| Jun 13, 02:54 PM | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:53 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $9,107 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 06:30 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $1,974 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:26 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,851 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:26 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.096 | $1,974 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:17 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $1,772 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:15 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.171 | $2,455 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:10 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,851 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:09 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $1,181 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:09 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.095 | $3,059 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 06:07 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,790 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 11:51 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.103 | $1,129 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 11:51 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,230 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 11:50 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.167 | $5,138 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 11:50 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.112 | $3,452 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 11:50 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.094 | $2,899 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:26 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $1,768 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:25 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $1,768 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:24 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.112 | $1,151 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:07 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.102 | $2,108 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:06 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.914 | $2,740 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:05 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.865 | $5,017 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $27.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:47 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:45 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $27.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:43 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:42 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.947 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $46.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:19 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.947 | $59.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:21 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.173 | $3,548 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:14 AM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $4,731 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:10 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,181 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 12:10 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,305 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 12:10 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $4,613 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 12:09 PM | Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $7,313 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:06 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $5,503 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 12:06 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.169 | $3,356 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 12:05 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.088 | $9,218 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:02 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.181 | $2,015 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 08:01 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $54.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:57 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $16.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 04:56 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.185 | $1,489 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 04:55 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.169 | $1,517 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:56 AM | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.034 | $1,031 | —— |
| May 17, 07:56 AM | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.034 | $4,980 | —— |
| May 17, 07:56 AM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $10.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:55 AM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.082 | $2,218 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:54 AM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $24.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:54 AM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.091 | $6,991 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:52 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.177 | $2,940 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:51 AM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.166 | $13.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 07:51 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $35.5K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 11:10 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.764 | $6,549 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 11:09 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $56.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:09 AM | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $34.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:08 AM | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $25.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:08 AM | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $31.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:08 AM | Will France win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $34.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:07 AM | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $49.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:06 AM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | SELL NO | 0.945 | $29.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 04:28 PM | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $18.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 04:10 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.917 | $32.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:43 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $8,805 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:41 PM | Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,877 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 05:28 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.903 | $38.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:47 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:58 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $16.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:33 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.884 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:32 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.882 | $33.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $21.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $1,449 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:01 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:01 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.915 | $23.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:39 PM | Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,486 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:37 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $6,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:28 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.872 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.948 | $22.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $27.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:22 PM | Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $2,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:21 PM | Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,104 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 07:29 AM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.938 | $4,122 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:23 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $194.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:35 PM | Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:31 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,463 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:31 PM | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:29 PM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $16.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:29 PM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.923 | $1,469 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 01:45 PM | James Comey arrested by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $4,539 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 08:33 AM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.883 | $9,132 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 08:31 AM | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $4,082 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 09:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $298.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 10:46 AM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.889 | $1,474 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 01:05 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $30.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 07:35 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $16.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 06:40 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $556.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 06:36 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 06:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $22.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 02:45 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $40.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:33 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $21.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 02:32 PM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL YES | 0.851 | $70.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:13 AM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.938 | $26.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:03 AM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $19.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:02 AM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $6,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:55 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.859 | $13.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:29 AM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,746 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:28 AM | 0x2d859e9b | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:28 AM | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $1,630 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:24 AM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $42.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:23 AM | US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $2,176 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 10:19 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $5,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 08:50 AM | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:15 AM | Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $6,876 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 04:57 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.897 | $2,425 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:16 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 11:58 AM | 0xfcde02af | SELL YES | 0.670 | $1,105 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 11:57 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $1,071 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 11:57 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $6,571 | — (SELL) |