| Jul 20, 01:00 PM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.305 | $2,414 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 11:33 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.298 | $2,139 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 20, 10:54 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $2,370 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 09:12 AM | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $7,597 | —— |
| Jul 11, 02:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 06:02 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $9,802 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 02:38 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:11 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $21.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 5, 02:24 PM | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $5,706 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 02:29 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $10.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 03:46 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 2, 03:00 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.816 | $12.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 2, 01:15 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $8,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 12:51 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $12.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 12:26 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 07:46 AM | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $7,706 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:43 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $6,993 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:41 AM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $6,223 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 03:19 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 03:14 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 02:01 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.713 | $1,348 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 11:01 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $3,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 03:34 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 11:45 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:45 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 11:33 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.638 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:23 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,698 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:20 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 11:06 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $20.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 10:48 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $1,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 12:11 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,828 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 03:40 AM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.851 | $3,004 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 08:42 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $4,436 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 23, 12:15 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $13.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 05:00 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 03:30 AM | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,624 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:53 AM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $9,630 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:28 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,411 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 07:26 AM | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,073 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 08:47 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $9,950 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:14 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.800 | $4,020 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 03:43 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.329 | $3,087 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 03:42 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.763 | $5,531 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 03:40 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.232 | $3,461 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 13, 03:14 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $9,045 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:32 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.578 | $7,441 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $2,383 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 12:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.154 | $2,346 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:29 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.337 | $2,698 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:12 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $4,298 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.156 | $7,961 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:48 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.112 | $1,859 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:17 PM | 0x876047c0 | SELL YES | 0.071 | $1,095 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 05:11 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.103 | $1,805 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:16 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,845 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.151 | $1,737 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:34 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.711 | $1,056 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:29 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.391 | $12.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:28 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.136 | $1,907 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 08:14 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.400 | $3,177 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,715 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,473 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 07:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.148 | $7,225 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:37 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,845 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:05 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,097 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 12:41 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.160 | $4,180 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:39 AM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.059 | $1,835 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 11:38 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.205 | $1,098 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 11:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $1,388 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 11:25 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.644 | $3,570 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:25 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,958 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 10:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.021 | $1,206 | —— |
| Jun 10, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.030 | $2,847 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.041 | $2,979 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 12:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.049 | $9,118 | —— |
| Jun 10, 12:18 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.170 | $18.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 06:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $4,802 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,441 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $2,971 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:41 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.433 | $4,403 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:40 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $4,246 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:39 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.233 | $2,916 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 03:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.220 | $1,051 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 03:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $2,540 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 01:49 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $1,275 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 9, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $2,382 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 01:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $4,135 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 9, 01:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $4,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:05 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,484 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 8, 11:12 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.098 | $1,182 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 10:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $2,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 10:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $2,524 | —— |
| Jun 8, 10:38 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.198 | $2,541 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 11:17 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $14.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 11:15 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $7,063 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $6,063 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 10:13 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,616 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 7, 08:18 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,400 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 6, 10:56 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,615 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 6, 09:33 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.014 | $1,292 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 06:05 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $3,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 09:30 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | SELL YES | 0.620 | $7,264 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 08:52 AM | 0x35c73eb4 | SELL NO | 0.880 | $13.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 08:58 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL YES | 0.036 | $2,896 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 09:35 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,105 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:26 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.098 | $1,627 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:53 PM | 0x1b1a75d6 | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,529 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $5,449 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 08:43 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,401 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:51 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $2,677 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,560 | —— |
| Jun 1, 05:32 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,399 | —— |
| Jun 1, 05:10 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $40.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $2,053 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:03 PM | 0xf526b2fb | SELL NO | 0.940 | $3,900 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:54 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $30.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:43 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL YES | 0.480 | $2,832 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $4,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $3,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:28 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL NO | 0.996 | $12.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 01:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $4,477 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:35 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL YES | 0.582 | $4,064 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 11:53 AM | 0x366f8964 | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 10:41 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $5,201 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 12:09 AM | 0xb03509e2 | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,828 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 12:04 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL YES | 0.531 | $4,976 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 12:02 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $3,956 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $2,060 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,671 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:53 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.086 | $1,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,463 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 11:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $1,800 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:38 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.400 | $5,098 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:42 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.430 | $2,539 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:53 PM | 0x1b1a75d6 | BUY YES | 0.780 | $1,302 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $3,617 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 09:17 PM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,530 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,231 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 05:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $2,311 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:16 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $3,176 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 27, 02:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.830 | $3,313 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 12:46 PM | 0xbfca16aa | SELL NO | 0.910 | $6,731 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 11:04 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $18.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:19 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.370 | $2,343 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 11:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.662 | $2,012 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:06 PM | 0xa1d97efb | SELL NO | 0.984 | $9,840 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $5,684 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 09:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.025 | $1,436 | —— |
| May 26, 09:22 PM | 0x4ba34832 | SELL NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 08:51 AM | 0x35c73eb4 | SELL YES | 0.574 | $5,939 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.800 | $3,199 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:29 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.984 | $7,791 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $3,239 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.098 | $11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:02 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,410 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:06 PM | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL YES | 0.700 | $6,966 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 02:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.387 | $3,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 01:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $4,068 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 01:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $5,923 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,560 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:44 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $9,898 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $8,987 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 09:11 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $22.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:27 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,797 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 08:14 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL YES | 0.340 | $1,732 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $71.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $6,283 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $4,099 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,388 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $5,367 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $4,810 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:26 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $6,793 | —— |
| May 24, 03:17 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.923 | $15.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $11.4K | —— |
| May 24, 10:01 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $18.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:35 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $5,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:57 AM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.321 | $2,631 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:08 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.647 | $1,436 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $2,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY YES | 0.739 | $2,893 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | SELL YES | 0.261 | $2,595 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:57 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $7,035 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:37 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.131 | $1,426 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:34 PM | 0x8374c773 | SELL YES | 0.644 | $1,456 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:33 PM | 0x3f0743b8 | SELL YES | 0.114 | $1,584 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:32 PM | 0xa37173a8 | BUY NO | 0.540 | $3,146 | —— |
| May 23, 09:02 PM | 0x2f6a5475 | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,393 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $4,179 | —— |
| May 23, 08:21 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.970 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 07:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,618 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 10:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.480 | $6,537 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $6,969 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 09:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.490 | $4,392 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:34 AM | 0x4ba34832 | SELL YES | 0.955 | $9,550 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 12:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $6,484 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |