| Jul 20, 02:13 PM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.375 | $3,472 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 12:38 PM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $4,620 | —— |
| Jul 15, 06:48 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.677 | $18.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 02:39 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 05:14 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $7,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:18 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:44 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.702 | $4,246 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 05:25 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.703 | $4,651 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 04:02 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,044 | —— |
| Jun 30, 10:51 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,390 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 08:42 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $5,697 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 30, 06:30 AM | Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | BUY YES | 0.161 | $3,232 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 29, 04:03 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.551 | $2,308 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 29, 02:44 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.639 | $5,038 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 07:04 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.246 | $3,891 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 29, 06:43 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $2,165 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 28, 08:29 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $13.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 12:16 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 07:02 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.105 | $8,003 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 26, 05:12 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.386 | $4,538 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 03:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.461 | $5,521 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 03:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.147 | $1,031 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 03:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL YES | 0.487 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 03:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.157 | $2,140 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 07:23 AM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $2,313 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 24, 03:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.029 | $2,155 | —— |
| Jun 24, 03:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.265 | $16.8K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 24, 01:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.249 | $31.8K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 23, 03:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $3,059 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 22, 04:49 PM | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $3,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 21, 04:42 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.145 | $16.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 21, 01:21 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 09:18 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.199 | $14.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 09:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $8,094 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.177 | $11.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 03:45 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $69.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $10.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 01:15 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,122 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 01:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.295 | $6,082 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 12:40 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $4,112 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 03:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,995 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 12:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $1,534 | —— |
| May 18, 07:37 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $4,243 | —— |
| May 15, 05:25 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.688 | $41.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:17 PM | 0xe0b6f4d4 | BUY NO | 0.650 | $9,562 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 04:31 PM | 0x634ac8f3 | BUY YES | 0.986 | $1,663 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:17 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.479 | $3,011 | —— |
| May 12, 02:15 PM | 0xe0b6f4d4 | BUY NO | 0.685 | $22.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:34 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.837 | $4,774 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 11:12 AM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY YES | 0.019 | $1,948 | —— |
| May 12, 08:47 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.702 | $32.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:12 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY YES | 0.115 | $1,455 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 06:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.207 | $6,722 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 9, 11:17 AM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY YES | 0.127 | $2,454 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |