| Jun 13, 01:03 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.668 | $2,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.633 | $2,058 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $1,729 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:21 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,435 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:14 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY YES | 0.277 | $3,196 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 05:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.397 | $1,773 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 05:08 AM | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.389 | $1,462 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:11 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.387 | $1,729 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 06:14 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.379 | $4,225 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 06:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.658 | $9,530 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.822 | $7,816 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:12 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $2,087 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,018 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $3,468 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,935 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.798 | $21.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:07 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $1,159 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $8,081 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:09 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.889 | $8,553 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:14 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.166 | $1,903 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:41 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.677 | $2,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.164 | $1,806 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:18 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,627 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,914 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:29 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,100 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 11:02 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:29 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,613 | —— |
| Jun 11, 09:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.705 | $2,695 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:44 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.637 | $3,610 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:40 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:15 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.118 | $9,746 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:40 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $6,014 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:19 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $1,182 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $5,998 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.320 | $6,293 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $2,111 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $6,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 02:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $1,017 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:35 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.439 | $4,342 | —— |
| Jun 11, 12:35 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.649 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:32 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $2,272 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:30 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,556 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:11 AM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,091 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:51 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $55.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:49 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $18.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $1,605 | —— |
| Jun 11, 04:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,778 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $3,501 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.037 | $6,525 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.330 | $5,405 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $2,620 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:33 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $7,107 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.169 | $10.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 03:28 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.670 | $1,909 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:26 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.708 | $4,817 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:23 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:05 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,229 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:01 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $2,348 | —— |
| Jun 11, 01:01 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.649 | $6,132 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:00 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $7,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,433 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.669 | $1,646 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:47 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,010 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 06:16 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY NO | 0.855 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,223 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $2,304 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $2,333 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,934 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 04:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $2,222 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $2,761 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 09:29 AM | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $2,558 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:42 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,277 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 05:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $22.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 05:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,936 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 09:58 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,707 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 01:50 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.199 | $3,036 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 10:39 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.946 | $3,153 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $3,917 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.634 | $2,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,070 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:20 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.451 | $4,660 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.574 | $5,555 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $8,611 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 09:53 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,535 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 05:45 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,614 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:36 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $3,208 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:11 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:54 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $7,503 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.005 | $2,269 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 11:31 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,403 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 07:33 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $5,236 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:27 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $2,970 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 04:19 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $3,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:08 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,403 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 31, 02:04 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,389 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 02:02 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,529 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:02 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 12:18 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $8,428 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:49 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $3,636 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $51.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.061 | $15.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $4,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.126 | $6,602 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.140 | $1,253 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:16 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.241 | $1,320 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:11 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.754 | $2,604 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.752 | $3,255 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.682 | $2,157 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $3,613 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.230 | $3,897 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $2,392 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 03:23 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.298 | $5,551 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 11:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,369 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 10:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $5,922 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:38 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.165 | $1,108 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 01:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.796 | $26.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 01:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $44.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $6,858 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:09 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.717 | $2,013 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,966 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,049 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:03 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.924 | $2,052 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:57 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.118 | $1,021 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,543 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $8,965 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $35.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 05:01 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $4,391 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $67.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $21.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $2,720 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $2,941 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:06 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.161 | $2,134 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $7,893 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:47 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.658 | $1,225 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:05 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $97.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:31 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.795 | $5,098 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:17 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.779 | $8,261 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 11:17 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.794 | $14.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 05:26 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,773 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:39 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.905 | $5,362 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.929 | $2,391 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $23.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.050 | $9,713 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 02:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.066 | $8,051 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:27 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.170 | $1,082 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 10:58 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $38.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:57 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | BUY NO | 0.807 | $1,655 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:52 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.775 | $7,072 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:51 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.625 | $3,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:51 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.641 | $1,229 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:50 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.544 | $12.0K | —— |
| May 25, 09:50 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.693 | $5,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:17 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.267 | $5,318 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:39 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,424 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 07:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,491 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.165 | $22.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 03:16 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $1,284 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.098 | $24.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 06:30 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.855 | $6,858 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:19 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,856 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:18 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,728 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:13 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $3,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:56 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,497 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:56 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,365 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:44 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $45.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:08 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.636 | $9,519 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:07 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.844 | $8,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $15.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 10:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | SELL NO | 0.895 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 10:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.242 | $62.7K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 10:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.111 | $19.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 08:47 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.499 | $2,837 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:46 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.816 | $4,886 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:21 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,362 | —— |
| May 24, 05:26 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,272 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 05:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $4,870 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:06 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:15 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:02 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.187 | $1,423 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.452 | $5,170 | —— |
| May 24, 02:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.758 | $1,873 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:56 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.538 | $1,277 | —— |
| May 24, 09:50 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $9,029 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 08:43 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.232 | $2,656 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,587 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 05:21 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $1,458 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:56 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.488 | $4,296 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:41 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.807 | $1,365 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:37 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.734 | $1,908 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:55 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $5,333 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:54 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.762 | $7,298 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:39 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.118 | $1,776 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 03:38 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.217 | $3,161 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:50 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $3,056 | —— |