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GoriIIa

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfffa…864b with our methodology badges per row.

0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
97
lifetime
PnL per $
+3%
historical realized
Win rate
77.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.17M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 97 resolved trades · 3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
132
Distinct markets
66
Volume (90d)
$1.92M
avg $14.5K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.65M / $272.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 132 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 09:14 AMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.926$12.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:14 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.930$21.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:13 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.700$1,956Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:48 AMWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?BUY YES0.979$9,169Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:44 AMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.850$30.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:43 AMWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.905$92.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:43 AMWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$33.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:34 AMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY NO0.879$19.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:32 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.780$26.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:11 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.953$13.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:08 PMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?SELL NO0.730$2,190— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:06 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.806$20.1K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 01:44 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.937$24.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:53 AMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.930$12.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:00 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.904$7,019Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:00 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.896$2,427Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:28 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.863$6,496Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:17 PMWill Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY NO0.899$3,908Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:13 PMWill Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY NO0.971$22.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:11 PMWill Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY NO0.898$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:11 PMWill Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY NO0.896$5,610Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 05:26 PMWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?BUY NO0.930$3,556Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:55 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?SELL NO0.710$24.9K— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:30 PMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.930$18.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:29 PMWill Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.966$20.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:05 AMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.920$13.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:04 AMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.882$1,379Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:49 AMWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY NO0.860$1,634Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:11 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.941$13.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:08 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.898$2,657Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 04:02 PMWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?BUY NO0.963$15.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 04:02 PMWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?BUY NO0.963$6,983Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 04:00 PM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?BUY NO0.969$15.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:35 PMWill Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.950$23.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:01 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.979$53.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:16 PMWill Austria win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.983$2,347Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:14 PMWill Algeria win on 2026-07-02?SELL NO0.781$15.7K— (SELL)
Jul 2, 08:00 PMWill Austria win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.985$15.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:27 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.968$14.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:44 AMWill Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.960$20.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:43 AMWill Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.955$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:32 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY NO0.970$22.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:24 PMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.968$20.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:38 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.780$2,356Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:15 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?BUY NO0.540$1,095
Jun 30, 10:05 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?BUY NO0.940$5,153Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:04 AMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY NO0.850$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:02 AMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.950$66.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:43 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.200$35.9K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:42 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?SELL NO0.710$3,550— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:43 PMWill Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.977$21.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 12:52 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.989$97.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 11:26 AMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.055$1,784— (SELL)
Jun 28, 08:13 AMWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.930$8,516Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:10 AMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?BUY NO0.850$17.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 07:16 AMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.036$7,411— (SELL)
Jun 26, 09:35 AMWill Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.975$5,346Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:33 AMWill Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.970$2,788Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:33 AMWill Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.963$1,017Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 05:10 PMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-23?BUY YES0.970$9,991Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:29 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.940$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:24 PMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY NO0.850$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:20 PMWill South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.200$1,025Cheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 01:19 PMWill Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.720$3,956Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:18 PMWill Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.965$18.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:52 PMWill USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.763$6,114— (SELL)
Jun 21, 10:55 AM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?BUY NO0.870$9,760Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:54 PMWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?BUY NO0.941$11.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:53 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.962$9,107— (SELL)
Jun 3, 06:30 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.096$1,974Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:26 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.090$1,851Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:26 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.096$1,974Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:17 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.115$1,772Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:15 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.171$2,455Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:10 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.090$1,851Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:09 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.115$1,181Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:09 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.095$3,059Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 06:07 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.160$2,790Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 11:51 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.103$1,129Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 11:51 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$5,230Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 11:50 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.167$5,138Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 11:50 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.112$3,452Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 11:50 AMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.094$2,899Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 09:26 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.086$1,768Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 09:25 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.086$1,768Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 09:24 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.112$1,151Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 09:07 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.102$2,108Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 09:06 AM0x09148e8aSELL NO0.914$2,740— (SELL)
May 29, 09:05 AM0xbeab8314SELL NO0.865$5,017— (SELL)
May 29, 09:04 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.900$27.0K— (SELL)
May 28, 04:47 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.944$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:45 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$27.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:43 AM0xbeab8314BUY NO0.910$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:42 AM0x09148e8aBUY NO0.947$14.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:22 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.970$46.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:21 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.967$12.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:19 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.947$59.7K— (SELL)
May 23, 08:21 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.173$3,548Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 08:14 AMCuban regime falls in 2026?SELL NO0.750$4,731— (SELL)
May 22, 12:10 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$1,181Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 12:10 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$1,305Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 12:10 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.180$4,613Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 12:09 PM0x78f5630bSELL NO0.999$7,313— (SELL)
May 22, 12:06 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.180$5,503Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 12:06 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.169$3,356Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 12:05 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.088$9,218— (SELL)
May 19, 08:02 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.181$2,015Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 08:01 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.937$54.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 04:57 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$16.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 17, 04:56 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.185$1,489Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 04:55 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.169$1,517Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:56 AMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.034$1,031
May 17, 07:56 AMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.034$4,980
May 17, 07:56 AMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.052$10.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:55 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.082$2,218Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:54 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.086$24.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:54 AMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.091$6,991Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:52 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.177$2,940Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:51 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.166$13.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 17, 07:51 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.114$35.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 16, 11:10 PMCuban regime falls in 2026?BUY NO0.764$6,549Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:09 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.830$56.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:09 AM0x07db61e5BUY NO0.996$34.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:08 AM0xda3350bcBUY NO0.995$25.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:08 AM0xab4e2dc2BUY NO0.995$31.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:08 AM0xac5a968cBUY NO0.994$34.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:07 AM0xff081c52BUY NO0.963$49.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:06 AMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?SELL NO0.945$29.5K— (SELL)
May 13, 04:28 PM0x28872d7dBUY NO0.981$18.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 04:10 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.917$32.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:43 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.934$8,805Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:41 PM0x5a082e3cBUY NO0.950$4,877Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

66 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other9$177.1K+$177.1K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Other6$176.6K+$39.1K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Tech2$126.1K+$126.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech2$108.7K+$108.7K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other7$87.6K$-24,503
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other2$59.1K+$59.1K
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Other3$57.4K+$7,567
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other1$56.9K+$56.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other2$54.6K+$600
0xff081c521$49.1K+$49.1K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech9$48.2K+$48.2K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other5$43.0K+$43.0K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other8$35.4K+$16.9K
0x07db61e51$34.4K+$34.4K
0xac5a968c1$34.3K+$34.3K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Other2$32.2K+$32.2K
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$31.4K+$31.4K
0xab4e2dc21$31.4K+$31.4K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics1$30.0K+$30.0K
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Other1$29.5K$-29,545
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$28.0K+$28.0K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Other2$25.3K+$25.3K
0xda3350bc1$25.3K+$25.3K
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Other3$24.6K+$24.6K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$24.4K+$24.4K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other7$24.2K+$24.2K
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$23.8K+$23.8K
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Other2$22.9K+$22.9K
Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Other1$22.8K+$22.8K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Other1$22.5K+$22.5K

Showing top 30 by volume.