| Jul 20, 11:49 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.560 | $5,574 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 10:39 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,849 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 08:05 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $3,382 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 20, 07:55 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL YES | 0.216 | $1,567 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 07:40 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $39.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 09:40 AM | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.538 | $1,061 | —— |
| Jul 14, 08:08 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.621 | $1,376 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 03:01 PM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? | SELL YES | 0.497 | $1,843 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 12:35 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? | BUY YES | 0.486 | $1,804 | —— |
| Jul 12, 12:19 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,731 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 12:18 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY YES | 0.148 | $1,007 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 11:38 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $26.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 11, 12:30 AM | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,571 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 11:35 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.911 | $7,012 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 11:35 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL NO | 0.947 | $4,306 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 11:35 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.939 | $6,262 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 03:14 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8? | BUY YES | 0.282 | $1,139 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 7, 12:24 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $2,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:46 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,162 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:31 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? | BUY YES | 0.581 | $1,459 | —— |
| Jun 30, 01:40 AM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,124 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 29, 10:36 AM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $3,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 02:05 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.734 | $8,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 02:19 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.912 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 02:16 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.619 | $1,607 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 23, 01:54 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.504 | $1,497 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 01:28 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $2,558 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:39 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $5,394 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 04:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.252 | $2,516 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 03:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.207 | $1,830 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 02:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $3,761 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:34 AM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,398 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.178 | $1,674 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.172 | $1,670 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:59 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,699 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:59 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,191 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:43 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.440 | $4,490 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 04:30 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.943 | $20.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 07:02 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $30.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.354 | $4,762 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:21 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $5,828 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 02:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $7,778 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:49 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.191 | $2,512 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 01:47 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $1,368 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:40 PM | 0xbeab8314 | BUY YES | 0.230 | $3,121 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 05:13 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.398 | $1,415 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:40 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,096 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:30 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.468 | $1,864 | —— |
| May 28, 04:50 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $3,202 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 11:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.120 | $7,561 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 03:11 PM | 0x9a87a001 | BUY YES | 0.546 | $3,098 | —— |
| May 26, 03:30 AM | 0xa37173a8 | SELL YES | 0.336 | $1,871 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:02 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $3,482 | —— |
| May 25, 01:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $2,667 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $3,881 | —— |
| May 23, 10:05 PM | 0xbeab8314 | BUY YES | 0.144 | $1,593 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 09:54 PM | 0xa37173a8 | BUY YES | 0.449 | $1,011 | —— |
| May 23, 09:09 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY YES | 0.105 | $1,152 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.372 | $3,281 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:38 AM | 0x303f1601 | BUY YES | 0.710 | $5,282 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:32 AM | 0x12e58193 | BUY NO | 0.700 | $6,599 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 12:51 AM | 0x303f1601 | BUY YES | 0.710 | $6,431 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:29 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.247 | $1,787 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 03:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $3,471 | —— |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $6,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 09:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,112 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 04:04 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,361 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 10:14 PM | 0xc6ddb19f | BUY NO | 0.791 | $2,268 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 01:18 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.323 | $2,712 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 03:29 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.569 | $2,834 | —— |
| May 15, 08:43 PM | 0x084b3d2d | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,815 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 05:22 PM | 0x5341e90b | SELL NO | 0.997 | $10.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:21 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $14.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 06:30 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | BUY NO | 0.495 | $1,262 | —— |
| May 14, 10:40 AM | 0x9a72bb55 | BUY NO | 0.479 | $1,538 | —— |
| May 14, 12:45 AM | 0x7d3a7b23 | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 07:33 PM | 0x95e0a414 | BUY NO | 0.514 | $2,383 | —— |
| May 10, 07:16 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,959 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 07:03 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,955 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 01:25 AM | 0x4495596e | BUY NO | 0.530 | $1,033 | —— |