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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xd104…acef with our methodology badges per row.

0xd1049158a102840ce595efc6ab683a0cb6fbacef·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
99
lifetime
PnL per $
-12%
historical realized
Win rate
74.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.90M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 99 resolved trades · -12% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
101
Distinct markets
45
Volume (90d)
$1.93M
avg $19.1K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.61M / $323.9K
net direction

Recent trades

last 101 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 06:52 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.690$4,457— (SELL)
Jul 19, 04:11 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.690$22.3K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 12:20 PMWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?BUY NO0.975$9,750Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:17 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.930$18.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:33 PMIran full airspace closure by July 21?BUY NO0.810$7,051Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:17 PMWill France win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.530$10.1K
Jul 15, 10:00 PMIran full airspace closure by July 15?BUY NO0.994$30.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:13 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.987$4,012Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:39 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.570$6,555
Jul 11, 11:54 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.573$10.0K
Jul 11, 11:28 PMLionel Messi: 1+ goalsBUY YES0.510$2,550
Jul 11, 08:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.527$9,759
Jul 10, 05:20 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY NO0.843$16.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 05:27 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.940$47.0K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 04:24 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.870$43.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:13 PMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.590$23.6K
Jul 7, 05:40 PMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.018$3,692
Jul 7, 05:32 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?SELL NO0.190$6,966— (SELL)
Jul 7, 05:20 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?SELL YES0.300$3,052— (SELL)
Jul 7, 05:17 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?SELL YES0.340$2,406— (SELL)
Jul 7, 04:34 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.770$5,947Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:32 AMSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to ScoreBUY YES0.510$10,000
Jul 3, 07:08 AMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.968$56.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:14 AMWill Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.995$56.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:14 AMWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.992$125.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:14 AMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.989$98.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:48 AMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.970$5,904Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:43 AMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.982$170.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:43 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.976$187.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:19 AMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.014$3,500— (SELL)
Jun 27, 06:19 AMWill Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.002$2,800— (SELL)
Jun 27, 06:18 AMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.001$3,500— (SELL)
Jun 10, 01:33 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 11?BUY NO0.956$4,862Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:59 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.022$5,280
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.053$5,007Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.085$8,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.086$8,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.102$10.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.109$10.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:40 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.161$16.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:40 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.163$16.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 08:07 AMIsrael closes its airspace by June 10?BUY NO0.985$3,818Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:58 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.986$5,226Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:58 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$20.9K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:58 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$7,144— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:37 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.986$5,013Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:37 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.985$7,737Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:31 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.979$5,367Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$14.8KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$28.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.004$1,691
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.004$3,909
Jun 9, 07:56 PMWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.003$1,573
Jun 9, 07:56 PMWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.003$1,577
Jun 9, 07:51 PMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.002$4,822
Jun 9, 07:46 PMWill Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.005$5,000
Jun 9, 07:45 PMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.020$5,000
Jun 9, 07:40 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.970$18.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:06 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.984$23.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:06 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?SELL NO0.984$14.3K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:05 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.972$7,224Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.990$5,083— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:04 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.972$14.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:59 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?SELL NO0.989$1,613— (SELL)
Jun 9, 04:57 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.969$9,382Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:55 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.955$19.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:10 AMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$5,400Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.084$8,400Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.085$8,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.099$5,319Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.110$11.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.160$16.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.162$16.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 08:30 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.973$52.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:30 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.970$13.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:29 AMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.990$3,324Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:15 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.963$8,284Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:15 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.950$2,019Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:16 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.992$36.0K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:23 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.992$39.7K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:23 PMIran closes its airspace by June 15?SELL YES0.998$5,335— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:22 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.960$2,997Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:29 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.990$26.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:28 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.968$3,098Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:28 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.984$19.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:21 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?SELL YES0.999$69.4K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 12:30 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.974$38.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:29 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.950$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:06 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.696$2,421Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:05 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.677$1,242Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:10 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?SELL NO0.505$12.5K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:09 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?SELL NO0.506$3,178— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:09 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?SELL NO0.601$12.8K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:05 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.697$3,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:52 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.454$5,704
Jun 7, 06:50 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.348$1,285Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 06:49 PMIran closes its airspace by June 15?BUY YES0.477$2,552
Jun 7, 06:49 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.436$10.7K
Jun 7, 06:05 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.970$23.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:03 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.991$54.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:02 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.966$62.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

45 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other8$220.2K+$220.2K
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$217.7K+$123.7K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$187.6K+$187.6K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance4$135.0K$-26,420
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$125.4K+$125.4K
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Tech12$106.4K+$106.4K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Tech8$105.1K$-33,811
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$104.2K+$104.2K
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other6$81.3K+$25.2K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$62.4K+$62.4K
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$56.1K+$56.1K
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Tech2$46.0K+$46.0K
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?Other1$43.5K+$43.5K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$32.3K+$32.3K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech2$32.3K+$32.3K
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Tech1$30.1K+$30.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$26.7K$-26,744
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Tech2$25.3K$-25,282
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$25.2K+$25.2K
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Other1$23.6K+$23.6K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$21.9K+$21.9K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$17.1K+$17.1K
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$16.9K+$16.9K
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?Other1$16.9K+$16.9K
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?Crypto2$15.9K$-15,930
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$15.5K+$15.5K
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Other2$12.9K$-1,019
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$12.0K+$5,014
Will France win on 2026-07-18?Other1$10.1K+$10.1K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K

Showing top 30 by volume.