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AdrianCronauer

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf9c1…39e2 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
450
lifetime
PnL per $
-16%
historical realized
Win rate
65.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$8.21M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 450 resolved trades · -16% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
200
capped at 200
Distinct markets
38
Volume (90d)
$3.26M
avg $16.3K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.35M / $1.91M
net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
May 31, 03:08 PMIran closes its airspace by May 31?SELL NO0.967$9,667— (SELL)
May 31, 03:07 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.995$1,468— (SELL)
May 31, 03:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.986$4,551— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.399$1,490— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?SELL NO0.352$1,738— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.665$3,293— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.279$1,397— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?SELL NO0.198$2,977— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.403$3,822— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.485$2,680— (SELL)
May 31, 03:06 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.987$4,555Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:05 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?SELL NO0.378$1,774— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?SELL NO0.579$8,856— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.816$7,246— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.489$2,997— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?SELL NO0.999$15.0K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?SELL NO0.788$8,160— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?SELL NO0.591$4,828— (SELL)
May 31, 03:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.986$19.2K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?SELL NO0.917$18.9K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.548$2,249— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.589$3,501— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.647$4,794— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.684$9,479— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.966$25.6K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL NO0.810$28.3K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?SELL NO0.880$27.9K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.980$29.9K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.361$5,138— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.647$6,908— (SELL)
May 31, 03:04 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.817$14.5K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.952$37.0K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.152$3,150— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.140$7,263— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.101$11.7K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.163$5,200— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.684$12.6K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.646$3,784— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.706$25.6K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?SELL NO0.399$13.5K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?SELL NO0.762$10.8K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.166$10.0K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.045$1,090— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.540$3,524— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL NO0.972$29.5K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.956$45.6K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.434$6,432— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.869$28.0K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.654$7,409— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.106$2,402— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.412$14.2K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.895$15.3K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?SELL NO0.892$59.3K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?SELL NO0.915$112.1K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.986$201.6K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.989$178.7K— (SELL)
May 31, 03:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.997$488.8K— (SELL)
May 31, 02:47 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.840$2,412Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:44 PMIran closes its airspace by May 31?BUY NO0.984$8,774Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:42 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.987$10.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:41 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?BUY NO0.985$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.984$84.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:45 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.969$22.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:02 AMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.969$4,847Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:47 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.890$4,450Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:28 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.967$38.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:32 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.850$17.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:31 AMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY NO0.990$17.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:28 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.960$19.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:28 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.950$19.0K— (SELL)
May 30, 09:24 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.974$5,701Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:12 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.994$1,148Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:02 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.990$37.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:12 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.968$8,661Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:02 PMIran closes its airspace by May 31?SELL YES0.059$1,056— (SELL)
May 29, 10:57 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.974$26.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:55 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.974$10.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:06 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.930$24.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:01 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.870$2,652Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:56 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.900$19.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:42 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.880$5,309Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:42 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.880$4,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.749$3,189Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:34 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.354$1,348Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 03:25 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.640$7,011Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:20 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.890$4,450Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:19 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.880$2,695Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:03 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.765$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:36 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.910$7,280Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:19 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.990$9,900Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:19 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.920$4,600Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:24 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.640$4,753Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:06 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.990$5,635Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:52 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.900$1,128Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:34 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.975$7,710Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:32 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.630$6,907Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:31 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.920$16.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:20 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.968$1,269Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:10 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?BUY NO0.970$4,078Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:08 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?BUY NO0.780$2,125Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:01 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.970$9,353Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:56 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.962$7,668Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:48 PMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY NO0.935$1,980Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:13 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.919$33.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:45 PMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY NO0.979$5,244Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:06 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.908$8,176Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:01 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.850$4,719Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:44 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.949$30.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:40 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.650$7,951Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:36 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.938$41.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:10 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?BUY NO0.940$9,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:48 AMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY NO0.940$1,264Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:34 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?BUY NO0.680$3,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:17 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.960$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:03 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.990$41.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 07:33 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.876$4,499— (SELL)
