| Jul 20, 05:21 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.072 | $1,729 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 20, 01:13 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $7,278 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 20, 12:53 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.065 | $1,115 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 09:51 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,738 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:50 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $7,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:29 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $3,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 08:35 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,004 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:35 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:21 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $9,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:18 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $40.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:17 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:16 PM | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $2,971 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:31 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,737 | —— |
| Jul 19, 07:27 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.925 | $18.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:25 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $21.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 06:48 PM | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.650 | $8,137 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 02:43 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $17.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 07:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.032 | $2,412 | —— |
| Jul 15, 07:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.073 | $6,334 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 03:31 PM | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.855 | $1,378 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 03:51 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $1,474 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 14, 03:51 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.080 | $1,295 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 04:29 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,956 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 13, 02:44 PM | Will Russell Fry replace Graham as South Carolina Senator? | BUY NO | 0.928 | $1,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:37 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.235 | $2,541 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 11, 09:40 PM | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $3,105 | —— |
| Jul 6, 07:47 PM | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $3,782 | —— |
| Jul 5, 05:25 PM | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY NO | 0.140 | $2,060 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 10:18 PM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.031 | $4,502 | —— |
| Jul 1, 10:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $3,341 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 29, 05:31 PM | Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $1,094 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 29, 02:36 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.293 | $4,562 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 29, 02:01 PM | SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? | BUY NO | 0.683 | $2,392 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 02:01 PM | SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,758 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 02:01 PM | SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? | BUY NO | 0.806 | $5,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 01:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $4,172 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 02:04 PM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.025 | $1,111 | —— |
| Jun 26, 09:44 PM | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY YES | 0.316 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 06:56 PM | Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? | BUY YES | 0.795 | $1,362 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 12:28 AM | Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? | BUY YES | 0.871 | $1,510 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 11:52 PM | 0xc781e58a | BUY NO | 0.717 | $2,697 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 11:35 PM | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL NO | 0.782 | $12.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 06:03 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $8,941 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 24, 05:42 PM | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $4,809 | —— |
| Jun 24, 04:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $1,354 | —— |
| Jun 24, 04:12 PM | Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $1,623 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 23, 08:18 PM | Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,929 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 23, 06:11 PM | Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,339 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 03:55 PM | Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? | BUY NO | 0.186 | $2,762 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 22, 02:16 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.188 | $16.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 10:05 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.317 | $8,632 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 10:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.108 | $20.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $21.0K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 07:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.504 | $18.5K | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.141 | $6,662 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.185 | $5,379 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.117 | $6,022 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.119 | $1,609 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,853 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $5,260 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.270 | $6,047 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.078 | $3,623 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.067 | $4,528 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $3,349 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $6,046 | —— |
| Jun 3, 10:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $9,672 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 10:56 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,133 | —— |
| Jun 3, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $12.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 08:14 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.050 | $5,619 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $3,772 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 01:43 PM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.111 | $1,384 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 10:53 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $98.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:34 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $101.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:09 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $11.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:44 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.090 | $4,167 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,283 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $11.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:43 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.080 | $2,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.365 | $8,863 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:31 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.257 | $3,869 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 05:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.135 | $3,821 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:31 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $6,789 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:30 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.124 | $1,630 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:21 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $79.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 04:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $4,318 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:35 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.460 | $2,850 | —— |
| Jun 1, 02:34 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.370 | $3,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:14 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.360 | $1,039 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:14 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.395 | $14.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:08 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.250 | $1,643 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 30, 09:41 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.149 | $3,408 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 02:52 PM | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.390 | $1,220 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 10:07 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.718 | $6,218 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:06 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.203 | $3,348 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 29, 10:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,735 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 10:05 PM | 0xb03509e2 | BUY YES | 0.151 | $1,239 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 10:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $11.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 05:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $6,577 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $4,321 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 04:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,224 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:54 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.218 | $3,828 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 29, 02:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.389 | $5,644 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:52 PM | 0x71c49500 | BUY YES | 0.082 | $1,547 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.274 | $15.2K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 29, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $13.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 06:57 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.230 | $7,584 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 28, 04:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $2,196 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,801 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,220 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | BUY YES | 0.104 | $3,887 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.242 | $2,640 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,488 | —— |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.525 | $1,717 | —— |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.197 | $6,958 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $3,071 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.154 | $3,890 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.139 | $3,742 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $4,968 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.440 | $4,493 | —— |
| May 27, 04:23 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY YES | 0.104 | $1,083 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:22 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | BUY YES | 0.159 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.214 | $5,092 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 27, 04:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.175 | $26.5K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 03:34 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,686 | —— |
| May 27, 03:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.445 | $2,932 | —— |
| May 27, 03:31 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | BUY YES | 0.149 | $2,546 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 03:31 PM | 0xbfca16aa | BUY YES | 0.061 | $1,268 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:21 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:21 PM | 0xbfca16aa | BUY YES | 0.109 | $1,188 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 03:34 PM | 0x9a87a001 | BUY NO | 0.697 | $3,392 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $5,086 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 10:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.295 | $6,910 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 10:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $4,971 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 10:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.064 | $6,339 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:28 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.969 | $8,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:28 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.966 | $1,172 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? | BUY NO | 0.705 | $2,453 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? | BUY NO | 0.801 | $3,635 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | BUY NO | 0.725 | $1,127 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,022 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $8,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | BUY NO | 0.707 | $2,353 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | BUY NO | 0.712 | $1,449 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:56 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.681 | $1,306 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.719 | $1,943 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | BUY NO | 0.737 | $2,394 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | BUY NO | 0.597 | $2,584 | —— |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | BUY NO | 0.693 | $1,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | BUY NO | 0.635 | $1,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xbdf0bbe0 | BUY NO | 0.600 | $4,973 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY NO | 0.626 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.639 | $7,521 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.352 | $5,719 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.444 | $1,621 | —— |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.273 | $2,846 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 25, 10:55 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.377 | $1,030 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:44 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.109 | $1,281 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:24 PM | 0xa743ce4a | BUY NO | 0.149 | $1,307 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 09:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $2,067 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:48 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.029 | $1,358 | —— |
| May 25, 09:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.113 | $3,783 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.331 | $15.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:14 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.557 | $6,549 | —— |
| May 25, 03:13 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.095 | $3,840 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $2,657 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $3,145 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:11 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.275 | $5,546 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 25, 03:11 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY YES | 0.128 | $1,459 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.335 | $4,744 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.147 | $4,150 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 03:20 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY YES | 0.239 | $1,035 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 24, 03:20 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,680 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 24, 11:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.398 | $5,675 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 11:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,064 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 11:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.304 | $3,447 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 01:42 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY YES | 0.178 | $2,480 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 10:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.525 | $6,948 | —— |
| May 23, 09:37 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY YES | 0.729 | $5,627 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.118 | $1,073 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | 0x35c73eb4 | BUY YES | 0.497 | $2,213 | —— |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY YES | 0.328 | $1,839 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,687 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.595 | $1,748 | —— |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.107 | $1,586 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 06:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.384 | $3,190 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 05:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,850 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 05:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.079 | $2,110 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.201 | $2,550 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 23, 03:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,020 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 23, 02:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.074 | $1,070 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:08 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | BUY YES | 0.535 | $9,722 | —— |
| May 23, 02:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.238 | $3,224 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 23, 02:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.069 | $3,303 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:06 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.229 | $1,208 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 23, 02:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $8,698 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 23, 02:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,739 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.152 | $1,889 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 04:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $4,999 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:28 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY YES | 0.038 | $2,151 | —— |
| May 22, 05:01 PM | Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $6,317 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |