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Parz1vaI

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xb100…6461 with our methodology badges per row.

0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
291
lifetime
PnL per $
+5%
historical realized
Win rate
70.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.50M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 291 resolved trades · 5% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
200
capped at 200
Distinct markets
91
Volume (90d)
$1.12M
avg $5,585 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$937.7K / $179.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 06:05 PMWill GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?BUY NO0.985$1,013Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 06:01 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?BUY NO0.990$1,041Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:58 PMWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.661$1,640Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:43 PMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY YES0.992$5,973Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:43 PMIran full airspace closure by July 24?BUY NO0.890$1,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 04:08 PMWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.917$9,332Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:53 PMWill Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY YES0.150$3,081Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 01:46 PMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY YES0.445$1,672
Jul 20, 01:16 PMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY NO0.630$5,751Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 01:06 PMIran full airspace closure by July 31?SELL NO0.770$6,281— (SELL)
Jul 20, 01:14 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.984$4,945Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 01:13 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?BUY NO0.870$8,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 01:12 AMIran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY NO0.640$1,932Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 01:09 AMIran full airspace closure by July 21?BUY NO0.937$6,122Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:32 AMIran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY NO0.630$4,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:28 PMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY YES0.966$3,869Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:18 PMIran leadership change by December 31?SELL NO0.740$1,388— (SELL)
Jul 19, 11:08 PMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY YES0.920$4,244Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:08 PMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY YES0.910$1,001Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:40 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.997$4,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:24 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.994$2,187Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:22 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.994$5,002Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:21 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.990$1,125Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:21 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.990$2,185Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:58 PMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.996$9,960Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:31 PMWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?BUY NO0.999$3,968Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:57 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.930$24.5K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 03:12 PMWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?BUY NO0.998$5,842Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:46 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.919$3,237— (SELL)
Jul 19, 06:51 AMIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?BUY YES0.379$1,738Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 01:53 AMWill a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.920$1,032Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:35 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.950$43.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:58 AMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.994$3,286Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:19 PMMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 17, 2026?BUY NO0.996$21.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:11 PMOver $70M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY NO0.994$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:46 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.396$1,201— (SELL)
Jul 16, 10:38 PMMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$1,159Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:31 PMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?BUY NO0.982$3,102Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:31 PMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?BUY NO0.979$4,310Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:19 PMWill Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.997$1,097Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:57 PMWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?BUY NO0.995$1,249Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:27 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.910$1,151Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:12 PMNew "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? BUY NO0.996$1,217Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:11 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.299$1,767Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 09:05 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.300$2,343Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 09:04 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.300$1,995Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 09:02 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.300$1,962Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:49 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.419$1,912
Jul 15, 08:32 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.638$2,453— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:43 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.470$2,326
Jul 15, 07:37 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.469$40.4K
Jul 15, 04:14 PMIran leadership change by July 31?BUY NO0.962$7,345Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 11:52 AMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?BUY NO0.635$1,240Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:17 PMWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?BUY NO0.582$2,242
Jul 14, 11:17 PMWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?BUY NO0.905$1,588Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:44 PMOver $30M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY NO0.281$1,833Cheap band — no rep
Jul 14, 10:41 PMIran leadership change by December 31?BUY NO0.780$4,847Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:42 PMOver $45M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY NO0.850$4,223Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:39 PMOver $80M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY NO0.964$1,154Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:09 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.290$1,582Cheap band — no rep
Jul 14, 07:21 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.560$23.7K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 05:07 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.810$12.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:50 PMOver $20M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY YES0.993$1,219Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:24 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.840$1,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:25 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.691$2,545— (SELL)