May 27, 05:33 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.970$77.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:51 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.971$6,521Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:12 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.670$1,005Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:09 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.850$6,793Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:57 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.821$1,659— (SELL)
May 27, 03:43 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.760$12.6K— (SELL)
May 27, 03:42 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.519$1,303
May 27, 03:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.760$4,483— (SELL)
May 27, 03:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.760$4,781— (SELL)
May 27, 03:15 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.860$9,460Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:46 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.910$1,127Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?SELL NO0.930$4,650— (SELL)
May 27, 08:44 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.780$7,672— (SELL)
May 27, 08:44 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.580$1,896— (SELL)
May 27, 08:37 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.930$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.910$9,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:42 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.906$1,027— (SELL)
May 27, 01:56 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.888$8,885Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:06 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.992$19.8K— (SELL)
May 26, 07:01 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.904$3,425— (SELL)
May 26, 07:00 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.975$57.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:59 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.992$59.5K— (SELL)
May 26, 06:38 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.982$98.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:20 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.660$1,191Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:00 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.980$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:59 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.980$56.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:58 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?BUY NO0.857$6,240Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:54 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.899$58.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:52 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.977$4,886Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:47 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.979$19.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.977$49.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:30 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.970$7,854Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:05 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.930$4,650Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:28 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.900$7,200Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:15 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.850$2,643— (SELL)
May 26, 12:05 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.901$1,297— (SELL)
May 25, 10:13 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.978$8,583Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:13 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.730$6,489— (SELL)
May 25, 08:37 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.979$2,669Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 07:14 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.987$3,956— (SELL)
May 25, 07:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.630$2,519— (SELL)
May 25, 07:00 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.987$4,153— (SELL)
May 25, 06:45 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.988$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:40 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.986$3,357Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:27 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.750$6,000— (SELL)
May 25, 05:41 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.990$4,950— (SELL)
May 25, 05:40 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.972$16.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:39 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.990$4,950— (SELL)
May 25, 05:24 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.957$5,103Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:09 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.950$5,584Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:09 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.838$4,695— (SELL)
May 25, 03:42 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.840$1,294Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:34 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.985$4,925— (SELL)
May 25, 03:30 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.938$4,344Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.870$1,295Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:25 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.933$2,800Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:23 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?SELL YES0.992$5,239— (SELL)
May 25, 03:22 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.924$2,772Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:17 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.984$4,920— (SELL)
May 25, 03:09 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.985$4,925— (SELL)
May 25, 03:07 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.934$2,366Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:07 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.985$4,925— (SELL)
May 25, 03:02 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?SELL YES0.994$2,223— (SELL)
May 25, 03:01 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.985$4,925— (SELL)
May 25, 11:05 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?BUY NO0.960$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:03 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?BUY NO0.890$2,670Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:45 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?SELL YES0.998$29.5K— (SELL)
May 25, 08:56 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.882$1,198— (SELL)
May 25, 03:32 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?BUY YES0.950$4,750Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:25 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?SELL YES0.999$16.1K— (SELL)
May 25, 02:12 AMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?BUY NO0.848$4,655Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:36 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.864$5,993— (SELL)
May 25, 01:05 AMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.917$5,843— (SELL)
May 25, 12:50 AMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY NO0.947$6,106Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.910$8,092Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.910$13.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:08 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.881$1,531— (SELL)
May 24, 11:40 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?BUY YES0.954$2,802Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:53 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.850$1,700— (SELL)
May 24, 08:47 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.840$5,926— (SELL)
May 24, 08:31 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.520$1,861
May 24, 08:28 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.731$3,264— (SELL)
May 24, 08:20 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?SELL NO0.849$3,914— (SELL)
May 24, 08:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.900$1,686Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

38 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other17$619.5K$-290,532
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech1$488.8K$-488,757
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other10$311.0K+$311.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Tech15$302.1K$-92,778
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Other9$218.3K+$209.0K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?Other12$148.2K+$148.2K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?Other10$133.4K+$133.4K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Tech14$133.4K$-133,378
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Other9$110.9K$-59,527
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Finance17$92.9K$-64,180
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?Other12$76.4K+$76.4K
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Other7$64.0K$-32,972
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech7$63.4K$-20,503
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Tech6$62.7K$-5,454
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics4$47.6K$-26,355
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Other2$44.9K$-10,855
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?Other6$34.1K+$34.1K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Finance5$32.2K$-27,380
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$29.5K$-29,527
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other1$28.4K$-28,350
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Tech2$27.6K$-23,628
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other4$27.3K$-27,263
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other4$20.0K$-20,023
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Tech3$19.5K$-1,948
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?Other1$18.9K$-18,877
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?Other3$16.4K$-9,588
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Other1$16.1K$-16,092
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Other1$15.0K$-14,981
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Tech3$11.5K$-8,979
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Other2$10.6K$-10,630

Showing top 30 by volume.