| Jul 14, 06:11 PM | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? | BUY YES | 0.736 | $1,338 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 04:29 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $6,356 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 12, 02:12 PM | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,149 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 11:18 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $8,265 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 09:58 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.795 | $4,917 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 01:11 PM | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,073 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 07:20 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,610 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 03:29 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 10:52 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.955 | $3,820 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 07:15 AM | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.503 | $2,591 | —— |
| Jun 25, 01:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.798 | $3,988 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:30 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.530 | $5,237 | —— |
| Jun 13, 02:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $1,112 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:15 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.556 | $5,560 | —— |
| Jun 13, 02:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.261 | $1,303 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 02:10 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.509 | $2,487 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:59 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.471 | $2,144 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 05:50 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.440 | $2,860 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $2,134 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:58 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $16.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.508 | $3,673 | —— |
| Jun 11, 01:01 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,001 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:06 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 11:43 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.832 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:56 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,843 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:01 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $71.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:48 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.526 | $2,632 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:10 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.402 | $2,265 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 06:59 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,105 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:57 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.565 | $1,711 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 06:56 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.458 | $7,794 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 05:48 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,972 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 04:29 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.784 | $5,678 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 02:09 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | SELL YES | 0.670 | $1,810 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 12:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.060 | $4,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 03:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $3,250 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 04:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:25 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,147 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 02:44 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $2,411 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:08 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $29.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 05:20 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,852 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:05 AM | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.854 | $1,922 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:21 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.870 | $44.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $5,770 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 10:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $45.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:28 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.181 | $1,210 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:42 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.238 | $1,999 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:36 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.230 | $1,272 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 01:01 AM | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $1,353 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:21 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.187 | $2,754 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 03:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $7,209 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:48 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL YES | 0.205 | $6,961 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 06:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $1,600 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:17 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.220 | $3,988 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 09:25 PM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $1,160 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 09:10 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.329 | $8,230 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $3,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,950 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:30 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.512 | $4,605 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:33 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.280 | $3,995 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 06:43 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.106 | $1,382 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,056 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 02:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $3,812 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 01:09 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.359 | $11.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 12:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $5,520 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 11:31 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.510 | $1,530 | —— |
| May 27, 10:48 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.503 | $3,519 | —— |
| May 26, 06:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,890 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 10:18 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.217 | $1,063 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 10:00 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.223 | $1,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 09:49 PM | 0xbeab8314 | SELL YES | 0.205 | $1,035 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,400 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 06:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $3,625 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 06:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $9,176 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $1,486 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $2,210 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:50 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.895 | $1,540 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:42 PM | 0x83831604 | SELL NO | 0.702 | $1,329 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,170 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,050 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 09:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,096 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 08:57 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.973 | $6,437 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $3,243 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:57 AM | 0xc792f882 | SELL NO | 0.830 | $4,149 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,009 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.326 | $1,393 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 04:56 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.857 | $5,671 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,967 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 10:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.112 | $1,052 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,160 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.244 | $9,749 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:18 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | SELL YES | 0.406 | $2,437 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,143 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 02:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.218 | $2,299 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 02:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,586 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 22, 01:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.305 | $1,527 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:22 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.767 | $46.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:14 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | BUY YES | 0.387 | $2,321 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 03:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $3,155 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 06:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $21.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 03:30 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,511 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 03:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,250 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 02:05 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $20.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 12:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 11:37 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $1,550 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 11:36 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $3,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 11:07 AM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,596 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:19 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.699 | $1,121 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 09:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,210 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:24 PM | 0x2f6a5475 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,180 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:19 PM | 0x053f9573 | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,450 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 06:23 PM | 0x053f9573 | BUY YES | 0.600 | $3,000 | —— |
| May 19, 06:22 PM | 0x8de78e42 | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,330 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:05 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.790 | $9,576 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:15 AM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,877 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 07:09 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.620 | $4,671 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:24 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY NO | 0.670 | $4,824 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:21 PM | 0xd3990526 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,440 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 06:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.196 | $6,972 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:55 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL YES | 0.127 | $1,009 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,704 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:52 PM | 0xed0f5596 | BUY NO | 0.871 | $4,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:43 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.227 | $5,745 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 02:36 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.215 | $2,867 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 08:40 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY YES | 0.134 | $2,679 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 03:44 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,755 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 03:16 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,510 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |