studmuffin6969

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa8af…325e with our methodology badges per row.

0xa8af4c7923857533b687df9bf02115156e3a325e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-1%

historical realized

Win rate

50.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$40.9K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 18 resolved trades · -1% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$185.0K

avg $3,558 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$70.9K / $114.2K

net direction

Recent trades

last 52 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 07:42 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.409	$1,636	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 07:29 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.760	$28.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 07:45 AM	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	SELL YES	0.762	$1,333	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 08:11 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$8,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:54 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.850	$34.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 06:17 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,966	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 06:15 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$2,449	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 11:13 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,187	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:04 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,820	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:42 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:42 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.200	$1,580	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:41 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.540	$2,322	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:35 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,245	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:03 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.972	$1,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:00 PM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,946	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:00 PM	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,291	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:58 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:20 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:01 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:54 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:53 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.972	$1,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:53 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.979	$1,958	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 03:53 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.970	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:10 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:53 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.857	$1,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:52 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.850	$1,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:50 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.844	$1,688	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:58 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL NO	0.953	$8,578	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:41 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.984	$2,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:15 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 05:47 PM	Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	SELL NO	0.961	$1,118	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 05:47 PM	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	SELL YES	0.957	$2,439	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:54 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$2,100	— (SELL)
May 30, 07:34 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
May 30, 07:33 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
May 29, 06:46 PM	Iran leadership change by December 31?	SELL NO	0.720	$1,414	— (SELL)
May 29, 06:46 PM	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY YES	0.706	$1,828	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:31 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL NO	0.840	$4,200	— (SELL)
May 29, 04:20 PM	0x8b0a049d	SELL NO	0.997	$4,985	— (SELL)
May 28, 08:25 PM	0x8b0a049d	BUY NO	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:25 PM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:14 PM	0x0220e320	BUY NO	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 08:24 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 08:22 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.994	$1,491	— (SELL)
May 18, 08:53 PM	0x5341e90b	BUY NO	0.983	$2,457	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 08:53 PM	0x7f4378c2	BUY NO	0.981	$2,943	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 08:52 PM	0xaa145cf5	BUY NO	0.980	$2,449	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:18 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.860	$8,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:17 AM	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	BUY YES	0.690	$1,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:25 AM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.997	$2,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:19 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.989	$5,982	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:17 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,425	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

34 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	8	$78.0K	$-52,790
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	4	$16.2K	+$1,040
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	2	$10.6K	$-6,578
0x789c947a	—	2	$7,473	$-7,473
0x8b0a049d	—	2	$6,979	$-2,991
0xc4c3dbcc	—	3	$5,829	+$5,829
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	3	$4,932	+$4,932
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Other	2	$3,161	+$495
0x1db02ba5	—	1	$2,991	+$2,991
0x7f4378c2	—	1	$2,943	+$2,943
0x5341e90b	—	1	$2,457	+$2,457
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Other	1	$2,449	$-2,449
0xaa145cf5	—	1	$2,449	+$2,449
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Politics	1	$2,439	$-2,439
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Other	1	$2,322	$-2,322
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	1	$2,284	+$2,284
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	1	$2,187	+$2,187
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Other	1	$2,100	$-2,100
0x0220e320	—	1	$1,998	+$1,998
0xd8617701	—	1	$1,996	+$1,996
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Other	1	$1,984	+$1,984
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Other	1	$1,966	+$1,966
0x2cd24d17	—	1	$1,958	$-1,958
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Other	1	$1,946	+$1,946
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Other	1	$1,944	+$1,944
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Other	1	$1,820	$-1,820
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Other	1	$1,820	+$1,820
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$1,636	$-1,636
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Other	1	$1,580	$-1,580
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	1	$1,425	+$1,425

Showing top 30 by volume.