aenews2

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x44c1…ebc1 with our methodology badges per row.

0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

185

lifetime

PnL per $

-5%

historical realized

Win rate

75.6%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.73M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 185 resolved trades · -5% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.79M

avg $8,961 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.70M / $91.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 07:24 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.964	$3,460	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 10:38 PM	Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	BUY YES	0.843	$4,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:36 PM	Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:22 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.820	$6,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:14 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	BUY NO	0.380	$1,027	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 08:14 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	BUY NO	0.620	$1,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 10:37 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.142	$14.9K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 10:20 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	BUY NO	0.905	$2,169	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:10 PM	Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Intelligence?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:01 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.038	$2,568	—
Jun 11, 03:34 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.953	$6,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:34 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.957	$2,523	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:09 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,656	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:24 PM	Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	BUY NO	0.935	$1,242	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:15 PM	Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	BUY NO	0.990	$7,898	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:15 PM	Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$3,695	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:08 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.950	$42.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:10 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.949	$7,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:24 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.986	$4,634	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:45 AM	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.949	$30.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:39 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.870	$21.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:58 AM	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.960	$1,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:25 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.865	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:43 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.879	$1,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:58 AM	Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros?	BUY YES	0.940	$8,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:48 AM	Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.850	$2,898	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:46 AM	Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.860	$5,915	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:16 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY YES	0.385	$2,358	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 8, 03:22 AM	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.546	$2,777	—
Jun 8, 03:19 AM	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.540	$9,312	—
Jun 7, 09:07 PM	Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY YES	0.960	$1,547	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:06 PM	Iran closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:49 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY NO	0.141	$1,062	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 10:34 AM	Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.990	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:04 AM	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.989	$5,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:04 AM	Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,345	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:51 PM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.968	$23.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:51 PM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.964	$20.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:51 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.971	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:51 PM	Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.978	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:51 PM	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.972	$7,194	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:17 PM	Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	BUY YES	0.980	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:38 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.610	$7,746	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:41 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.959	$2,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:40 PM	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.894	$1,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:39 PM	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.844	$1,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:39 PM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.834	$4,492	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:39 PM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.826	$1,638	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:39 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.958	$3,301	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:06 PM	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.385	$1,685	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 5, 01:57 AM	Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?	BUY YES	0.450	$2,717	—
Jun 5, 01:57 AM	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.450	$2,700	—
Jun 5, 01:57 AM	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	BUY NO	0.449	$3,210	—
Jun 4, 11:13 PM	Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.676	$1,347	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:13 PM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.672	$4,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:13 PM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.674	$7,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:55 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.700	$7,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:55 AM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.698	$1,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:05 AM	Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	BUY NO	0.893	$1,443	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:25 PM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.590	$2,294	—
Jun 3, 11:17 PM	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.220	$2,039	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 3, 11:14 PM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.594	$4,981	—
Jun 3, 10:14 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.250	$1,466	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 3, 10:11 PM	Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	BUY YES	0.947	$2,268	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:07 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$99.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:07 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$99.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:06 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$99.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:05 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$99.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:28 AM	Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.950	$2,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:28 AM	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.946	$28.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:24 AM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.261	$1,535	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 3, 03:20 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.865	$1,875	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 08:14 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,515	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:31 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.360	$7,496	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 01:50 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.313	$2,516	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 01:16 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.314	$5,001	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 12:52 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.222	$1,608	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 12:47 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.198	$16.2K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 12:44 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.212	$5,104	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 06:59 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.927	$3,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:54 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.897	$18.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:54 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.914	$8,590	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:18 AM	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	SELL NO	0.941	$1,163	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 06:17 AM	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	SELL NO	0.947	$1,958	— (SELL)
May 31, 10:26 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$9,703	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:26 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.739	$2,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:20 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.897	$5,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:45 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.994	$97.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:26 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.993	$71.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:10 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.971	$4,823	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:10 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	BUY YES	0.985	$2,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:56 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.947	$2,606	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:38 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.929	$2,165	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:29 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.927	$1,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:04 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.907	$18.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:02 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.879	$1,543	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:57 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.872	$1,487	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:56 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.851	$1,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:09 AM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	BUY NO	0.230	$1,320	Cheap band — no rep
May 30, 11:42 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	BUY YES	0.975	$1,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:52 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$8,086	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:22 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.930	$9,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:46 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.942	$21.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:42 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.847	$2,055	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:20 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.802	$2,399	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:16 PM	Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	BUY YES	0.868	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:35 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.030	$2,195	— (SELL)
