| Jun 20, 05:35 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 05:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $1,515 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 07:14 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:57 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | SELL NO | 0.350 | $1,401 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:46 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.730 | $2,190 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:18 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,618 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:16 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.453 | $3,710 | —— |
| Jun 12, 03:51 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY NO | 0.699 | $1,025 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.166 | $1,829 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.084 | $1,252 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:50 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $2,622 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:50 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.805 | $31.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:12 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $3,024 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:29 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY NO | 0.739 | $2,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $2,300 | —— |
| Jun 12, 10:57 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:12 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.501 | $1,439 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL YES | 0.107 | $1,604 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:24 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY YES | 0.141 | $1,828 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $1,370 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 11:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,222 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 11:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $2,128 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:07 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.505 | $3,786 | —— |
| Jun 11, 11:02 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.603 | $2,234 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:56 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.249 | $1,600 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 10:18 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.419 | $1,027 | —— |
| Jun 11, 09:56 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.244 | $1,283 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 06:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,106 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:20 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $1,915 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:58 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $13.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.152 | $3,804 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,531 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.224 | $3,276 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.389 | $1,649 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:24 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.221 | $1,104 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.613 | $4,561 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.042 | $1,039 | —— |
| Jun 11, 08:11 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $4,360 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:57 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,002 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:06 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.941 | $2,123 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:42 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.771 | $2,457 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:40 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.164 | $1,826 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:49 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $7,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:49 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.899 | $2,927 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:30 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,425 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:14 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $2,654 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:33 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.945 | $5,218 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,830 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.609 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.591 | $3,726 | —— |
| Jun 10, 12:00 AM | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL YES | 0.401 | $6,003 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 03:31 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 9, 01:19 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $3,226 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 12:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.217 | $3,753 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 10:36 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | SELL NO | 0.973 | $2,918 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:36 PM | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL YES | 0.424 | $1,035 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:22 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $7,921 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:21 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $1,751 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:13 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,285 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:13 PM | Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL YES | 0.995 | $6,738 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:58 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $2,255 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 07:48 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.665 | $1,715 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:37 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.676 | $3,734 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:18 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $2,287 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:05 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.639 | $1,341 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 06:05 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.660 | $1,789 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:21 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $8,863 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $8,828 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $11.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:40 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.940 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:32 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.954 | $2,862 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 09:50 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.590 | $3,540 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 09:27 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.570 | $1,425 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 09:20 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.580 | $1,122 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.919 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.844 | $14.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:46 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.804 | $1,708 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.782 | $2,633 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:40 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.553 | $1,285 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.545 | $1,524 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:32 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.341 | $1,497 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 05:08 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $6,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 10:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,050 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 07:47 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $4,875 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:46 PM | Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,990 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 07:05 AM | Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.498 | $4,979 | —— |
| Jun 4, 08:23 PM | Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $2,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:42 AM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $4,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:32 AM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.628 | $1,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:06 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $16.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 04:17 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL YES | 0.635 | $1,501 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 03:32 PM | Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $3,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:28 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.640 | $6,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 07:06 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:10 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $1,512 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:09 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $7,324 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:23 PM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.953 | $4,765 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:10 PM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $7,809 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:09 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $8,840 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 04:33 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 04:23 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $3,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 04:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 03:21 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.824 | $3,881 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:57 PM | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,506 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:22 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $24.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:06 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,061 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:34 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:23 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $1,984 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:22 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.915 | $3,462 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:11 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | BUY NO | 0.648 | $3,238 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:01 PM | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $2,025 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:51 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $9,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:45 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $44.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 08:23 PM | 0xa8e8cdf6 | BUY YES | 0.991 | $1,187 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:51 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.439 | $1,196 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:54 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.268 | $3,466 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 12:22 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.184 | $1,836 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 11:38 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $6,639 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:31 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.768 | $2,204 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:22 AM | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $4,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 07:13 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.993 | $14.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 06:15 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,005 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 06:14 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $5,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 06:12 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 05:49 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $8,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $2,825 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:20 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $7,502 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:16 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $2,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 03:15 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $4,482 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 02:59 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 12:44 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $4,498 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:07 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $1,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:53 AM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.915 | $2,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 11:14 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,924 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 10:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:42 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.857 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:17 AM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $5,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:04 AM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $5,351 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.759 | $7,594 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:54 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $1,409 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:49 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.082 | $1,227 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:41 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.490 | $1,933 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:39 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.575 | $11.5K | —— |
| May 29, 06:38 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.177 | $2,068 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:03 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.497 | $7,455 | —— |
| May 29, 03:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.530 | $4,284 | —— |
| May 29, 03:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.519 | $3,914 | —— |
| May 29, 03:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.192 | $2,582 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,273 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:44 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.192 | $6,343 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:43 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.570 | $1,425 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:39 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.234 | $1,558 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,549 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:31 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.267 | $1,616 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:30 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.268 | $4,021 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.358 | $2,595 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:04 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.338 | $2,247 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,650 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $1,474 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.250 | $1,725 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $29.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 02:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.767 | $8,806 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 02:58 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $2,294 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:58 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,147 | —— |
| May 29, 02:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.257 | $1,537 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $4,629 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,902 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:53 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $3,068 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 02:51 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,648 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:14 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $2,926 | —— |
| May 28, 09:43 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $2,765 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.120 | $2,385 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:37 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.543 | $1,526 | —— |
| May 28, 07:35 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $9,447 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $7,315 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:23 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.222 | $1,062 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 07:17 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.754 | $2,515 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 07:13 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.503 | $1,467 | —— |
| May 28, 06:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.235 | $10.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.315 | $8,049 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:44 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.465 | $4,104 | —— |
| May 28, 05:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $3,960 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,801 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,050 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.411 | $1,251 | —— |
| May 28, 02:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.442 | $2,211 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | SELL NO | 0.548 | $2,194 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 08:23 AM | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | SELL NO | 0.808 | $1,204 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 08:43 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $1,898 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 07:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $4,900 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:13 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $29.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 06:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $1,186 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,900 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.190 | $1,827 | — (SELL) |