Vilgefortz

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x3c91…9af7 with our methodology badges per row.

0x3c918a8ef8c379304f744592120cbb4d76149af7·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-48%

historical realized

Win rate

48.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$86.0K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 30 resolved trades · -48% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$277.0K

avg $3,645 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$192.9K / $84.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 76 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 07:56 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.912	$4,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:27 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.895	$1,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:26 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.933	$1,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:16 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	SELL NO	0.966	$2,512	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 06:08 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$3,640	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:18 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.915	$2,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 02:17 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	BUY NO	0.800	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:25 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,829	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:58 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:58 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.860	$1,720	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 01:39 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$4,463	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 01:38 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.860	$4,472	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 06:26 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$5,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:25 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$6,090	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 06:25 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:24 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:19 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$8,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:19 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$8,700	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 06:18 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$8,700	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 03:41 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:41 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 01:51 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$9,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:10 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.959	$3,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:08 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.957	$4,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:20 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$4,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:25 AM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 06:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:42 PM	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY YES	0.211	$2,917	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 23, 03:48 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:43 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$8,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 02:28 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$13.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:58 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,838	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:58 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.996	$2,988	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 04:57 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 04:56 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.996	$4,582	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.994	$1,392	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:27 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:26 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.992	$1,984	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:24 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$8,094	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:24 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.992	$8,134	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:13 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.924	$1,571	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:12 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.992	$1,786	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:06 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:42 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.690	$1,977	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.991	$1,982	— (SELL)
May 31, 06:37 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:37 PM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.999	$1,049	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:18 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:59 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,552	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:08 PM	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY YES	0.156	$1,498	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 02:06 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.980	$1,470	— (SELL)
May 19, 04:37 PM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.957	$2,871	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:43 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.949	$3,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:36 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,676	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:35 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.975	$1,687	— (SELL)
May 14, 05:34 PM	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY NO	0.840	$8,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 05:33 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.975	$8,356	— (SELL)
May 14, 03:41 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.730	$2,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.975	$1,755	— (SELL)
May 14, 03:40 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.730	$1,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:34 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.730	$3,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:07 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.953	$1,906	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 02:31 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.953	$4,193	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:10 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.976	$3,904	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:15 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$4,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:15 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$4,320	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:15 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.720	$5,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:11 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.949	$2,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:10 PM	0x65f204a8	SELL YES	0.999	$2,977	— (SELL)
May 13, 11:20 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.947	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 09:55 AM	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL YES	0.203	$1,351	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:56 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.970	$1,940	— (SELL)
May 10, 06:18 PM	0x65f204a8	BUY YES	0.930	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:17 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.971	$1,942	— (SELL)
May 10, 05:10 PM	0x65f204a8	BUY YES	0.890	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 05:10 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.971	$2,913	— (SELL)

Markets active in

15 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	17	$87.5K	+$28.1K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	11	$50.7K	+$43.4K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	11	$36.4K	$-28,574
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Other	8	$22.2K	+$4,127
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Other	7	$21.2K	+$16.1K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	5	$19.0K	+$19.0K
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	4	$15.2K	+$15.2K
0x65f204a8	—	3	$7,703	+$1,749
0xa1d97efb	—	2	$3,920	+$1,822
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	1	$2,917	+$2,917
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	2	$2,848	+$147
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	2	$2,413	$-370
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	Other	1	$2,000	+$2,000
0xc4c3dbcc	—	1	$1,977	+$1,977
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Other	1	$1,170	+$1,170