May 30, 03:43 AM	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,694	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:53 PM	Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	BUY YES	0.929	$2,630	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 01:35 PM	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	BUY YES	0.929	$1,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:13 AM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	BUY YES	0.633	$1,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:41 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.740	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:55 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.400	$2,024	— (SELL)
May 29, 08:53 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.746	$31.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:56 AM	Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,487	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:52 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.751	$1,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:51 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.888	$3,564	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:51 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.870	$4,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:38 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:37 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.796	$50.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:45 AM	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:40 AM	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	BUY YES	0.993	$1,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 01:45 AM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?	BUY NO	0.891	$1,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:24 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY YES	0.220	$2,276	Cheap band — no rep
May 28, 02:24 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.320	$2,724	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 27, 10:34 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.510	$1,136	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:11 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.254	$7,471	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:56 AM	Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	BUY YES	0.742	$1,578	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:47 PM	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	BUY NO	0.910	$6,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:47 PM	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	BUY YES	0.910	$2,283	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 10:31 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	SELL NO	0.940	$14.2K	— (SELL)
May 26, 05:28 AM	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	BUY YES	0.413	$1,641	—
May 26, 12:50 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	BUY NO	0.990	$46.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:50 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,728	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:48 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,541	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:47 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,249	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:47 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY NO	0.990	$7,357	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY NO	0.980	$3,077	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$5,365	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY NO	0.990	$5,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,771	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,587	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	BUY NO	0.978	$4,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:21 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY NO	0.979	$7,384	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:21 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY NO	0.979	$7,794	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:44 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	SELL YES	0.110	$1,627	— (SELL)
May 25, 07:02 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY YES	0.100	$2,817	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 25, 01:15 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	SELL NO	0.987	$19.7K	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:43 PM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	BUY YES	0.997	$3,683	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:24 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.537	$1,791	—
May 25, 11:24 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.460	$1,107	—
May 25, 08:31 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.260	$2,712	Cheap band — no rep
May 25, 06:53 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	SELL NO	0.981	$28.6K	— (SELL)
May 24, 11:46 PM	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	BUY NO	0.526	$1,868	—
May 24, 02:10 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.620	$1,567	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:30 AM	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	BUY YES	0.283	$3,160	Cheap band — no rep
May 24, 01:04 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.692	$5,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:54 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.610	$26.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:51 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.670	$3,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY YES	0.180	$1,275	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 09:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY YES	0.186	$2,744	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 08:53 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY YES	0.588	$9,612	—
May 23, 07:17 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY YES	0.991	$2,479	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 05:09 AM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,594	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:46 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.859	$9,065	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:45 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.849	$7,792	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:03 PM	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	BUY NO	0.233	$4,955	Cheap band — no rep
May 22, 08:59 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.750	$7,106	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:26 PM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	BUY YES	0.048	$3,040	—
May 22, 12:23 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.980	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:43 AM	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	BUY NO	0.726	$8,843	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 09:16 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.760	$28.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:08 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.130	$7,524	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 05:37 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.348	$10.3K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 07:42 AM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY YES	0.290	$1,740	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 11:47 PM	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	BUY NO	0.240	$1,203	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 11:47 PM	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	SELL YES	0.760	$1,772	— (SELL)
May 19, 09:45 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.230	$6,925	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 09:45 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.034	$1,672	—
May 19, 06:56 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.130	$3,665	— (SELL)
May 18, 10:42 PM	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.630	$2,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:01 PM	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	BUY YES	0.367	$1,259	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 11:50 PM	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.571	$1,468	—
May 17, 11:50 PM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY NO	0.559	$8,708	—
May 17, 11:50 PM	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.553	$5,292	—
May 17, 01:35 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.260	$1,082	Cheap band — no rep
May 17, 03:41 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY YES	0.360	$3,473	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 02:09 AM	Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	BUY YES	0.920	$3,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:14 PM	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	BUY NO	0.320	$1,522	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 16, 11:03 AM	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	BUY YES	0.995	$48.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 09:43 PM	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.485	$5,716	—
May 15, 08:48 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.270	$10.8K	Cheap band — no rep
May 15, 02:20 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY YES	0.372	$2,029	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 15, 01:27 PM	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?	BUY NO	0.931	$3,067	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 12:13 PM	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.206	$1,123	Cheap band — no rep
May 15, 05:19 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY YES	0.985	$2,889	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:12 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY YES	0.984	$1,507	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:06 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY YES	0.971	$8,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:06 AM	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY YES	0.970	$3,527	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

90 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	13	$466.8K	+$466.8K
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Other	14	$238.0K	+$238.0K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	7	$103.2K	+$103.2K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	4	$78.1K	+$78.1K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	3	$58.0K	$-38,739
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	8	$52.8K	+$41.1K
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Politics	1	$48.5K	+$48.5K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Other	1	$46.6K	+$46.6K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Other	2	$45.8K	+$45.8K
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	5	$42.2K	+$42.2K
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	6	$37.8K	+$37.8K
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Other	1	$30.0K	+$30.0K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	5	$28.3K	+$28.3K
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Politics	1	$28.2K	+$28.2K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	3	$27.1K	+$27.1K
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	3	$26.7K	+$26.7K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	4	$25.9K	+$25.9K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	3	$24.3K	+$24.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	4	$21.3K	+$21.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	3	$18.6K	$-12,971
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	5	$16.8K	+$16.8K
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Other	2	$14.4K	$-546
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Other	3	$14.0K	+$14.0K
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Politics	3	$12.9K	+$12.9K
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	Politics	3	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Other	2	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	2	$12.1K	+$12.1K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Other	3	$12.1K	+$12.1K
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Other	2	$10.4K	+$10.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	1	$10.3K	+$10.3K

Showing top 30 by volume.