| Jul 19, 12:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $7,912 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 12:19 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 15+ times during Speech to the Nation? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $1,381 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 03:45 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,629 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 03:45 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $1,137 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 03:45 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $6,579 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 02:39 PM | Will Trump say "Female" this week? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,471 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 05:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $29.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 04:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $29.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 08:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $48.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 08:41 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $30.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 03:24 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,597 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:22 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $6,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:19 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $11.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 02:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $3,980 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 02:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $33.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 02:11 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $4,378 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 02:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $9,950 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 09:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $13.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 07:57 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $50.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 02:45 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,131 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 12:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $38.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 03:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $28.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 01:12 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $14.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 07:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $29.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:15 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.179 | $2,193 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 12:05 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,378 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 12:20 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.478 | $5,068 | —— |
| Jul 7, 12:17 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,802 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 10:54 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $4,709 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 10:28 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,064 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 10:21 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.272 | $1,120 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 10:20 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.154 | $4,061 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 05:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $1,359 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 05:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $9,830 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 03:43 AM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.047 | $6,290 | —— |
| Jul 6, 01:25 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $2,059 | —— |
| Jul 5, 11:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $32.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 5, 10:20 PM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.043 | $7,980 | —— |
| Jul 5, 10:14 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.051 | $1,575 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 10:12 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.051 | $2,625 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 03:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $68.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 02:45 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.057 | $4,693 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 12:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $22.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 04:48 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $1,257 | —— |
| Jul 2, 06:36 PM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.026 | $6,963 | —— |
| Jul 2, 01:53 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $2,353 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 01:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $9,970 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 2, 01:49 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.056 | $2,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 01:48 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $4,706 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 01:03 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $1,629 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 12:44 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $2,310 | —— |
| Jul 2, 12:05 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.182 | $4,550 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 12:00 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.031 | $1,426 | —— |
| Jul 1, 11:40 PM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.029 | $2,146 | —— |
| Jul 1, 11:39 PM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.028 | $1,904 | —— |
| Jul 1, 10:12 PM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.030 | $1,320 | —— |
| Jul 1, 10:11 PM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.028 | $1,400 | —— |
| Jul 1, 09:27 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.082 | $2,162 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 08:12 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.184 | $2,006 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 08:11 PM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.028 | $1,288 | —— |
| Jul 1, 05:54 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $3,420 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 05:41 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.195 | $1,563 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 05:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 03:57 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.056 | $1,904 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 02:03 PM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.027 | $3,915 | —— |
| Jul 1, 02:36 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.030 | $1,440 | —— |
| Jul 1, 02:30 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.027 | $1,620 | —— |
| Jul 1, 02:16 AM | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.023 | $1,150 | —— |
| Jun 29, 02:40 PM | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $1,095 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 04:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $3,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 02:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $5,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 10:46 PM | Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $1,316 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 09:38 PM | Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? | BUY YES | 0.108 | $1,465 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 05:10 PM | Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? | BUY NO | 0.894 | $3,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 12:58 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 07:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $3,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 06:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,957 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 06:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $3,191 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 03:20 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $9,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 06:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $33.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 11:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.520 | $2,600 | —— |
| Jun 22, 10:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $7,810 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 09:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $2,365 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 08:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $20.4K | —— |
| Jun 22, 08:35 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $38.3K | —— |
| Jun 21, 06:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,559 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,140 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $5,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,885 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:16 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,095 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 06:35 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.122 | $9,012 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:30 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.074 | $1,049 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:20 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,548 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:07 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.049 | $1,283 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:02 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.173 | $6,130 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.219 | $2,342 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 07:47 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.179 | $1,760 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $11.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:45 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:06 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.170 | $2,040 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 11:29 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.160 | $6,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.030 | $3,000 | —— |
| Jun 9, 08:41 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $3,586 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 08:40 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $1,760 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 08:22 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $2,640 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 07:52 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $3,520 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:38 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.837 | $11.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:38 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $1,186 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:36 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,124 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 9, 04:25 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY YES | 0.237 | $1,626 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 01:25 AM | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.945 | $1,034 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:08 PM | 0x0e2e5c01 | BUY NO | 0.987 | $6,191 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 05:53 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,213 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 05:52 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $2,262 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:14 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $2,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 02:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $1,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,580 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 05:01 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $5,538 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:29 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.190 | $3,087 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 03:04 AM | 0x0615f848 | BUY YES | 0.975 | $1,268 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:16 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.359 | $1,284 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 11:50 PM | 0xe033fd23 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,321 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 01:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $2,333 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:24 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,690 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 05:57 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.247 | $2,117 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,820 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:20 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:16 PM | 0x71c49500 | BUY YES | 0.338 | $1,004 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.106 | $6,768 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:53 PM | 0x71c49500 | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,580 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:53 PM | 0xb03509e2 | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,791 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 12:32 AM | 0xfede3304 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,064 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:32 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.014 | $1,166 | —— |
| May 25, 02:03 AM | 0xffb8a1a5 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $2,416 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:37 AM | 0x7ec0ac0f | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,879 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:57 AM | 0x7fcb3b19 | BUY YES | 0.598 | $2,390 | —— |
| May 19, 01:51 AM | 0x0f274f4e | BUY YES | 0.810 | $4,065 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:49 AM | 0x60555920 | BUY YES | 0.740 | $2,233 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:49 AM | 0x60555920 | BUY YES | 0.689 | $2,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:49 AM | 0x0f274f4e | BUY YES | 0.770 | $2,339 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 09:20 PM | 0x4c98f122 | BUY NO | 0.949 | $1,068 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:19 PM | 0x4c98f122 | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,669 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:11 PM | 0x4c98f122 | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,820 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:10 PM | 0x4382d7a5 | SELL YES | 0.999 | $20.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:03 PM | 0x22014d44 | BUY YES | 0.076 | $2,539 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 06:57 PM | 0x4c98f122 | BUY NO | 0.890 | $3,462 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 02:50 PM | 0x4c98f122 | BUY YES | 0.641 | $2,899 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 01:29 PM | 0x4382d7a5 | BUY YES | 0.650 | $1,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:03 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,132 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 05:01 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | BUY NO | 0.988 | $3,705 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |