AdrianCronauer

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf9c1…39e2 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

107

lifetime

PnL per $

-44%

historical realized

Win rate

46.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$2.37M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 107 resolved trades · -44% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$3.26M

avg $16.3K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.35M / $1.91M

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
May 31, 03:08 PM	0xb7dd41c1	SELL NO	0.967	$9,667	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:07 PM	0x2bef40a1	SELL NO	0.995	$1,468	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:07 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.986	$4,551	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.399	$1,490	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.352	$1,738	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.665	$3,293	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.279	$1,397	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	SELL NO	0.198	$2,977	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.403	$3,822	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.485	$2,680	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$4,555	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:05 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL NO	0.378	$1,774	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL NO	0.579	$8,856	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	0xe02033ce	SELL NO	0.816	$7,246	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	0xe02033ce	SELL NO	0.489	$2,997	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	0xa96e7118	SELL NO	0.999	$15.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	0xf526b2fb	SELL NO	0.788	$8,160	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	0xf526b2fb	SELL NO	0.591	$4,828	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.986	$19.2K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x83831604	SELL NO	0.917	$18.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.548	$2,249	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.589	$3,501	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.647	$4,794	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL NO	0.684	$9,479	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x4dec0ddb	SELL NO	0.966	$25.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.810	$28.3K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0x366f8964	SELL NO	0.880	$27.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	0xbeab8314	SELL NO	0.980	$29.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.361	$5,138	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.647	$6,908	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.817	$14.5K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	0x8b369e10	SELL NO	0.952	$37.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.152	$3,150	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.140	$7,263	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.101	$11.7K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL YES	0.163	$5,200	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.684	$12.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.646	$3,784	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.706	$25.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.399	$13.5K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.762	$10.8K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.166	$10.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	0xd3026827	SELL NO	0.045	$1,090	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	0xd3026827	SELL NO	0.540	$3,524	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	0xd3026827	SELL NO	0.972	$29.5K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.956	$45.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.434	$6,432	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.869	$28.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.654	$7,409	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.106	$2,402	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.412	$14.2K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.895	$15.3K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.892	$59.3K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.915	$112.1K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.986	$201.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.989	$178.7K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.997	$488.8K	— (SELL)
May 31, 02:47 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,412	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:44 PM	0xb7dd41c1	BUY NO	0.984	$8,774	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:42 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.987	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:41 PM	0xbeab8314	BUY NO	0.985	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:46 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$84.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:45 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.969	$22.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:02 AM	0x8b369e10	BUY NO	0.969	$4,847	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:47 PM	0x8b369e10	BUY NO	0.890	$4,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:28 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.967	$38.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:32 AM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.850	$17.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:31 AM	0xd3026827	BUY NO	0.990	$17.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:28 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$19.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:28 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.950	$19.0K	— (SELL)
May 30, 09:24 AM	0xd3990526	BUY NO	0.974	$5,701	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:12 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.994	$1,148	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:02 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.990	$37.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:12 PM	0xd3990526	BUY NO	0.968	$8,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:02 PM	0xb7dd41c1	SELL YES	0.059	$1,056	— (SELL)
May 29, 10:57 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.974	$26.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:55 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.974	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:06 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.930	$24.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:56 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.900	$19.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.880	$5,309	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.880	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.749	$3,189	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:34 PM	0x8b369e10	BUY NO	0.354	$1,348	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 03:25 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.640	$7,011	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:20 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.890	$4,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:19 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,695	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:03 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.765	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$7,280	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:19 AM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.990	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:19 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:24 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.640	$4,753	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:06 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.990	$5,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:52 PM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.900	$1,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:34 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.975	$7,710	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.630	$6,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:31 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$16.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:20 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.968	$1,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:10 PM	0x0426ffe3	BUY NO	0.970	$4,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:08 PM	0xb03509e2	BUY NO	0.780	$2,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:01 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.970	$9,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:56 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.962	$7,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:48 PM	0x4dec0ddb	BUY NO	0.935	$1,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.919	$33.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:45 PM	0xd3026827	BUY NO	0.979	$5,244	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:06 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.908	$8,176	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:44 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.949	$30.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.650	$7,951	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:36 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.938	$41.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:10 AM	0x71c49500	BUY NO	0.940	$9,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:48 AM	0xe02033ce	BUY NO	0.940	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:34 AM	0xf526b2fb	BUY NO	0.680	$3,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:17 AM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.960	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:03 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.990	$41.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 07:33 PM	0xbeab8314	SELL NO	0.876	$4,499	— (SELL)
May 27, 05:33 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.970	$77.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:51 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.971	$6,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:12 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.670	$1,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:09 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.850	$6,793	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:57 PM	0xbeab8314	SELL NO	0.821	$1,659	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:43 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.760	$12.6K	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.519	$1,303	—
May 27, 03:35 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.760	$4,483	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:35 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.760	$4,781	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:15 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.860	$9,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:46 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.910	$1,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:47 AM	0xbfca16aa	SELL NO	0.930	$4,650	— (SELL)
May 27, 08:44 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.780	$7,672	— (SELL)
May 27, 08:44 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL NO	0.580	$1,896	— (SELL)
May 27, 08:37 AM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.930	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:47 AM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.910	$9,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:42 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.906	$1,027	— (SELL)
May 27, 01:56 AM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.888	$8,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:06 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.992	$19.8K	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:01 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.904	$3,425	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:00 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.975	$57.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:59 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.992	$59.5K	— (SELL)
May 26, 06:38 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$98.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:20 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY NO	0.660	$1,191	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:00 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.980	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:59 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$56.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:58 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.857	$6,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:54 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.899	$58.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:52 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,886	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:47 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.979	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:31 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.977	$49.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:30 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.970	$7,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:05 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:28 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:15 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.850	$2,643	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:05 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.901	$1,297	— (SELL)
May 25, 10:13 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.978	$8,583	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:13 PM	0xbeab8314	SELL NO	0.730	$6,489	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:37 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 07:14 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.987	$3,956	— (SELL)
May 25, 07:10 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.630	$2,519	— (SELL)
May 25, 07:00 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.987	$4,153	— (SELL)
May 25, 06:45 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.988	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:40 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,357	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:27 PM	0xbeab8314	SELL NO	0.750	$6,000	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:41 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.990	$4,950	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:40 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.972	$16.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:39 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.990	$4,950	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:24 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.957	$5,103	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:09 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,584	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:09 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.838	$4,695	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,294	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:34 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.985	$4,925	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:30 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.938	$4,344	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:29 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:25 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.933	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:23 PM	0xa743ce4a	SELL YES	0.992	$5,239	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:22 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.924	$2,772	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:17 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.984	$4,920	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:09 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.985	$4,925	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:07 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.934	$2,366	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:07 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.985	$4,925	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:02 PM	0xa743ce4a	SELL YES	0.994	$2,223	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:01 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.985	$4,925	— (SELL)
May 25, 11:05 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	BUY NO	0.960	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:03 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,670	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:45 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.998	$29.5K	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:56 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.882	$1,198	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:32 AM	0x92485347	BUY YES	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:25 AM	0x1eeb9106	SELL YES	0.999	$16.1K	— (SELL)
May 25, 02:12 AM	0xbeab8314	BUY NO	0.848	$4,655	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:36 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.864	$5,993	— (SELL)
May 25, 01:05 AM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.917	$5,843	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:50 AM	0xd3026827	BUY NO	0.947	$6,106	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$8,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$13.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.881	$1,531	— (SELL)
May 24, 11:40 PM	0xa743ce4a	BUY YES	0.954	$2,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:53 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.850	$1,700	— (SELL)
May 24, 08:47 PM	0xd3990526	SELL NO	0.840	$5,926	— (SELL)
May 24, 08:31 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.520	$1,861	—
May 24, 08:28 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.731	$3,264	— (SELL)
May 24, 08:20 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.849	$3,914	— (SELL)
May 24, 08:07 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,686	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

