ohh.betAnalytics
Back to whale feed

0xdamocles

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf5c4…0926 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf5c49ad254b1d53ea0b86fb285dd3f11dc800926·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
29
lifetime
PnL per $
-19%
historical realized
Win rate
75.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$337.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 29 resolved trades · -19% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
41
Distinct markets
26
Volume (90d)
$504.0K
avg $12.3K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$349.0K / $155.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 41 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 10, 01:32 PMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY NO0.870$18.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 01:41 AMWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?BUY YES0.680$1,326Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:24 PMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?SELL NO0.740$6,364— (SELL)
Jul 6, 07:34 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL YES0.620$2,491— (SELL)
Jul 3, 06:40 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY NO0.841$1,682Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 12:57 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?BUY NO0.960$4,918Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:43 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.286$1,430Cheap band — no rep
Jun 25, 02:36 AMAlien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?BUY NO0.999$69.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:53 AMWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.925$3,236Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:19 AMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?SELL NO0.762$1,143— (SELL)
Jun 11, 10:52 PMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?SELL YES0.999$8,192— (SELL)
Jun 10, 07:18 PMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?BUY YES0.950$5,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:02 PMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?BUY YES0.890$1,958Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:39 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.910$18.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:31 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.955$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:37 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.973$8,561Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:47 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.830$3,320— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:41 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.840$12.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:15 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.966$1,546Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:42 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.991$44.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:41 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.998$46.5K— (SELL)
Jun 2, 01:40 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.991$97.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:18 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.972$8,748Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:42 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.640$3,198— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:24 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.714$3,570Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:49 AMIran coup attempt by June 30?BUY NO0.940$1,880Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:48 AM0x65f5c4e3BUY NO0.800$1,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:40 AM0xa1d97efbSELL NO0.999$20.0K— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:38 AMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.770$1,001Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:42 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.940$9,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:42 AM0xbcacd5a0SELL NO0.999$46.3K— (SELL)
May 30, 01:37 AM0x8b369e10BUY NO0.790$1,975Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:39 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?SELL YES0.650$2,795— (SELL)
May 27, 02:05 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.995$1,013Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:30 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?SELL YES0.978$3,326— (SELL)
May 26, 12:40 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.984$3,345Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:37 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?SELL NO0.870$7,591— (SELL)
May 25, 03:38 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.920$6,440Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:31 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.843$3,372Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 10:25 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.770$3,850— (SELL)
May 14, 01:25 AM0xa1d97efbBUY NO0.948$1,282Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

26 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto4$148.5K+$142.1K
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Other1$69.9K+$69.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech2$49.9K$-43,150
0xbcacd5a0—1$46.3K$-46,254
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Other2$24.8K+$12.1K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Other2$23.2K+$23.2K
0xa1d97efb—2$21.3K$-18,698
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Tech3$19.5K+$19.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech1$18.2K+$18.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$15.9K+$9,280
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Politics3$15.8K$-534
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other3$15.0K$-138
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other2$6,671+$19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Tech1$4,918+$4,918
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other1$3,850$-3,850
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Tech1$3,236+$3,236
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Other1$2,795$-2,795
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Tech1$2,491$-2,491
0x8b369e10—1$1,975+$1,975
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Other1$1,880+$1,880
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Other1$1,682+$1,682
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,430+$1,430
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech1$1,326+$1,326
0x65f5c4e3—1$1,200+$1,200
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?Politics1$1,143$-1,143
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Other1$1,001+$1,001