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End123

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8df7…36c4 with our methodology badges per row.

0x8df73e2962d0184ea1f71621784d46ca6b5936c4·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
7
lifetime
PnL per $
-2%
historical realized
Win rate
91.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$16.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 7 resolved trades · -2% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
28
Distinct markets
22
Volume (90d)
$207.1K
avg $7,395 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$90.9K / $116.2K
net direction

Recent trades

last 28 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 15, 01:40 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.810$97.2K— (SELL)
Jul 11, 05:11 PMWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?BUY NO0.890$1,701Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:25 AMWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY NO0.960$12.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 05:00 PMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?SELL YES0.940$1,276— (SELL)
Jun 30, 05:02 PMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?BUY NO0.997$3,101Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:01 PMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?BUY NO0.990$1,473Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 05:17 PMWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?BUY NO0.998$1,397Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:04 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?SELL YES0.880$6,667— (SELL)
May 27, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?BUY YES0.900$1,149Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?BUY YES0.949$6,927Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?BUY YES0.930$5,217Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:29 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.981$1,264Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:28 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?BUY YES0.930$3,455Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:48 PM0x1eeb9106BUY YES0.987$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:47 PM0x1eeb9106BUY YES0.986$18.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:08 PM0xa743ce4aBUY YES0.930$3,162Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:36 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?SELL NO0.557$2,334— (SELL)
May 23, 08:33 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.820$1,787Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:00 PMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?BUY YES0.890$1,547Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?BUY YES0.930$1,180Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?BUY YES0.969$7,087Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:02 PMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?BUY YES0.856$2,458Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:00 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?BUY YES0.931$2,572Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:51 AMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?SELL NO0.880$1,415— (SELL)
May 20, 09:13 AMUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.860$2,614— (SELL)
May 20, 08:16 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?SELL YES0.870$4,698— (SELL)
May 16, 10:58 PM0x00893c3aBUY NO0.979$2,771Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:52 PM0xacb47d71BUY NO0.999$1,309Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

22 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$98.9K$-95,371
0x1eeb9106—2$28.4K+$28.4K
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics1$12.9K+$12.9K
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?Other2$9,499+$9,499
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Other2$7,815$-5,518
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Other1$7,087+$7,087
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?Other1$5,217+$5,217
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Other1$4,698$-4,698
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?Tech2$4,574+$4,574
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Other1$3,455+$3,455
0xa743ce4a—1$3,162+$3,162
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Tech2$2,823+$271
0x00893c3a—1$2,771+$2,771
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics1$2,614$-2,614
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?Tech1$2,458+$2,458
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Other1$2,334$-2,334
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?Other1$1,701+$1,701
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Tech1$1,415$-1,415
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?Other1$1,397+$1,397
0xacb47d71—1$1,309+$1,309
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$1,264+$1,264
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?Other1$1,180+$1,180