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pilimili

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xd104…acef with our methodology badges per row.

0xd1049158a102840ce595efc6ab683a0cb6fbacef·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
32
lifetime
PnL per $
-34%
historical realized
Win rate
58.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$434.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 32 resolved trades · -34% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
69
Distinct markets
24
Volume (90d)
$919.9K
avg $13.3K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$691.9K / $227.9K
net direction

Recent trades

last 69 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 10, 01:33 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 11?BUY NO0.956$4,862Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:59 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.022$5,280
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.053$5,007Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.085$8,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.086$8,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.102$10.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:41 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.109$10.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:40 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.161$16.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:40 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.163$16.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 08:07 AMIsrael closes its airspace by June 10?BUY NO0.985$3,818Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:58 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.986$5,226Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:58 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$20.9K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:58 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$7,144— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:37 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.986$5,013Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:37 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.985$7,737Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:31 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.979$5,367Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$14.8KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$28.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.004$1,691
Jun 9, 07:59 PMWill Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.004$3,909
Jun 9, 07:56 PMWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.003$1,573
Jun 9, 07:56 PMWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.003$1,577
Jun 9, 07:51 PMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.002$4,822
Jun 9, 07:46 PMWill Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.005$5,000
Jun 9, 07:45 PMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.020$5,000
Jun 9, 07:40 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.970$18.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:06 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.984$23.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:06 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?SELL NO0.984$14.3K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:05 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.972$7,224Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.990$5,083— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:04 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.972$14.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:59 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?SELL NO0.989$1,613— (SELL)
Jun 9, 04:57 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.969$9,382Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:55 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.955$19.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:10 AMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$5,400Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.084$8,400Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.085$8,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:08 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.099$5,319Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.110$11.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.160$16.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 09:07 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.162$16.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 08:30 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.973$52.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:30 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.970$13.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:29 AMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.990$3,324Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:15 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.963$8,284Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:15 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.950$2,019Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:16 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.992$36.0K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:23 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.992$39.7K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:23 PMIran closes its airspace by June 15?SELL YES0.998$5,335— (SELL)
Jun 8, 06:22 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.960$2,997Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:29 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.990$26.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:28 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 9?BUY NO0.968$3,098Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:28 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.984$19.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:21 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?SELL YES0.999$69.4K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 12:30 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.974$38.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:29 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.950$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:06 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.696$2,421Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:05 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.677$1,242Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:10 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?SELL NO0.505$12.5K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:09 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?SELL NO0.506$3,178— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:09 PMIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?SELL NO0.601$12.8K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:05 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.697$3,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:52 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.454$5,704
Jun 7, 06:50 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.348$1,285Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 06:49 PMIran closes its airspace by June 15?BUY YES0.477$2,552
Jun 7, 06:49 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY YES0.436$10.7K
Jun 7, 06:05 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.970$23.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:03 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.991$54.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:02 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.966$62.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

24 markets · sorted by volume