Jul 13, 01:23 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.669$13.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:57 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY NO0.390$3,419Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 13, 09:26 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.820$1,454Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 09:26 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?BUY NO0.982$1,170Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:14 AMWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?BUY NO0.915$1,771Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:39 PMIran full airspace closure by July 15?BUY NO0.914$1,097Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:33 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.838$5,275Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 05:36 PMWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.834$1,257Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:56 AMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?SELL NO0.564$1,194— (SELL)
Jul 12, 11:06 AMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.353$3,615Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 10:55 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.560$1,500
Jul 12, 10:30 AMWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY NO0.630$2,819Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:30 AMWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.920$1,849Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 09:22 AMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.610$1,174Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 09:22 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?SELL YES0.480$1,262— (SELL)
Jul 12, 04:05 AMIran full airspace closure by July 15?BUY NO0.918$1,358Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:30 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.839$44.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:07 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.822$18.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:30 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.985$12.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:28 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.992$17.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 02:25 PMUS strike on Cuba by December 31?BUY NO0.690$5,635Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:58 AMWill another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?BUY NO0.981$1,611Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:29 AMWill a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?BUY NO0.640$2,426Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:48 AMIran full airspace closure by July 15?BUY NO0.919$3,703Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:47 AMWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.841$1,168Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:42 AMIran full airspace closure by July 15?BUY NO0.914$6,093Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:36 AMWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.910$10.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 11:53 PMWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?BUY NO0.993$3,872Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 10:05 PMOver $20M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY NO0.250$1,266Cheap band — no rep
Jul 10, 07:32 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.991$3,648Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:47 PMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.930$2,090Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:59 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?BUY NO0.963$8,672Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:13 AMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 17?BUY YES0.985$23.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:13 AMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 17?BUY YES0.981$2,156Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:12 AMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY YES0.887$1,417Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 11:23 PMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 10?BUY NO0.219$1,538Cheap band — no rep
Jul 8, 10:27 PMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 8?SELL NO0.471$2,198— (SELL)
Jul 8, 10:22 PMIran leadership change by July 31?BUY NO0.963$4,813Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:38 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?BUY YES0.589$4,312
Jul 8, 08:43 PMIran leadership change by July 31?BUY NO0.955$1,841Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:15 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?BUY NO0.979$1,348Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 07:56 PMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY NO0.638$2,219Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:51 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?BUY NO0.890$6,039Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:27 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY YES0.999$59.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:34 PMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.982$1,227Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:31 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.146$1,054Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 05:30 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.891$2,592Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:30 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.845$1,419Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:22 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.560$3,471
Jul 7, 04:17 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.466$4,711
Jul 7, 01:07 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.670$2,977Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:53 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.640$5,865Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:49 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.630$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:34 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.720$2,463Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:33 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL NO0.653$3,628— (SELL)
Jul 6, 04:46 PMWorld Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?BUY NO0.927$2,515Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:36 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL YES0.690$1,597— (SELL)
Jul 6, 11:22 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?SELL NO0.763$1,994— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:13 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY YES0.670$1,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:48 AMWorld Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?BUY YES0.945$4,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:24 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?BUY NO0.907$1,477Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:09 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.138$6,087Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 5, 02:54 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?BUY NO0.997$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 02:44 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY NO0.770$15.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:06 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.640$1,560— (SELL)
Jul 4, 10:31 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.670$1,335Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:30 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.537$2,191
Jul 4, 10:19 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.487$12.7K— (SELL)
Jul 4, 09:36 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.365$1,423— (SELL)
Jul 4, 05:29 PMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.985$5,872Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 05:20 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY YES0.690$1,211Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:55 PMOver $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY NO0.979$3,211Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:43 PMOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY YES0.995$1,955Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:29 PMOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY YES0.958$1,102Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:29 PMOver $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY NO0.900$3,813Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:15 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY YES0.690$1,121Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:09 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.730$1,391Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:09 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.719$4,234Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:09 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.819$7,472Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 01:18 AMOver $90M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY NO0.984$1,319Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:44 AMArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?BUY NO0.998$1,446Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:40 AMArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?BUY NO0.925$8,580Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:40 AMArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?BUY NO0.925$20.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:28 AMWill Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?BUY NO0.800$6,157Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:18 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.500$14.8K
