| Jul 20, 11:34 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.220 | $5,529 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 11:33 AM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,132 | —— |
| Jul 20, 11:32 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $3,949 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 19, 09:25 AM | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:24 AM | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 04:02 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $12.5K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 04:02 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $9,091 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 17, 04:02 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $4,791 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 16, 11:50 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,459 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 16, 11:50 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.277 | $1,387 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 16, 11:48 AM | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.917 | $1,536 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 09:58 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 07:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.063 | $1,217 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 07:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $10.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 15, 07:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.187 | $15.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 06:31 PM | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,002 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 07:44 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL YES | 0.062 | $1,590 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 07:44 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $5,424 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 06:49 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $6,300 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 13, 06:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.031 | $1,391 | —— |
| Jul 13, 06:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,851 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 06:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,708 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 06:46 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,641 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 06:45 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $8,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 13, 02:35 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.310 | $1,806 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 02:21 PM | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.187 | $2,805 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 02:18 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.596 | $2,180 | —— |
| Jul 13, 02:18 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.575 | $2,482 | —— |
| Jul 13, 02:18 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 02:18 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,875 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 02:17 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.814 | $3,715 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:17 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $3,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:17 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.748 | $1,126 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 09:40 AM | Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $1,137 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 06:20 AM | Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $1,529 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 06:19 AM | Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.924 | $2,189 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 04:40 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL NO | 0.430 | $1,283 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 02:35 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,007 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 08:19 AM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,283 | —— |
| Jul 8, 08:17 AM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.219 | $1,586 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 7, 06:10 PM | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,543 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 11:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $2,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 07:29 PM | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.510 | $1,365 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 12:03 AM | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.003 | $1,546 | —— |
| Jul 4, 12:00 AM | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.010 | $2,061 | —— |
| Jul 2, 12:35 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.833 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 12:33 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $7,242 | —— |
| Jul 2, 12:33 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 10:13 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 05:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,245 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 10:10 PM | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,152 | —— |
| Jun 29, 11:32 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.550 | $1,835 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 08:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,423 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 08:21 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,046 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 28, 01:28 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,048 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 27, 11:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $4,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 03:09 PM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | SELL NO | 0.969 | $1,923 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 03:08 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $1,581 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 10:03 AM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,884 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 09:59 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.506 | $10.1K | —— |
| Jun 24, 09:21 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $6,450 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 11:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $4,400 | —— |
| Jun 21, 11:07 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,153 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:56 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $4,179 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.193 | $1,984 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 10:24 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,085 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $3,057 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.139 | $1,047 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $1,172 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.136 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.132 | $1,281 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.129 | $1,933 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.297 | $2,735 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.278 | $6,220 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.318 | $2,884 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,891 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 10, 08:50 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,260 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 05:42 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,784 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 05:40 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,328 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 04:41 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.190 | $2,131 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:39 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY NO | 0.870 | $15.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $8,453 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:03 PM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.622 | $4,506 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $3,022 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 10:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $4,516 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 10:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $10.8K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 06:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,025 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $2,324 | —— |
| May 29, 02:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $2,498 | —— |
| May 29, 08:08 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,836 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 09:27 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.239 | $2,725 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 09:26 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.400 | $13.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 09:41 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.480 | $3,557 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:02 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.464 | $6,561 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:34 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.483 | $4,634 | —— |
| May 27, 05:37 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.220 | $1,567 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $2,275 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 06:52 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,055 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 06:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,883 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 01:59 PM | 0x35c73eb4 | SELL YES | 0.550 | $4,104 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $5,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $4,795 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $2,564 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:55 AM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL YES | 0.130 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $3,111 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:45 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL YES | 0.164 | $1,026 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $3,779 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,122 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $5,657 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $3,868 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $3,340 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY YES | 0.143 | $4,190 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:12 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.573 | $8,111 | —— |
| May 25, 03:12 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $7,733 | —— |
| May 25, 12:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.124 | $10.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.103 | $8,509 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.362 | $14.6K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 12:23 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY YES | 0.149 | $1,147 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:46 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $2,626 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 09:49 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,271 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 07:53 PM | 0xd3026827 | BUY YES | 0.080 | $4,026 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $2,360 | —— |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:54 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $2,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:54 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $9,624 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.637 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.554 | $3,134 | —— |
| May 24, 03:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.373 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:22 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.641 | $3,047 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.437 | $16.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:33 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,148 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,734 | —— |
| May 24, 01:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.538 | $1,271 | —— |
| May 24, 01:00 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.583 | $1,295 | —— |
| May 24, 01:00 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.315 | $2,701 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:59 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.656 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:59 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY YES | 0.185 | $2,155 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:58 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.273 | $6,259 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 12:58 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.198 | $1,502 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $4,367 | —— |
| May 24, 12:25 AM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $4,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $4,208 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.588 | $16.5K | —— |
| May 23, 10:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | SELL YES | 0.224 | $1,739 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | SELL YES | 0.542 | $3,450 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.568 | $3,969 | —— |
| May 23, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.608 | $2,078 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.697 | $2,292 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,460 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY YES | 0.175 | $3,759 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY YES | 0.649 | $1,325 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY YES | 0.605 | $1,791 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,776 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 08:11 PM | 0x35c73eb4 | BUY YES | 0.547 | $1,674 | —— |
| May 23, 08:09 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $1,912 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:08 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,400 | —— |
| May 23, 08:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.446 | $2,747 | —— |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,481 | —— |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.335 | $3,126 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 04:24 PM | 0x8374c773 | BUY YES | 0.313 | $1,004 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 04:22 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY YES | 0.468 | $1,036 | —— |
| May 23, 03:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,411 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 10:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.616 | $2,836 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.643 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:03 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,501 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:51 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.380 | $4,062 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:48 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $3,122 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:47 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | SELL YES | 0.900 | $2,191 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:27 PM | 0x4ba34832 | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,955 | —— |
| May 22, 08:33 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.400 | $3,139 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.194 | $9,682 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:32 PM | 0xdb22a774 | SELL NO | 0.743 | $2,538 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:31 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.350 | $5,250 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 08:31 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.335 | $4,017 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.364 | $4,703 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:29 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.234 | $3,085 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 05:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $13.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 05:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,530 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 04:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.326 | $1,576 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:40 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.447 | $7,480 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.264 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $3,409 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:36 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.400 | $3,858 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 08:18 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL YES | 0.230 | $3,050 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.206 | $7,821 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 06:53 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL YES | 0.221 | $3,442 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $1,609 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:52 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.397 | $7,896 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $2,763 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.194 | $9,745 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:16 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,610 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.590 | $5,562 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:05 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.481 | $1,970 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $9,799 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:21 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY YES | 0.270 | $4,167 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | 0x35c73eb4 | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,359 | —— |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY YES | 0.240 | $4,067 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 05:16 PM | 0xdb22a774 | BUY NO | 0.800 | $3,485 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |