| Jun 12, 05:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY NO | 0.828 | $2,889 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:26 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $7,199 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $1,542 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $3,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:55 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $58.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $58.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:03 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $9,674 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $1,191 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $12.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 12:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $63.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 02:02 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $42.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:45 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $18.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 11:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $61.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $18.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 11:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $6,816 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 11:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $37.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,353 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 01:32 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | SELL NO | 0.982 | $1,768 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 01:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $2,949 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 01:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $1,256 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 01:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $1,379 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 08:00 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $3,960 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $16.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:42 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $4,089 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:48 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 03:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $5,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,097 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:47 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:27 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,252 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 08:47 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $2,812 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 04:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $25.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $14.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 02:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $16.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $7,992 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:31 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.955 | $2,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 09:29 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.956 | $1,879 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 09:29 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $5,217 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 09:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.958 | $1,725 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 09:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $1,268 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 08:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $9,263 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $12.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $1,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $25.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 01:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $7,024 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 01:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $17.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 01:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $10.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 12:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:00 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.656 | $2,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 09:28 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $7,333 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:35 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,958 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:30 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $5,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:30 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $3,145 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:09 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $25.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:08 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $9,868 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:04 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $5,095 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:04 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $2,231 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:04 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $9,548 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:04 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.956 | $2,343 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:03 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $2,345 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:02 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $1,805 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:02 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $1,446 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.970 | $1,180 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $2,986 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:16 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.977 | $24.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $17.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:07 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $35.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:56 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $5,429 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $1,233 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:22 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $1,368 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 01:20 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $8,423 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $11.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.970 | $29.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:41 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $2,326 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 03:40 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.299 | $8,997 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 19, 02:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $22.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.958 | $1,619 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:42 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $4,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 01:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $34.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 12:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $19.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 12:52 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $4,190 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 12:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $3,528 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 07:20 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY YES | 0.861 | $12.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 07:19 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY YES | 0.845 | $1,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 07:18 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $14.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 05:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $9,114 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 07:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,823 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 05:59 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $11.6K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 13, 12:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $60.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,621 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 05:51 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $18.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 12:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,624 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:45 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $8,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $1,928 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:09 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $20.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 05:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.815 | $8,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 05:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.814 | $1,653 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 05:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.813 | $1,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 12:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $25.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 11:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,649 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:41 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $1,422 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $1,432 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 05:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 05:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.869 | $1,535 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 09:44 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $3,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 04:36 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.677 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:54 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $54.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 03:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $53.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 07:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $32.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 07:33 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.784 | $32.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:32 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 07:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,736 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 11:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $6,061 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 08:50 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,393 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 08:49 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $6,463 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $7,123 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $7,123 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 05:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $8,800 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 02:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,943 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.580 | $2,950 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 11:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 11:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $2,950 | —— |
| Apr 27, 11:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 11:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $28.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 04:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $6,239 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 04:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 10:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $8,027 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |