| Jul 20, 08:15 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $2,460 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 12:07 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,143 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 01:59 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,333 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 10:33 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,897 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 10:32 PM | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.479 | $1,815 | —— |
| Jul 16, 10:10 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.339 | $3,761 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 02:26 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 12:50 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $2,117 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 10:24 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.450 | $3,419 | —— |
| Jul 11, 10:21 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,660 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 10:16 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.338 | $1,003 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 11, 10:15 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.255 | $3,732 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 11, 02:41 PM | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,469 | —— |
| Jul 11, 02:41 PM | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.527 | $2,597 | —— |
| Jul 11, 02:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $33.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:31 PM | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,938 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:30 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:28 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $4,192 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 01:30 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.458 | $1,922 | —— |
| Jul 8, 11:13 PM | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,247 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:28 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:40 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,341 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:39 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,204 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:39 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,590 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:34 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $3,851 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:32 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.802 | $2,152 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:09 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $3,554 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:41 AM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:37 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,526 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:35 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $2,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:35 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 05:59 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $91.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 04:01 AM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 11:21 PM | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,834 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 10:49 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,304 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 06:45 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $7,569 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:38 PM | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,255 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 12:17 AM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY NO | 0.580 | $2,378 | —— |
| Jul 5, 08:44 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 03:20 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $7,153 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 4, 01:30 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $60.0K | —— |
| Jul 4, 01:27 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $90.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 09:06 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $28.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 08:47 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $9,905 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 08:47 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.882 | $63.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 08:31 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $1,977 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 09:28 PM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,841 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 08:15 AM | U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $3,785 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:07 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,861 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 07:06 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $6,601 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 10:41 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.758 | $1,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 05:56 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $1,848 | —— |
| Jun 26, 07:09 PM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $2,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 04:58 PM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $48.6K | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 24, 05:29 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $252.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 05:29 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.734 | $163.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 08:37 PM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 02:14 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $3,655 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 02:14 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $23.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:40 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:34 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:34 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $5,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 01:32 AM | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.715 | $7,453 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:47 AM | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $1,684 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:45 AM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,037 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:41 AM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $7,966 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:38 AM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $22.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:36 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $6,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:30 AM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $3,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 07:49 AM | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,931 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 01:03 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.668 | $2,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:58 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.633 | $2,058 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $1,729 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:21 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,435 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:14 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY YES | 0.277 | $3,196 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 13, 05:09 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.397 | $1,773 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 05:08 AM | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.389 | $1,462 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:11 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.387 | $1,729 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 06:14 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.379 | $4,225 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 06:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.658 | $9,530 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:13 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.822 | $7,816 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 06:12 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $2,087 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:29 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,018 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:29 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.680 | $3,468 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:14 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,935 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:15 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.798 | $21.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:07 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $1,159 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:10 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY NO | 0.899 | $8,081 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:09 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY NO | 0.889 | $8,553 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:14 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.166 | $1,903 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:41 AM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.677 | $2,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.164 | $1,806 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:18 AM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,627 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:32 AM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,914 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 05:29 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,100 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 11:02 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:29 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,613 | —— |
| Jun 11, 09:56 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.705 | $2,695 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:44 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.637 | $3,610 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:40 PM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,029 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:15 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.118 | $9,746 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:40 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $6,014 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:19 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.680 | $1,182 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $5,998 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.320 | $6,293 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $2,111 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:04 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.160 | $6,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 02:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $1,017 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:35 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.439 | $4,342 | —— |
| Jun 11, 12:35 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.649 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:32 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $2,272 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 12:30 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,556 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:11 AM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,091 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:51 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $55.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:49 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $18.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $1,605 | —— |
| Jun 11, 04:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,778 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 04:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $3,501 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.037 | $6,525 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.330 | $5,405 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.040 | $2,620 | —— |
| Jun 11, 03:33 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.710 | $7,107 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.169 | $10.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 03:28 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.720 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.670 | $1,909 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:26 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.708 | $4,817 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 03:23 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:05 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,229 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:01 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $2,348 | —— |
| Jun 11, 01:01 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.649 | $6,132 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:00 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.690 | $7,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $2,433 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.669 | $1,646 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:47 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,010 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 06:16 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY NO | 0.855 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,223 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $2,304 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $2,333 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $2,934 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 04:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $2,222 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $2,761 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 09:29 AM | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $2,558 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:42 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,277 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 05:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $22.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 05:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,936 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 09:58 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $2,707 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 01:50 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.199 | $3,036 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 10:39 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.946 | $3,153 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $3,917 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.634 | $2,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,070 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 08:20 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.451 | $4,660 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.574 | $5,555 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $8,611 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 09:53 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,535 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 05:45 PM | 0x65f5c4e3 | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,614 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:36 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $3,208 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:11 AM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:54 AM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $7,503 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.005 | $2,269 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 11:31 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,403 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 07:33 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.980 | $5,236 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:27 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $2,970 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 04:19 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.974 | $3,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:08 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,403 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 31, 02:04 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,389 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 02:02 AM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,529 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:02 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $3,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 12:18 AM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.740 | $8,428 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:49 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.740 | $3,636 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:18 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $51.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.061 | $15.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $4,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.126 | $6,602 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:17 PM | 0x258031a5 | SELL NO | 0.140 | $1,253 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:16 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.241 | $1,320 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:11 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL YES | 0.754 | $2,604 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:03 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL YES | 0.752 | $3,255 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.682 | $2,157 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | 0x09148e8a | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:56 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $3,613 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 02:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.230 | $3,897 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 29, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $2,392 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 29, 03:23 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.298 | $5,551 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 11:25 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,369 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 10:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $5,922 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:38 PM | 0xa37173a8 | BUY YES | 0.165 | $1,108 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 01:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.796 | $26.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 01:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $44.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:32 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $6,858 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:09 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.717 | $2,013 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,966 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,049 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 08:03 PM | 0xd3990526 | SELL NO | 0.924 | $2,052 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:57 PM | 0xa37173a8 | BUY YES | 0.118 | $1,021 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $5,543 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $8,965 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $35.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |