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0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xad96…d498 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
5
lifetime
PnL per $
-75%
historical realized
Win rate
21.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$12.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 5 resolved trades · -75% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
16
Distinct markets
13
Volume (90d)
$254.6K
avg $15.9K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$144.1K / $110.5K
net direction
Recent trades
last 16 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 07:41 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $22.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 12:29 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.770 | $1,634 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 07:43 AM | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,376 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 08:24 PM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $1,493 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:40 PM | 0xcddc048c | SELL NO | 0.997 | $8,125 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:40 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $6,445 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 05:39 AM | 0xfb3249f5 | BUY NO | 0.975 | $2,374 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:05 AM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.982 | $13.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 12:36 AM | 0x5341e90b | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,481 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:16 AM | 0x7f4378c2 | SELL NO | 0.971 | $21.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:16 AM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.971 | $38.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:15 AM | 0x5341e90b | SELL NO | 0.972 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 02:42 AM | 0xa1b91b95 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $56.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 08:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.120 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 02:46 AM | 0xcdc9fdf7 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $50.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 11:07 PM | 0xcdc9fdf7 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $11.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
13 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcdc9fdf7 | — | 2 | $62.2K | +$62.2K |
| 0xa1b91b95 | — | 1 | $56.2K | +$56.2K |
| 0xaa145cf5 | — | 2 | $52.2K | $-52,171 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Other | 1 | $22.0K | +$22.0K |
| 0x7f4378c2 | — | 1 | $21.9K | $-21,912 |
| 0x5341e90b | — | 2 | $17.6K | $-14,621 |
| 0xcddc048c | — | 1 | $8,125 | $-8,125 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Other | 1 | $6,445 | $-6,445 |
| 0xfb3249f5 | — | 1 | $2,374 | +$2,374 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Finance | 1 | $1,634 | $-1,634 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Other | 1 | $1,493 | $-1,493 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | Finance | 1 | $1,376 | $-1,376 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Other | 1 | $1,200 | $-1,200 |