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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfa32…bd9a with our methodology badges per row.

0xfa323e40632edca701abc6c8cf1f82175909bd9a·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
18
lifetime
PnL per $
-39%
historical realized
Win rate
45.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$38.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 18 resolved trades · -39% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
44
Distinct markets
34
Volume (90d)
$130.6K
avg $2,968 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$76.0K / $54.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 44 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 8, 11:13 PMWill GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?BUY NO0.969$1,066Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 11:08 PMWill Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?BUY NO0.950$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL NO0.410$2,002— (SELL)
Jul 7, 07:27 PMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.665$1,237Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 03:43 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY NO0.380$1,410Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 08:41 PMWill Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?BUY YES0.920$3,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:13 PMWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY YES0.620$2,790Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:11 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY NO0.390$1,435Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 07:26 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.860$26.2K— (SELL)
Jul 1, 05:27 PMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?BUY NO0.780$1,560Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:57 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY YES0.860$1,032Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:29 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL YES0.170$1,186— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:29 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.620$3,373Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:18 AMBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?BUY NO0.650$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 03:11 AMWill Egypt win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.620$1,240Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:10 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.933$1,120Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 07:43 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.432$1,080—
Jun 25, 06:47 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.510$4,392— (SELL)
Jun 25, 02:44 AMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.780$1,950Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 02:41 AMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.730$1,825Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:05 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.350$1,730— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:09 AM0x16608c4fBUY NO0.620$1,872Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:53 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.790$1,435Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:52 AM0x258031a5BUY NO0.560$1,230—
Jun 11, 02:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?BUY NO0.660$2,604Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:33 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?BUY NO0.932$1,201Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:32 AMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL NO0.993$4,965— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:29 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?BUY NO0.660$2,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:05 PM0x2cd24d17BUY NO0.950$2,336Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:51 AMWill GameStop acquire eBay?SELL NO0.840$6,720— (SELL)
Jun 9, 02:46 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?SELL NO0.530$1,272— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:25 AMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.680$1,360Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:41 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.650$1,624Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:36 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.070$1,750— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:31 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?BUY NO0.602$1,505Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:29 AM0x35c73eb4BUY NO0.899$4,944Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 01:02 AMWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.020$1,100— (SELL)
May 28, 01:39 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.929$1,702— (SELL)
May 27, 02:48 AM0xdb22a774BUY NO0.964$4,820Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:17 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.940$3,290Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:30 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.110$1,540— (SELL)
May 13, 12:46 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.350$2,800Killed band — neutral expectation
May 11, 03:01 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.730$1,825Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:58 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.928$4,180Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

34 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$27.7K$-24,782
Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?Other1$10.4K+$10.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech2$7,765$-1,019
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other1$6,720$-6,720
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Other3$6,476+$3,932
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics1$4,965$-4,965
0x35c73eb4—1$4,944+$4,944
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Tech3$4,847+$843
0xdb22a774—1$4,820+$4,820
0x6114a8a3—2$4,530+$1,070
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Other1$4,180+$4,180
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?Other2$3,775+$3,775
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto2$3,527+$123
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other1$3,290+$3,290
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Other1$3,220+$3,220
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Politics2$2,984+$2,984
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics1$2,790+$2,790
0x2cd24d17—1$2,336+$2,336
0x16608c4f—1$1,872+$1,872
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other1$1,750$-1,750
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics1$1,600+$1,600
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Other1$1,560+$1,560
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other1$1,540$-1,540
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Crypto1$1,505+$1,505
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?Other1$1,240+$1,240
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Other1$1,237+$1,237
0x258031a5—1$1,230+$1,230
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Politics1$1,201+$1,201
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Tech1$1,186$-1,186
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?Other1$1,120+$1,120

Showing top 30 by volume.