James000

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc96c…6a98 with our methodology badges per row.

0xc96cb25888f25ab1929b575834a6c406234f6a98·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-3%

historical realized

Win rate

33.8%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$821.8K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 49 resolved trades · -3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

110

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.28M

avg $11.6K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$640.4K / $635.3K

net direction

Recent trades

last 110 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 12, 03:45 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.190	$1,623	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 03:45 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.179	$16.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 07:39 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.997	$18.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:28 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	BUY NO	0.828	$2,889	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:26 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	BUY NO	0.810	$2,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:59 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$7,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:58 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,542	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:58 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.963	$3,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:55 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.930	$58.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:32 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.870	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:10 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.959	$58.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:09 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.958	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:03 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.820	$9,674	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,191	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$12.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$63.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:02 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.900	$42.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:45 AM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.830	$18.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 11:40 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.870	$61.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:12 AM	0x366f8964	SELL NO	0.985	$18.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 11:12 AM	0x366f8964	SELL NO	0.986	$6,816	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 11:09 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.930	$37.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:49 PM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.760	$7,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:32 PM	0xdf46f7d2	SELL NO	0.982	$1,768	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:31 PM	0xdf46f7d2	SELL NO	0.983	$2,949	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:31 PM	0xdf46f7d2	SELL NO	0.984	$1,256	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:31 PM	0xdf46f7d2	SELL NO	0.985	$1,379	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 08:00 AM	0xdf46f7d2	SELL NO	0.990	$3,960	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:43 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$16.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:42 PM	0xdf46f7d2	BUY NO	0.969	$4,089	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:48 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.780	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:45 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.966	$5,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:19 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,097	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:19 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.930	$4,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:47 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.690	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:27 AM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,252	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 08:47 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.740	$2,812	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:58 AM	0x366f8964	SELL NO	0.930	$25.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:40 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$14.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 02:36 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.890	$16.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:29 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.890	$7,992	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:31 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.955	$2,073	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:29 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.956	$1,879	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:29 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.957	$5,217	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:28 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.958	$1,725	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:27 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.960	$1,268	— (SELL)
May 31, 08:25 AM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.880	$9,263	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:48 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.983	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:47 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,024	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:12 PM	0xb03509e2	BUY NO	0.970	$25.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.930	$7,024	— (SELL)
May 30, 01:12 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.930	$17.2K	— (SELL)
May 30, 01:04 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.930	$10.2K	— (SELL)
May 30, 12:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.930	$16.8K	— (SELL)
May 29, 04:00 PM	0x8b369e10	BUY YES	0.656	$2,029	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:28 AM	0x71c49500	SELL NO	0.930	$4,650	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:10 AM	0x71c49500	SELL NO	0.930	$7,333	— (SELL)
May 28, 04:35 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.930	$4,958	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:30 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.920	$5,343	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:30 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.910	$1,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:18 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.971	$3,145	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:09 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.977	$25.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:08 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.970	$9,868	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:04 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.940	$5,095	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:04 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.950	$2,231	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:04 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.950	$9,548	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:04 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.956	$2,343	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:03 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.957	$2,345	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:02 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.961	$1,805	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:02 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.962	$1,446	— (SELL)
May 27, 04:58 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.970	$1,180	— (SELL)
May 27, 04:58 PM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.971	$2,986	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:16 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.977	$24.3K	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:10 AM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.890	$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:07 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.979	$35.5K	— (SELL)
May 27, 02:56 AM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.890	$5,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:22 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:22 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,368	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:20 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	SELL NO	0.985	$8,423	— (SELL)
May 26, 11:46 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.976	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:39 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.930	$6,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:39 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:35 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.970	$29.0K	— (SELL)
May 20, 03:41 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.320	$2,326	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 03:40 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.299	$8,997	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 02:21 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.958	$22.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:11 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.958	$1,619	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:42 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.300	$4,500	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.710	$34.6K	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:54 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.957	$19.1K	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:52 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.300	$4,190	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:51 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.710	$3,528	— (SELL)
May 15, 07:20 AM	0xaa145cf5	BUY YES	0.861	$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:19 AM	0xaa145cf5	BUY YES	0.845	$1,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:18 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.710	$14.2K	— (SELL)
May 14, 05:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.930	$9,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:24 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,823	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 05:59 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.290	$11.6K	Cheap band — no rep
May 13, 12:25 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.920	$60.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:01 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.670	$1,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 05:51 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.850	$18.8K	— (SELL)
May 9, 12:46 AM	0x667c01a1	BUY NO	0.950	$4,624	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:45 AM	0x2509daa2	BUY NO	0.890	$16.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:43 AM	0xc5331256	SELL NO	0.996	$19.9K	— (SELL)
May 8, 07:11 AM	0xc5331256	BUY NO	0.980	$8,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:11 AM	0xc5331256	BUY NO	0.979	$1,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:09 AM	0xc5331256	BUY NO	0.978	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:09 AM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.962	$20.8K	— (SELL)

Markets active in

23 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	11	$313.6K	$-102,362
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	13	$238.9K	$-17,979
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	10	$134.9K	+$60.5K
0x366f8964	—	8	$94.7K	$-7,227
0xbfca16aa	—	14	$91.1K	+$26.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	5	$56.4K	$-46,199
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	7	$49.7K	+$32.3K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Other	4	$43.3K	+$43.3K
0xc5331256	—	4	$41.0K	+$1,130
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	3	$27.7K	$-263
0x6114a8a3	—	2	$26.2K	$-11,527
0xb03509e2	—	1	$25.9K	+$25.9K
0x71c49500	—	5	$23.4K	$-599
0xffe381a8	—	1	$20.8K	$-20,798
0x2509daa2	—	1	$16.8K	+$16.8K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Other	3	$16.8K	$-58
0xdf46f7d2	—	6	$15.4K	$-7,223
0xaa145cf5	—	2	$13.4K	+$13.4K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Other	5	$12.2K	$-12,161
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Other	2	$5,822	+$5,822
0x667c01a1	—	1	$4,624	+$4,624
0x8b369e10	—	1	$2,029	+$2,029
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Finance	1	$1,252	$-1,252