38 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	17	$619.5K	$-290,532
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	1	$488.8K	$-488,757
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	10	$311.0K	+$311.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	15	$302.1K	$-92,778
0xbfca16aa	—	9	$218.3K	+$209.0K
0xb2e7dd21	—	12	$148.2K	+$148.2K
0x71c49500	—	10	$133.4K	+$133.4K
0x4ba34832	—	14	$133.4K	$-133,378
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Other	9	$110.9K	$-59,527
0xd3990526	—	17	$92.9K	$-64,180
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Other	12	$76.4K	+$76.4K
0xbeab8314	—	7	$64.0K	$-32,972
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	7	$63.4K	$-20,503
0xd3026827	—	6	$62.7K	$-5,454
0x8b369e10	—	4	$47.6K	$-26,355
0x366f8964	—	2	$44.9K	$-10,855
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Other	6	$34.1K	+$34.1K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Finance	5	$32.2K	$-27,380
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$29.5K	$-29,527
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	1	$28.4K	$-28,350
0x4dec0ddb	—	2	$27.6K	$-23,628
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	4	$27.3K	$-27,263
0x6114a8a3	—	4	$20.0K	$-20,023
0xb7dd41c1	—	3	$19.5K	$-1,948
0x83831604	—	1	$18.9K	$-18,877
0xf526b2fb	—	3	$16.4K	$-9,588
0x1eeb9106	—	1	$16.1K	$-16,092
0xa96e7118	—	1	$15.0K	$-14,981
0xe02033ce	—	3	$11.5K	$-8,979
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	2	$10.6K	$-10,630

Showing top 30 by volume.