| Jun 11, 10:52 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $8,192 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:18 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $5,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 07:02 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,958 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:31 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $8,561 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:47 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $3,320 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:41 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 01:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $1,546 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:42 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $44.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:41 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $46.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 01:40 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $97.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:18 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $8,748 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:42 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $3,198 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.714 | $3,570 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:49 AM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:48 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:40 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:38 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:42 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:42 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $46.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 01:37 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,975 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $2,795 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $1,013 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:30 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.978 | $3,326 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 12:40 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.984 | $3,345 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $7,591 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $6,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.843 | $3,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $3,850 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 01:25 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $1,282 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:09 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $13.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $27.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 08:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,660 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 03:08 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 05:28 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,540 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 09:20 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,530 | —— |
| May 2, 03:11 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.705 | $1,411 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 03:04 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,004 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 01:10 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,014 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 01:09 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 08:59 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.929 | $2,786 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 08:10 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $17.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 05:44 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 05:19 PM | Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL NO | 0.314 | $1,069 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 04:18 PM | Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $1,524 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 23, 08:23 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 07:58 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $16.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 05:00 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $2,805 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:28 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:27 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $9,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 06:07 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $6,872 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 04:11 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 06:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,245 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 02:28 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.923 | $8,306 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 10:48 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,268 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 09:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.590 | $1,770 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 03:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,185 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 02:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $7,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 05:24 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.913 | $4,565 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 11:39 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $4,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 07:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $1,740 | —— |
| Apr 14, 02:54 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 02:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $2,370 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 04:58 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:30 PM | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:57 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $6,323 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 01:56 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $22.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 01:08 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $24.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 01:08 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $6,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 03:43 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,660 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 03:42 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.891 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:18 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $4,945 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:04 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $79.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 12:51 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.997 | $22.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 03:32 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.956 | $2,867 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 03:26 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.965 | $16.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:11 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.160 | $1,371 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 10:10 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.170 | $1,462 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 04:30 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.120 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 02:01 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.996 | $12.6K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 02:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:59 PM | 0x2cbfefb1 | BUY NO | 0.972 | $6,857 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:57 PM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.968 | $7,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 08:55 PM | 0x09e8f0db | SELL NO | 0.998 | $37.0K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 07:58 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.783 | $1,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 05:26 PM | 0x4befb52f | SELL NO | 0.890 | $7,518 | — (SELL) |