| Jul 20, 11:38 AM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.357 | $1,369 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 09:33 PM | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 10:16 PM | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY YES | 0.410 | $10.9K | —— |
| Jul 14, 07:34 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $18.7K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 10, 09:26 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $18.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 09:24 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 03:04 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $7,973 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:25 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $23.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 11:54 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.723 | $9,799 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:53 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 03:12 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.131 | $1,769 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 11:18 AM | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.235 | $3,030 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 5, 07:54 PM | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | BUY NO | 0.618 | $5,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 06:22 PM | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY NO | 0.460 | $5,750 | —— |
| Jul 5, 11:16 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $5,429 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 11:38 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $87.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 09:05 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $52.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 08:53 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $5,772 | —— |
| Jul 1, 08:46 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.607 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 01:51 PM | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $11.5K | —— |
| Jun 27, 11:04 PM | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 11:57 PM | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 11:31 PM | Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $22.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 11:30 PM | Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $5,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 11:28 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $18.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 06:19 PM | Will France win on 2026-06-26? | SELL NO | 0.300 | $4,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 06:05 PM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $4,273 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 04:36 PM | Will France win on 2026-06-26? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $5,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 24, 05:11 PM | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,684 | —— |
| Jun 23, 07:17 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $25.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 07:16 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $27.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 12:33 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.398 | $1,090 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:18 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.127 | $1,075 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:16 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,416 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:19 AM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,506 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:18 AM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.122 | $2,352 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:55 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $7,596 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:23 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $17.7K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 9, 05:03 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.984 | $2,238 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 01:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,890 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 09:45 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $9,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.997 | $31.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.946 | $29.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.944 | $2,533 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:01 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.343 | $2,569 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 08:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,155 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 06:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $5,174 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 06:01 PM | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $5,952 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 05:03 PM | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.929 | $1,115 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:16 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $6,468 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 08:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $7,874 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:36 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,713 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 03:31 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.220 | $4,752 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,523 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:26 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.276 | $2,790 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 07:59 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $4,569 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $3,408 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 01:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $14.8K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 26, 02:00 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.022 | $1,914 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:57 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.032 | $3,659 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:51 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.025 | $3,481 | —— |
| May 26, 12:51 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.020 | $1,191 | —— |
| May 26, 12:40 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY NO | 0.022 | $1,451 | —— |
| May 25, 02:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $7,835 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:28 AM | 0xffb8a1a5 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $13.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:48 AM | 0xd3990526 | SELL YES | 0.260 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:26 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $6,255 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $7,171 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 22, 01:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $8,768 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $5,790 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:34 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY YES | 0.104 | $1,845 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 05:19 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY YES | 0.188 | $1,234 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 05:13 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,128 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 03:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:49 PM | 0x22014d44 | SELL NO | 0.918 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:43 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY YES | 0.097 | $3,767 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:28 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,810 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.370 | $3,735 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.165 | $3,252 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.303 | $26.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.314 | $23.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:17 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.360 | $9,649 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY YES | 0.494 | $6,153 | —— |
| May 20, 02:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.822 | $13.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:32 PM | 0xf30be111 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 07:36 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,431 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 02:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $23.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:46 AM | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $1,705 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 09:13 PM | 0x1bb8bd43 | BUY YES | 0.447 | $1,391 | —— |
| May 15, 04:24 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | BUY NO | 0.270 | $1,202 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 14, 06:15 PM | 0x4495596e | BUY NO | 0.883 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 02:13 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $38.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 01:55 PM | 0x4495596e | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,040 | —— |
| May 11, 08:38 PM | 0xb24aa722 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $2,092 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 05:11 PM | 0x65f204a8 | SELL YES | 0.989 | $2,660 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 01:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 10:53 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.390 | $9,750 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 10:40 PM | 0xa1d97efb | BUY YES | 0.048 | $2,161 | —— |
| May 9, 11:48 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 08:09 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY NO | 0.873 | $27.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 04:50 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $35.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 04:50 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | SELL YES | 0.999 | $34.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 01:28 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL NO | 0.875 | $8,861 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 03:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 02:53 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 02:51 AM | 0xc5331256 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $48.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:50 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.557 | $1,478 | —— |
| May 8, 06:50 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.950 | $5,452 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:14 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.251 | $3,351 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:13 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.249 | $4,722 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:06 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.321 | $2,155 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:04 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,186 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:02 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.198 | $1,835 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |