cripes3

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8454…331a with our methodology badges per row.

0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-33%

historical realized

Win rate

55.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$125.9K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 29 resolved trades · -33% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$339.5K

avg $4,191 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$115.8K / $223.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 81 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 18, 07:24 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.730	$2,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:16 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.975	$1,815	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:33 AM	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?	SELL NO	0.976	$1,952	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 04:11 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	BUY NO	0.440	$1,320	—
Jun 28, 05:46 AM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.996	$6,972	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 05:43 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,990	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:59 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,495	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 07:12 AM	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.414	$1,141	—
Jun 26, 03:58 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL NO	0.980	$3,959	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 03:52 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL NO	0.880	$4,400	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 02:01 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.530	$2,650	—
Jun 26, 02:00 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.540	$8,100	—
Jun 24, 06:01 AM	Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.968	$1,258	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:53 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	SELL NO	0.905	$4,524	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:37 AM	0x16608c4f	BUY NO	0.880	$1,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:53 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.890	$2,819	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 09:06 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.931	$3,282	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:09 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$10.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:16 AM	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.865	$6,986	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:39 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,581	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 04:02 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$4,980	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 03:48 PM	Will Puck be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII?	SELL NO	0.965	$1,930	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:05 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.995	$2,985	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:09 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:31 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:17 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:28 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$29.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:01 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$6,473	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.451	$1,054	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 11:59 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.610	$3,359	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:01 AM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	SELL NO	0.673	$1,217	— (SELL)
May 31, 02:50 PM	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,963	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:14 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY NO	0.418	$1,109	—
May 28, 07:14 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.994	$4,771	— (SELL)
May 28, 06:59 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.869	$1,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:58 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.866	$1,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:38 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY NO	0.410	$1,013	—
May 26, 12:03 AM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.988	$2,792	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:02 AM	0x1db0aa49	SELL NO	0.994	$1,435	— (SELL)
May 25, 10:19 PM	0x5072d0bf	SELL YES	0.982	$2,947	— (SELL)
May 25, 10:03 PM	0xa743ce4a	BUY YES	0.893	$1,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:57 PM	0xa743ce4a	BUY YES	0.884	$1,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:59 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.999	$8,991	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:39 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,755	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:41 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.999	$5,994	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:09 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.998	$1,081	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:54 AM	0x79e7d16f	SELL NO	0.996	$1,394	— (SELL)
May 24, 07:48 PM	0x828aaec4	SELL NO	0.976	$6,396	— (SELL)
May 23, 03:02 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:02 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:44 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$4,262	— (SELL)
May 23, 01:36 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.996	$19.9K	— (SELL)
May 23, 12:13 PM	0xb7dd41c1	SELL NO	0.471	$2,005	— (SELL)
May 23, 11:39 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.997	$13.0K	— (SELL)
May 23, 12:52 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	SELL YES	0.997	$2,203	— (SELL)
May 23, 12:18 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	SELL YES	0.997	$3,988	— (SELL)
May 21, 06:30 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,083	— (SELL)
May 21, 11:20 AM	0x79e7d16f	SELL NO	0.991	$5,965	— (SELL)
May 21, 01:39 AM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$8,200	— (SELL)
May 20, 03:04 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.989	$3,858	— (SELL)
May 20, 02:25 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL NO	0.942	$4,710	— (SELL)
May 20, 01:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$3,628	— (SELL)
May 19, 11:19 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$3,766	— (SELL)
May 19, 09:31 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.810	$1,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 12:56 PM	0x792f930b	BUY NO	0.979	$1,224	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 12:10 PM	0x52ed6976	BUY NO	0.975	$3,188	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 05:56 PM	0x5e9cb029	BUY NO	0.930	$6,531	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:48 AM	0x79e7d16f	SELL NO	0.992	$2,405	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:37 AM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.999	$2,498	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:14 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
May 14, 11:23 PM	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.260	$1,266	Cheap band — no rep
May 14, 06:01 PM	0x2d2097c0	BUY YES	0.510	$1,020	—
May 14, 05:59 PM	0x2d2097c0	BUY YES	0.490	$1,470	—
May 13, 01:16 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.939	$4,695	— (SELL)
May 11, 08:04 PM	0x5e5482b1	SELL NO	0.998	$11.8K	— (SELL)
May 11, 07:32 PM	0x5e5482b1	BUY NO	0.909	$4,563	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:52 AM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 09:34 PM	0xc5331256	SELL NO	0.988	$3,953	— (SELL)
May 8, 09:26 PM	0x1db02ba5	SELL NO	0.822	$3,716	— (SELL)
May 8, 10:04 AM	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	SELL NO	0.928	$1,021	— (SELL)

Markets active in

46 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	10	$71.6K	+$33.9K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	5	$47.1K	$-27,163
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Other	4	$19.1K	+$2,391
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	4	$18.8K	$-18,822
0x5e5482b1	—	2	$16.3K	$-7,213
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	3	$15.6K	$-15,595
0x2cd24d17	—	3	$13.1K	$-6,508
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	2	$13.0K	$-8,600
0x79e7d16f	—	3	$9,765	$-9,765
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	Politics	2	$8,949	$-5,023
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	2	$6,693	$-6,693
0x5e9cb029	—	1	$6,531	+$6,531
0x828aaec4	—	1	$6,396	$-6,396
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Other	2	$6,191	$-6,191
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Tech	2	$5,051	+$2,884
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	1	$4,990	$-4,990
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	1	$4,771	$-4,771
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Other	1	$4,710	$-4,710
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Other	1	$4,524	$-4,524
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Other	2	$4,135	$-855
0xc5331256	—	1	$3,953	$-3,953
0x789c947a	—	1	$3,858	$-3,858
0x1db02ba5	—	1	$3,716	$-3,716
0x52ed6976	—	1	$3,188	+$3,188
0x5072d0bf	—	1	$2,947	$-2,947
0xa1d97efb	—	1	$2,792	$-2,792
0xffe381a8	—	1	$2,498	$-2,497
0x2d2097c0	—	2	$2,490	+$2,490
0xa743ce4a	—	2	$2,225	+$2,225
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	2	$2,122	+$2,122

Showing top 30 by volume.