QuietRiskisWrong

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x88c4…129a with our methodology badges per row.

0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

269

lifetime

PnL per $

-51%

historical realized

Win rate

38.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.06M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 269 resolved trades · -51% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$912.6K

avg $4,563 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$577.0K / $335.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 03:11 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.759	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.810	$2,430	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.991	$3,734	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:07 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$2,460	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:05 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:33 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.800	$2,400	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:30 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.746	$2,239	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:29 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.740	$2,220	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:07 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.700	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:06 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.770	$2,311	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:05 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$2,463	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 04:04 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.637	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:19 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$1,561	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:18 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$2,370	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:14 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:13 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:12 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:36 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.796	$1,592	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 10:56 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.817	$1,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:55 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.800	$1,600	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 09:29 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,724	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 09:01 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.716	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:23 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:52 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:25 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$8,300	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:56 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.622	$2,825	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:14 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,213	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.794	$1,588	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:13 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.792	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:57 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,459	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 03:16 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 12:24 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:23 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 02:46 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,660	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:47 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 05:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 05:14 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,390	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:34 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,660	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 10:17 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.840	$8,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:15 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:15 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.948	$13.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 09:58 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:57 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:56 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.810	$7,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:56 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.885	$1,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:44 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.791	$1,799	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:09 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.879	$3,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:07 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:26 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:26 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.928	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:20 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:13 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.830	$3,896	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.820	$2,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.897	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.950	$9,440	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:34 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:33 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:32 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.804	$1,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:32 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.855	$1,828	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:31 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.890	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:31 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	BUY YES	0.940	$2,623	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:30 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.950	$6,039	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:30 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.997	$28.1K	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:29 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.790	$3,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:29 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.840	$2,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:43 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:43 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	SELL NO	0.994	$1,371	— (SELL)
May 24, 05:34 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.940	$2,912	— (SELL)
May 23, 09:28 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY YES	0.640	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:27 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.983	$6,017	— (SELL)
May 23, 09:26 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	BUY YES	0.640	$1,224	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:26 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.983	$1,224	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:57 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.975	$1,628	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:06 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.940	$3,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:04 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.810	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:03 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$7,883	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:51 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:51 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:35 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:34 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.907	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:54 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	BUY YES	0.780	$1,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:54 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$3,490	— (SELL)
May 23, 04:49 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.729	$3,544	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:48 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.890	$3,560	— (SELL)
May 23, 04:38 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:37 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$2,988	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:08 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:48 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.699	$1,399	— (SELL)
May 22, 09:41 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.871	$1,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,118	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.906	$3,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:40 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.739	$7,395	— (SELL)
May 22, 01:40 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:36 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.808	$1,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:34 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.766	$7,662	— (SELL)
May 22, 12:58 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,855	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:58 PM	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	SELL NO	0.935	$1,862	— (SELL)
May 22, 04:19 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:15 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.890	$2,515	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,249	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:14 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.760	$2,708	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:13 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.999	$14.2K	— (SELL)
May 21, 05:09 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:09 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$2,312	— (SELL)
May 21, 04:42 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.520	$1,964	—
May 21, 04:40 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.977	$3,153	— (SELL)