Jul 3, 11:53 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.124$14.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 01:39 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.542$1,482— (SELL)
Jul 3, 09:10 AMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?BUY NO0.950$4,195Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 01:45 AMOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY YES0.917$2,239Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:19 AMWill Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.994$1,509Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:14 AMWorld Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?BUY NO0.970$1,259Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:13 AMWorld Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?BUY NO0.957$2,239Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:10 AMWill Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.995$4,229Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:05 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?BUY NO0.810$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 07:14 AMWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.770$1,692Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:47 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.649$2,044— (SELL)
Jul 2, 12:43 AMOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?BUY YES0.936$5,536Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:03 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.651$24.7K— (SELL)
Jul 1, 05:41 PMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.031$1,993— (SELL)
Jul 1, 05:41 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.077$5,129Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 05:38 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.073$2,359Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 05:37 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.071$1,055Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 05:37 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.068$1,573Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 05:36 PMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.036$2,314
Jul 1, 04:42 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.699$1,242Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:48 PMWill Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?BUY NO0.923$1,604Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:48 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.830$1,178Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:31 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?BUY NO0.818$3,714Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 11:15 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY NO0.832$5,437Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:36 PMWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.853$3,849Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 06:42 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?BUY YES0.620$3,180Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:11 PMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?BUY NO0.978$1,933Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:24 PMWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?BUY NO0.837$1,142Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:23 AMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY NO0.820$6,198Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:50 AMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$4,777Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:50 AMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?BUY NO0.920$7,390Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:47 AMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY NO0.800$7,805Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:45 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?BUY NO0.800$1,124Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:08 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.994$6,626Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:16 PMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?SELL NO0.998$21.6K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 11:07 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.233$1,114Cheap band — no rep
Jun 29, 11:06 PMNetanyahu out by June 30?SELL NO0.998$5,916— (SELL)
Jun 29, 10:49 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.999$1,036Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:37 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?SELL NO0.999$26.9K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 03:00 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?SELL NO0.651$1,973— (SELL)
Jun 29, 01:44 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY NO0.250$1,285Cheap band — no rep
Jun 29, 11:48 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY NO0.750$1,873Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 11:13 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?BUY YES0.270$3,673Cheap band — no rep
Jun 27, 07:46 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.178$2,516Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 02:14 AMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY NO0.600$2,095
Jun 26, 07:38 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.197$7,029Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 08:10 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.954$2,309Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 01:53 AMAlien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?BUY NO0.999$40.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:24 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.621$6,570Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:04 PMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?BUY NO0.710$5,214Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

91 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other11$134.5K+$12.9K
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other21$91.5K+$71.6K
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Other10$81.9K+$71.5K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$66.2K+$66.2K
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Other1$40.0K+$40.0K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other5$36.3K$-19,994
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Other3$30.6K+$30.6K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Other1$26.9K$-26,865
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?Other2$25.5K+$25.5K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Other8$24.2K+$20.2K
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Other1$21.6K$-21,577
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 17, 2026?Tech1$21.1K+$21.1K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Other3$18.5K+$18.5K
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$18.2K+$18.2K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Other5$16.9K+$16.9K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other5$16.2K+$16.2K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Other3$16.1K+$16.1K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Other2$15.7K+$10.6K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Other1$15.4K+$15.4K
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Politics4$15.1K+$15.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Tech1$15.0K+$15.0K
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?Other4$14.9K+$14.9K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech1$14.3K+$14.3K
Iran leadership change by July 31?Other3$14.0K+$14.0K
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Other2$13.2K+$13.2K
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Tech3$12.8K+$251
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Other2$12.5K+$12.5K
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$12.3K+$12.3K
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Tech4$12.3K+$12.3K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other1$12.0K+$12.0K

Showing top 30 by volume.