| Jul 20, 08:33 AM | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $7,431 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 08:03 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY YES | 0.439 | $3,148 | —— |
| Jul 20, 07:59 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY YES | 0.038 | $1,632 | —— |
| Jul 20, 07:55 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | SELL YES | 0.740 | $4,103 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:45 AM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $2,566 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 20, 07:45 AM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $3,101 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 20, 07:40 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $7,456 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:39 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY YES | 0.602 | $11.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:29 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $2,467 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 06:46 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | SELL YES | 0.520 | $1,839 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 19, 05:31 PM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY YES | 0.612 | $3,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:06 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $5,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 09:05 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY YES | 0.572 | $4,887 | —— |
| Jul 19, 08:43 AM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,790 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 01:04 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $1,603 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 18, 03:35 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.051 | $1,485 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 05:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $2,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 05:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $13.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 05:57 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $4,317 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 04:58 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY YES | 0.101 | $2,206 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 04:21 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.164 | $1,303 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 09:39 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | BUY YES | 0.064 | $1,386 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 09:09 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | BUY YES | 0.046 | $1,400 | —— |
| Jul 17, 09:02 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.127 | $1,545 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 09:01 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.118 | $2,020 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 08:53 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY YES | 0.449 | $2,100 | —— |
| Jul 17, 08:51 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.107 | $1,358 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 06:02 AM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.243 | $3,079 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 12:56 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY YES | 0.476 | $1,615 | —— |
| Jul 17, 12:53 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $10,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 12:52 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.102 | $1,251 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 16, 06:16 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | BUY YES | 0.059 | $2,929 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 16, 06:36 AM | 0xc6e54956 | BUY YES | 0.189 | $1,703 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 09:18 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.111 | $2,982 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 08:40 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $10.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 08:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $10.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 08:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $20.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 06:44 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.142 | $1,897 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 03:53 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY YES | 0.121 | $3,602 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 04:53 AM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.697 | $8,057 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 07:33 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY YES | 0.218 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 14, 07:09 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.321 | $4,295 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 07:08 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY YES | 0.183 | $2,238 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 02:52 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $7,520 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 03:16 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $5,297 | —— |
| Jul 13, 02:21 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,328 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 13, 02:21 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? | BUY YES | 0.513 | $3,920 | —— |
| Jul 13, 12:30 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.304 | $7,638 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 02:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.030 | $6,687 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 08:24 PM | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.200 | $2,003 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 12, 08:24 PM | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $2,968 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 12, 02:23 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $5,476 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 12, 02:15 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY NO | 0.825 | $24.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 04:31 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.059 | $2,263 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 04:31 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $2,056 | —— |
| Jul 12, 02:52 AM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.433 | $30.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 01:17 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $2,640 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 01:01 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL YES | 0.182 | $1,821 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 12:12 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.643 | $2,541 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 12:11 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.597 | $1,829 | —— |
| Jul 12, 12:10 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY YES | 0.116 | $1,241 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 12:10 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY YES | 0.144 | $2,194 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 12:10 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY YES | 0.176 | $1,769 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 12:06 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY YES | 0.179 | $1,899 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 12:00 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY YES | 0.054 | $1,119 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 11:59 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY YES | 0.163 | $3,345 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 11:57 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.784 | $7,501 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 11:29 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.793 | $2,416 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 11:08 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.779 | $31.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 09:01 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.216 | $4,315 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 11, 03:15 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $5,105 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 03:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.134 | $15.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 10, 10:21 PM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY NO | 0.624 | $5,067 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 10:17 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.259 | $1,152 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 10, 10:16 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.226 | $2,296 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 10, 09:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $5,817 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 10, 09:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $5,988 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 12:10 PM | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY YES | 0.152 | $1,194 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 12:09 PM | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY NO | 0.153 | $1,654 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 02:01 AM | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17? | BUY NO | 0.075 | $2,022 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 8, 12:23 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $1,624 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 8, 12:11 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,376 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 07:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $23.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 05:59 PM | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:32 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.207 | $1,693 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 7, 01:23 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.386 | $6,900 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 12:46 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.623 | $12.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 08:26 PM | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $4,673 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 11:40 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.893 | $13.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 11:36 AM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $45.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 01:58 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 01:58 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $2,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 01:51 AM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 5, 07:51 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | BUY NO | 0.603 | $5,703 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 07:17 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | BUY NO | 0.575 | $12.9K | —— |
| Jul 5, 07:09 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $17.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 5, 07:01 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | BUY NO | 0.545 | $13.0K | —— |
| Jul 5, 01:02 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.142 | $2,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 12:01 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.146 | $3,063 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 12:01 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $5,338 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 10:10 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $2,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 09:46 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $6,109 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 09:33 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 09:20 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $3,748 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 09:17 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 09:44 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,651 | —— |
| Jul 4, 09:43 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $1,429 | —— |
| Jul 4, 04:45 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $3,084 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 10:36 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.184 | $6,844 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 10:14 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.879 | $4,922 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 10:07 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $8,048 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 08:32 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $7,536 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 07:35 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $7,452 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 07:22 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.296 | $3,636 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 3, 07:02 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $45.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 06:52 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $4,456 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 06:46 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $7,506 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 06:31 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.838 | $8,219 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 06:28 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.812 | $7,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 06:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $7,623 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 11:53 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,985 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 10:35 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,487 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 10:13 AM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.089 | $1,041 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 3, 10:03 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.049 | $4,781 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 10:03 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.101 | $3,018 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 09:27 AM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.006 | $1,103 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 09:10 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $10.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 09:10 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $27.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 3, 09:09 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,845 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 3, 08:15 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $31.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 03:28 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,572 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 03:11 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,041 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 12:53 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.007 | $1,358 | —— |
| Jul 2, 11:27 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.237 | $1,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 1, 10:03 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,885 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $3,334 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 05:32 PM | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY NO | 0.140 | $1,332 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 03:39 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $14.1K | —— |
| Jul 1, 03:35 PM | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $4,317 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 03:25 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $1,883 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 03:21 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $78.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 03:19 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.198 | $18.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 03:08 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.928 | $5,802 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 03:07 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.327 | $2,207 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 02:48 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $40.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 02:44 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $28.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 01:46 PM | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $17.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 08:05 PM | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,174 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 06:44 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $1,486 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 04:42 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $1,824 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 04:37 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.599 | $5,747 | —— |
| Jun 30, 04:33 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.577 | $5,195 | —— |
| Jun 30, 04:22 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.648 | $7,149 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 04:02 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.435 | $2,588 | —— |
| Jun 30, 03:54 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.439 | $1,425 | —— |
| Jun 30, 03:32 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.605 | $3,979 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 03:24 PM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.549 | $1,237 | —— |
| Jun 30, 09:44 AM | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $5,464 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 09:43 AM | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.879 | $5,256 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 09:37 AM | Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 07:30 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $3,028 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 06:30 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,540 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 05:48 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $10.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 05:34 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.947 | $29.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:48 AM | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,349 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:38 AM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $7,438 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:38 AM | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $6,138 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:29 AM | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.102 | $1,207 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 30, 02:21 AM | Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:21 AM | Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $22.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:20 AM | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.943 | $25.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:17 AM | Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $1,304 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:17 AM | Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $1,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:16 AM | Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $3,113 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:15 AM | Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $3,551 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 01:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.005 | $1,223 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 11:44 PM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $1,793 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 29, 09:12 PM | Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? | BUY YES | 0.228 | $2,934 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 29, 09:12 PM | Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? | BUY NO | 0.230 | $1,483 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 27, 04:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,370 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 04:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.454 | $6,801 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 05:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.069 | $1,367 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 05:37 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,130 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 05:37 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.067 | $1,815 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 05:34 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $35.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 05:28 PM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY NO | 0.449 | $5,250 | —— |
| Jun 26, 09:19 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $8,422 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 09:18 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $6,717 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 07:38 AM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.092 | $2,146 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 03:21 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,755 | —— |
| Jun 25, 10:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.094 | $5,171 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 10:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $5,701 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 10:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.519 | $7,651 | —— |
| Jun 24, 11:51 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $2,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 08:33 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $5,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 08:32 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $10.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 08:32 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.353 | $3,129 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 24, 10:01 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.246 | $1,334 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 24, 10:00 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.245 | $3,170 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 24, 09:55 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.243 | $4,197 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |