65765757

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x2974…9c23 with our methodology badges per row.

0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

263

lifetime

PnL per $

-51%

historical realized

Win rate

39.0%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.19M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 263 resolved trades · -51% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$860.5K

avg $4,303 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$434.0K / $426.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 10:45 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:44 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.950	$3,573	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:04 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:04 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.724	$2,175	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:04 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$4,100	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 03:13 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:26 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,663	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:26 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 08:50 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,512	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:49 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,512	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 08:46 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.815	$1,123	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:45 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 08:43 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 03:49 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.873	$2,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 03:48 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.932	$2,837	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 03:18 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 11:40 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.738	$1,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:38 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,660	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 05:06 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.849	$2,398	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:04 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.848	$2,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:04 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,981	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:47 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.700	$2,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:51 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	BUY YES	0.917	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:50 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$3,117	— (SELL)
May 25, 09:47 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.850	$5,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:46 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.810	$8,100	— (SELL)
May 25, 09:41 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	BUY YES	0.895	$2,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:40 PM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	SELL NO	0.881	$2,993	— (SELL)
May 25, 09:40 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	BUY YES	0.926	$1,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:39 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.740	$1,194	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:38 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.810	$4,050	— (SELL)
May 25, 08:27 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.890	$2,584	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:25 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,654	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:25 AM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,681	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:24 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	BUY YES	0.779	$2,779	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:22 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.830	$4,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:22 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.880	$6,129	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:21 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY YES	0.820	$1,270	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:20 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.997	$19.6K	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:31 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.875	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:31 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.994	$4,970	— (SELL)
May 25, 02:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.995	$2,985	— (SELL)
May 25, 02:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.996	$2,131	— (SELL)
May 25, 02:05 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.840	$8,574	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:03 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.995	$9,950	— (SELL)
May 25, 01:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	BUY YES	0.840	$3,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.989	$3,560	— (SELL)
May 24, 10:49 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.981	$2,442	— (SELL)
May 24, 10:27 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,184	— (SELL)
May 24, 02:02 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.732	$2,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:01 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.821	$2,462	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:44 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.790	$2,409	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:43 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.997	$2,460	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:42 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.780	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:42 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:05 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.790	$4,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:01 AM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	BUY NO	0.832	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.992	$6,944	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:54 AM	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	BUY NO	0.815	$1,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:54 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.992	$2,976	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:45 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.790	$3,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:45 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.992	$3,619	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:43 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.631	$1,804	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:42 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,804	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:41 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.630	$5,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:41 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$5,740	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:40 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.630	$2,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:40 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$2,460	— (SELL)
May 23, 11:50 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	BUY YES	0.790	$1,972	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:50 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.986	$1,972	— (SELL)
May 23, 10:19 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:19 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	SELL YES	0.978	$1,957	— (SELL)
May 23, 12:37 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.890	$3,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 12:36 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.880	$5,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:24 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:12 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.880	$1,865	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 04:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.998	$23.1K	— (SELL)
May 23, 03:42 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	BUY YES	0.880	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:41 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.760	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:40 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.994	$4,970	— (SELL)
May 23, 03:07 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.715	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:06 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.900	$16.9K	— (SELL)
May 23, 02:49 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.692	$1,385	— (SELL)
May 22, 09:35 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.810	$2,814	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:07 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.950	$26.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:06 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.999	$26.9K	— (SELL)
May 22, 04:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:05 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.750	$2,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:04 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:03 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.880	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:02 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.870	$5,292	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:02 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.999	$30.0K	— (SELL)
May 22, 02:56 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:55 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.992	$1,665	— (SELL)
May 22, 02:23 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.860	$4,961	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:22 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.992	$4,960	— (SELL)
May 22, 02:20 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,986	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:20 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.993	$1,986	— (SELL)
May 22, 12:10 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 12:10 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,300	— (SELL)
May 21, 04:21 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.799	$1,254	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:21 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.790	$2,373	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:20 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.780	$2,592	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:19 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.728	$7,278	— (SELL)
May 21, 04:06 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.830	$6,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:06 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.974	$6,819	— (SELL)
May 21, 03:45 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,253	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 03:45 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	SELL NO	0.978	$1,253	— (SELL)
May 20, 06:07 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,266	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:07 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.720	$1,969	— (SELL)
May 20, 06:01 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,173	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:00 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:00 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.719	$2,991	— (SELL)
May 19, 11:51 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.850	$9,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:51 PM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	SELL NO	0.995	$10.2K	— (SELL)
May 19, 11:23 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,063	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:23 PM	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	SELL YES	0.986	$2,063	— (SELL)
May 19, 11:08 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.840	$4,705	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:08 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,613	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:05 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.677	$6,771	— (SELL)
May 19, 11:02 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:01 PM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:44 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$8,160	— (SELL)
May 19, 10:39 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,126	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:36 PM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,753	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:36 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$3,400	— (SELL)
May 19, 10:30 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.830	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:23 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$6,800	— (SELL)
May 19, 10:18 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.860	$6,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:18 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$6,800	— (SELL)
May 19, 10:17 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.816	$6,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:17 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$6,800	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:15 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,665	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:14 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.812	$1,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:14 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.710	$5,680	— (SELL)
May 19, 09:24 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,812	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:29 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,999	— (SELL)
May 17, 09:53 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.840	$3,584	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:52 PM	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,686	— (SELL)
May 17, 01:16 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:14 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:13 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	BUY NO	0.900	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:03 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.952	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:54 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.954	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 02:54 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,990	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:21 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$7,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:21 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$6,979	— (SELL)
May 16, 01:20 AM	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.948	$2,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 01:19 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$2,991	— (SELL)
May 10, 09:00 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,816	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 09:00 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$4,814	— (SELL)
May 10, 08:19 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.844	$1,458	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 08:19 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$2,730	— (SELL)
May 10, 08:18 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 08:17 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$2,995	— (SELL)
May 10, 07:10 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,227	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:08 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,547	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:07 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,814	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:07 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$6,440	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:49 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:49 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.912	$3,649	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:24 PM	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.729	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:24 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$2,760	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:01 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:01 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$3,680	— (SELL)
May 10, 03:47 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,820	— (SELL)
May 10, 02:47 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.710	$5,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:47 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$5,720	— (SELL)
May 10, 02:44 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.710	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:44 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$4,600	— (SELL)
May 7, 04:27 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.800	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 08:00 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.937	$3,630	— (SELL)
May 6, 07:57 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$4,700	— (SELL)
May 5, 11:56 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$4,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 05:41 PM	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-02?	BUY YES	0.890	$2,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 05:41 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.700	$2,100	— (SELL)
May 2, 02:32 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.710	$6,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:14 AM	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	SELL YES	0.952	$2,046	— (SELL)
May 2, 02:56 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,718	— (SELL)
May 1, 02:59 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$7,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 02:59 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.700	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:03 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	BUY NO	0.884	$2,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:03 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.880	$2,200	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 05:02 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	BUY NO	0.874	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:01 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.881	$3,525	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 02:22 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 02:21 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.890	$4,450	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 04:34 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 04:34 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 04:33 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.829	$1,499	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 04:33 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.911	$4,554	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 04:32 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$3,681	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 04:32 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$3,680	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:37 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 04:36 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$2,760	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:35 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.859	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 04:35 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.920	$2,760	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 04:32 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.678	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 04:32 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.777	$14.2K	— (SELL)

Markets active in

43 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	33	$163.8K	$-38,672
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Tech	22	$142.8K	$-6,858
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	14	$86.1K	$-5,043
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	4	$55.5K	$-751
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	13	$47.6K	$-30,841
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Other	12	$37.6K	$-6,275
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Tech	10	$34.1K	+$4,220
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Other	5	$25.8K	+$25.8K
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Other	4	$23.9K	+$23.9K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Other	6	$21.3K	$-15,744
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	2	$18.0K	$-15,758
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	5	$17.5K	$-17,472
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Other	5	$16.3K	+$16.3K
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Other	6	$15.2K	+$15.2K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Other	5	$14.6K	+$14.6K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	1	$14.2K	$-14,160
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Politics	3	$13.2K	$-7,102
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Tech	2	$10.3K	+$10.3K
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	4	$8,202	+$8,202
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Tech	3	$6,988	+$6,988
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	5	$6,769	+$6,769
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	3	$6,416	+$742
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Other	2	$5,523	+$5,523
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Other	2	$5,420	+$5,420
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	3	$5,273	+$5,273
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Other	2	$5,193	$-793
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	2	$4,618	+$4,618
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	2	$4,616	$-1,618
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Other	2	$4,602	+$4,602
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Other	1	$4,400	+$4,400

Showing top 30 by volume.