| Jun 12, 09:18 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.199 | $14.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 09:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $8,094 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.177 | $11.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 03:45 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $69.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $10.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,122 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 01:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.295 | $6,082 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 12:40 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.240 | $4,112 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 03:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,995 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 12:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $1,534 | —— |
| May 18, 07:37 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $4,243 | —— |
| May 15, 05:25 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.688 | $41.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:17 PM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $9,562 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 04:31 PM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $1,663 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:17 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.479 | $3,011 | —— |
| May 12, 02:15 PM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.685 | $22.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:34 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.837 | $4,774 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 11:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.019 | $1,948 | —— |
| May 12, 08:47 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.702 | $32.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $1,455 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 06:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.207 | $6,722 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 9, 11:17 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.127 | $2,454 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 03:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.281 | $1,870 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 03:29 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY YES | 0.241 | $1,001 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 02:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $16.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 10:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.154 | $19.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 08:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.282 | $9,538 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 6, 08:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.091 | $4,387 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 1, 08:57 AM | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.745 | $2,290 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:05 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $17.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 08:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $5,920 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 01:22 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $2,914 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 05:14 PM | 0xc781e58a | BUY YES | 0.510 | $15.3K | —— |
| Apr 18, 03:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $19.4K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 18, 08:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $13.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 05:23 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.396 | $13.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 05:47 PM | 0xc781e58a | BUY YES | 0.519 | $5,437 | —— |
| Apr 17, 05:47 PM | 0xc781e58a | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,287 | —— |
| Apr 16, 03:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $3,522 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 16, 02:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $4,513 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 16, 01:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $1,619 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 16, 01:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $3,537 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 13, 05:41 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.993 | $29.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 09:22 AM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.574 | $1,533 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 02:54 PM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $4,830 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 02:54 PM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.633 | $2,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:13 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.928 | $13.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:49 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.657 | $1,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:48 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.600 | $2,950 | —— |
| Apr 7, 09:13 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.220 | $2,078 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 04:23 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.119 | $5,944 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 3, 03:44 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.160 | $1,644 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 03:26 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.140 | $4,200 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 03:23 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.150 | $1,345 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 03:22 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.165 | $6,781 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 08:17 PM | 0xf3057939 | BUY NO | 0.981 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 03:29 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.998 | $99.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 12:38 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.247 | $7,081 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 30, 11:29 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.300 | $15.0K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 26, 09:06 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.860 | $14.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 09:05 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.860 | $21.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 10:33 AM | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.369 | $3,187 | — (SELL) |