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0x436f969D99c90191fBC2c629e6B7a1B754402c7F-1772236065502
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x436f…2c7f with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
18
lifetime
PnL per $
-27%
historical realized
Win rate
29.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$77.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 18 resolved trades · -27% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
35
Distinct markets
15
Volume (90d)
$155.0K
avg $4,430 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$26.7K / $128.3K
net direction
Recent trades
last 35 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 09:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.805 | $5,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:15 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.303 | $1,221 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:14 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.443 | $2,893 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:12 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.837 | $1,870 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:10 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.519 | $1,038 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:05 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.364 | $3,610 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 04:01 PM | 0x4bab360a | SELL YES | 0.235 | $1,411 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:50 PM | 0x416e3cbe | SELL YES | 0.103 | $2,868 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:39 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.884 | $1,769 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:34 PM | 0xd3026827 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $4,802 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:33 PM | 0x4bab360a | SELL YES | 0.343 | $1,468 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.572 | $1,817 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.580 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.580 | $1,841 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.589 | $4,674 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.617 | $3,085 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.792 | $28.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:56 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.264 | $9,047 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:55 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,500 | — |
| May 21, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $7,900 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:35 PM | 0x828aaec4 | SELL YES | 0.044 | $1,526 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:22 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.242 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 05:43 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.608 | $3,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 05:22 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | SELL YES | 0.360 | $3,043 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 07:03 PM | 0x416e3cbe | BUY YES | 0.255 | $1,500 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 01:37 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,500 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 01:32 AM | 0x4ba34832 | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,500 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 01:19 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,500 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 13, 02:32 PM | 0x4bab360a | BUY YES | 0.588 | $1,500 | — |
| May 12, 07:07 PM | 0xffe381a8 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $25.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 09:31 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.575 | $1,111 | — |
| May 10, 09:31 PM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.571 | $2,500 | — |
| May 10, 09:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $5,000 | — |
| May 10, 05:06 AM | 0xd3026827 | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,600 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:06 AM | 0xd3026827 | BUY NO | 0.790 | $2,500 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
15 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Other | 2 | $36.0K | $-35,996 |
| 0xffe381a8 | — | 1 | $25.6K | $-25,648 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Other | 2 | $22.1K | $-22,138 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Tech | 6 | $18.4K | $-8,444 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | Other | 5 | $9,943 | +$279 |
| 0xd3026827 | — | 3 | $8,902 | $-702 |
| 0xb7dd41c1 | — | 3 | $6,043 | $-43 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Tech | 1 | $5,000 | +$5,000 |
| 0x4bab360a | — | 3 | $4,379 | $-1,379 |
| 0x416e3cbe | — | 2 | $4,368 | $-1,368 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | Other | 2 | $3,931 | $-3,931 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Other | 2 | $3,638 | $-3,638 |
| 0x6114a8a3 | — | 1 | $3,580 | $-3,580 |
| 0x828aaec4 | — | 1 | $1,526 | $-1,526 |
| 0x4ba34832 | — | 1 | $1,500 | +$1,500 |