May 21, 12:41 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:39 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.940	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:38 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.790	$8,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:37 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,446	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.719	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:36 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:26 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.680	$1,349	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 01:25 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.984	$3,936	— (SELL)
May 20, 10:23 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:23 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.962	$2,887	— (SELL)
May 20, 08:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.570	$2,000	—
May 20, 08:10 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.950	$2,850	— (SELL)
May 20, 06:51 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:28 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.920	$6,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:27 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.908	$2,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:46 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.722	$2,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:44 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.050	$3,425	— (SELL)
May 18, 10:17 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:11 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.059	$1,172	— (SELL)
May 18, 10:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.719	$18.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 10:10 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.924	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:10 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.900	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:02 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:34 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:33 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
May 17, 01:33 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$3,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:32 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,996	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:28 PM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.936	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:00 PM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:39 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.955	$3,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:38 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,406	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:52 PM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.944	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:51 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.559	$1,085	—
May 12, 03:56 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.558	$7,505	—
May 12, 02:04 AM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.549	$5,000	—
May 11, 04:15 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 04:15 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.640	$1,161	— (SELL)
May 11, 02:29 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.750	$8,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 02:27 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.760	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 02:26 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.748	$3,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 02:26 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.914	$8,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:18 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.750	$8,971	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:15 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.750	$11.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:14 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.740	$14.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:01 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.738	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:19 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$2,160	— (SELL)
May 11, 12:16 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$3,600	— (SELL)
May 11, 12:14 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$3,600	— (SELL)
May 11, 12:03 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$5,760	— (SELL)
May 11, 12:01 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$5,760	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:54 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$1,440	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:52 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$1,440	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:50 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.729	$3,646	— (SELL)
May 10, 12:49 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 03:47 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.890	$5,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 11:03 PM	Will Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,798	— (SELL)
May 9, 11:02 PM	Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,154	— (SELL)
May 9, 10:01 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.790	$1,264	— (SELL)
May 9, 09:47 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.783	$2,349	— (SELL)
May 9, 09:31 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$2,747	— (SELL)
May 9, 01:10 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.740	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:45 PM	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.599	$1,684	—
May 9, 12:42 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.860	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:35 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	SELL NO	0.998	$7,004	— (SELL)
May 9, 04:34 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
May 9, 02:52 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	BUY NO	0.998	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 02:17 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.799	$54.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 02:16 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.790	$5,811	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 01:30 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$15.6K	— (SELL)
May 9, 01:28 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$15.6K	— (SELL)
May 9, 01:27 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.780	$15.6K	— (SELL)
May 9, 01:12 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$5,963	— (SELL)
May 9, 01:10 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,840	— (SELL)
May 8, 11:46 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	SELL NO	0.990	$1,337	— (SELL)
May 8, 11:34 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	SELL NO	0.987	$3,948	— (SELL)
May 8, 11:32 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	SELL NO	0.989	$1,080	— (SELL)
May 8, 12:42 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.800	$2,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 11:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.770	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 10:18 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,032	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 10:07 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	BUY NO	0.940	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 09:44 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 04:29 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.877	$1,388	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:49 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.810	$2,870	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:48 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.810	$4,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:39 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,747	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 11:31 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.870	$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 04:24 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 04:21 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$24.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 04:14 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$7,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 04:13 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.790	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

42 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	61	$432.6K	+$114.2K
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Tech	10	$53.1K	$-992
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	5	$47.1K	$-9,197
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	10	$37.3K	+$627
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Tech	8	$27.4K	$-3,333
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Other	7	$25.7K	+$7,700
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	2	$25.5K	$-1,095
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Other	6	$19.9K	+$10.7K
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Tech	7	$19.3K	+$19.3K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Other	8	$18.4K	+$695
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	9	$16.9K	+$5,152
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	3	$15.9K	$-15,912
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	6	$15.6K	+$15.6K
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Tech	3	$15.0K	+$15.0K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Other	4	$13.7K	+$13.7K
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	2	$9,199	+$9,199
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	4	$9,143	$-975
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Other	2	$8,747	+$8,747
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Other	1	$8,400	+$8,400
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	2	$7,803	$-7,803
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	3	$7,248	+$7,248
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Other	2	$7,224	+$7,224
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Other	3	$7,203	+$7,203
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Other	3	$6,498	+$6,498
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Other	2	$6,322	+$6,322
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Tech	2	$5,700	+$5,700
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	2	$5,656	+$2,208
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	4	$5,422	+$5,422
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	2	$4,817	+$2,075
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Other	2	$3,994	+$3,994

Showing top 30 by volume.