QuietRiskisWrong

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x88c4…129a with our methodology badges per row.

0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-43%

historical realized

Win rate

50.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$267.7K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 86 resolved trades · -43% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$677.9K

avg $3,389 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$384.2K / $293.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 09:53 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,276	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 09:38 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.929	$2,776	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 09:27 AM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	BUY YES	0.889	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:19 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.923	$14.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:25 PM	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	BUY NO	0.937	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:09 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of July 13 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:03 PM	Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.895	$1,060	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:18 PM	Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	BUY NO	0.950	$1,513	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.929	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 05:04 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.917	$1,106	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:03 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 08:57 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.880	$2,033	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 04:44 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:42 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:40 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.890	$4,929	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 01:55 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.936	$2,725	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 12:02 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.899	$1,626	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:02 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.870	$1,768	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:32 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 09:32 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.942	$1,111	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 07:44 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.928	$1,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 07:43 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,143	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 02:43 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:46 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,181	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:45 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.993	$1,181	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:18 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:17 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.994	$1,490	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 09:08 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 09:06 PM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,528	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:40 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,948	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:40 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$3,948	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:30 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:29 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,975	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:29 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.988	$1,072	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:29 PM	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	BUY YES	0.920	$2,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 02:28 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,551	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 02:27 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,512	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 02:27 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$6,909	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 01:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$7,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.856	$1,767	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$9,870	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:24 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:24 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.985	$1,970	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 12:22 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.842	$1,139	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 12:22 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.860	$2,580	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 09:09 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:08 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:07 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.855	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:05 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$4,350	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 09:04 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.855	$4,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$4,350	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 08:02 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$2,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:01 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:00 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.995	$6,127	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 03:59 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$7,456	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:58 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.995	$3,122	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 03:58 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.994	$4,676	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 11:39 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$2,443	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 11:34 AM	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.691	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:11 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.759	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.810	$2,430	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.991	$3,734	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:07 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$2,460	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:05 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:33 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.800	$2,400	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:30 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.746	$2,239	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:29 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.740	$2,220	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:07 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.700	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:06 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.770	$2,311	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:05 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$2,463	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:04 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.637	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:19 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$1,561	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:18 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$2,370	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:14 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:13 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:12 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:36 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.796	$1,592	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 10:56 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.817	$1,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:55 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.800	$1,600	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 09:29 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,724	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 09:01 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.716	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:23 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:52 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:25 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:56 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.622	$2,825	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:14 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,213	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.794	$1,588	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:13 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.792	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:57 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,459	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 03:16 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 12:24 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:23 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 02:46 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,660	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:47 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 05:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 05:14 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,390	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:34 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,660	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 10:17 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.840	$8,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:15 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:15 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.948	$13.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 09:58 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:57 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:56 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.810	$7,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:56 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.885	$1,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:44 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.791	$1,799	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:09 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.879	$3,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:07 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:26 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:26 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.928	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:20 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:13 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.830	$3,896	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.820	$2,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.897	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.950	$9,440	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:34 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:33 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:32 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.804	$1,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:32 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.855	$1,828	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:31 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.890	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:31 AM	0xbdf0bbe0	BUY YES	0.940	$2,623	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:30 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.950	$6,039	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:30 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.997	$28.1K	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:29 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.790	$3,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:29 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.840	$2,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:43 AM	0xbdf0bbe0	BUY YES	0.900	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:43 AM	0xe3578450	SELL NO	0.994	$1,371	— (SELL)
May 24, 05:34 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.940	$2,912	— (SELL)
May 23, 09:28 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY YES	0.640	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:27 PM	0x1eeb9106	SELL YES	0.983	$6,017	— (SELL)
May 23, 09:26 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY YES	0.640	$1,224	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:26 PM	0x1eeb9106	SELL YES	0.983	$1,224	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:57 PM	0x1eeb9106	SELL YES	0.975	$1,628	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:06 PM	0x1eeb9106	BUY YES	0.940	$3,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:04 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.810	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:03 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$7,883	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:51 AM	0x1eeb9106	BUY YES	0.900	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:51 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:35 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:34 AM	0x1eeb9106	BUY YES	0.907	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:54 AM	0x92485347	BUY YES	0.780	$1,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:54 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$3,490	— (SELL)
May 23, 04:49 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.729	$3,544	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:48 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.890	$3,560	— (SELL)
May 23, 04:38 AM	0x1eeb9106	BUY YES	0.910	$1,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:37 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$2,988	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:08 AM	0x1eeb9106	BUY YES	0.860	$1,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:48 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.699	$1,399	— (SELL)
May 22, 09:41 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.871	$1,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,118	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.906	$3,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.739	$7,395	— (SELL)
May 22, 01:40 PM	0xb7dd41c1	BUY NO	0.820	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:36 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.808	$1,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:34 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.766	$7,662	— (SELL)
May 22, 12:58 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,855	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:58 PM	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	SELL NO	0.935	$1,862	— (SELL)
May 22, 04:19 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.900	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:15 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.890	$2,515	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.890	$3,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,249	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.760	$2,708	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:13 AM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.999	$14.2K	— (SELL)
May 21, 05:09 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.850	$2,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:09 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$2,312	— (SELL)
May 21, 04:42 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.520	$1,964	—
May 21, 04:40 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.977	$3,153	— (SELL)
May 21, 12:41 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:39 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.940	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:38 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.790	$8,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:37 PM	0xe3578450	BUY NO	0.870	$3,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.719	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.830	$2,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:26 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.680	$1,349	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:25 AM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.984	$3,936	— (SELL)
May 20, 10:23 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.830	$2,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:23 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.962	$2,887	— (SELL)
May 20, 08:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.570	$2,000	—
May 20, 08:10 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.950	$2,850	— (SELL)
May 20, 06:51 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.800	$1,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:28 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.920	$6,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:27 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.908	$2,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:46 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.722	$2,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:44 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.050	$3,425	— (SELL)
May 18, 10:17 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.930	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:11 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.059	$1,172	— (SELL)
May 18, 10:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.719	$18.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:10 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.924	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:10 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.900	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:02 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:34 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:33 AM	0x6680cae9	SELL NO	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
May 17, 01:33 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$3,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:32 AM	0x6680cae9	SELL NO	0.999	$3,996	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:28 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.936	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:00 PM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.950	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:39 AM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.955	$3,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:38 AM	0x6680cae9	BUY NO	0.950	$2,406	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

51 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	37	$148.5K	$-36,801
0x098afead	—	10	$53.1K	$-992
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	5	$47.1K	$-9,197
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	10	$37.3K	+$627
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	12	$33.8K	$-22,993
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Tech	11	$28.1K	+$28.1K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Other	2	$27.5K	+$27.5K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Tech	9	$25.9K	+$25.9K
0x6680cae9	—	6	$23.7K	+$5,700
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Other	3	$19.2K	$-2,402
0x1eeb9106	—	8	$18.4K	+$695
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	9	$16.9K	+$5,152
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	3	$15.9K	$-15,912
0x4ba34832	—	6	$15.6K	+$15.6K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Other	4	$13.7K	+$13.7K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	1	$13.3K	$-13,295
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Other	6	$13.0K	$-4,456
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	2	$9,199	+$9,199
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Other	2	$8,747	+$8,747
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	3	$7,248	+$7,248
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Other	2	$7,224	+$7,224
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Other	3	$7,203	+$7,203
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Other	3	$6,498	+$6,498
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Other	2	$6,322	+$6,322
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Other	4	$6,261	$-3,699
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	2	$5,656	+$2,208
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Tech	2	$5,052	+$5,052
0xe3578450	—	2	$4,817	+$2,075
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	2	$4,649	+$25
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Other	2	$4,597	$-4,597

Showing top 30 by volume.