	$89.5K	+$44.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	8	$63.0K	+$58.9K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$59.2K	+$59.2K
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	Other	8	$49.1K	+$32.7K
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	6	$38.6K	+$25.3K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Other	12	$37.2K	+$17.5K
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	Other	3	$33.3K	+$5,987
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	1	$31.9K	+$31.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	5	$28.8K	+$28.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	8	$25.6K	+$25.6K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	Other	3	$24.0K	+$16.1K
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Other	9	$20.7K	+$12.3K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	4	$19.2K	+$9,482
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Tech	6	$18.6K	+$4,668
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Other	5	$17.5K	+$14.8K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	Other	4	$16.7K	+$11.1K
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Other	2	$14.6K	+$11.7K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Other	6	$13.4K	+$7,013
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	Other	2	$13.2K	+$13.2K
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?	Other	3	$12.5K	$-1,069
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?	Other	4	$12.3K	+$12.3K
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Other	3	$11.2K	+$11.2K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?	Other	3	$10.6K	+$10.6K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Other	4	$9,942	+$9,942
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	Tech	3	$9,754	+$9,754
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	3	$9,539	+$6,230
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	Other	3	$9,194	+$6,081
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Other	2	$8,385	+$8,385
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Other	1	$7,439	+$7,439

Showing top 30 by volume.