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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x7f9e…3a0e with our methodology badges per row.

0x7f9e2d1df78614564a70becc7fa14aa9a6623a0e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

202

lifetime

PnL per $

-34%

historical realized

Win rate

52.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$575.6K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 202 resolved trades · -34% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$658.4K

avg $3,292 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$354.1K / $304.3K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 02:25 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,270	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:24 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,570	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:59 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 24?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:11 AM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	BUY YES	0.810	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:08 AM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,142	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:07 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:04 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,229	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:22 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.907	$3,173	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:22 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	SELL NO	0.877	$1,492	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 01:21 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.905	$3,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.903	$2,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.891	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.460	$1,034	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 12:30 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.903	$14.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:28 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	BUY NO	0.940	$2,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.470	$1,444	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 08:54 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.899	$2,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:03 AM	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	BUY YES	0.967	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:02 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,144	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:02 AM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:55 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	BUY NO	0.932	$1,831	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:16 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.863	$8,104	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:16 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	SELL NO	0.990	$8,152	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:10 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.858	$1,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:10 AM	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?	SELL NO	0.992	$1,453	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:07 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.728	$2,433	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:07 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.420	$2,520	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:06 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.728	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:01 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.420	$2,100	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:01 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.858	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:00 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	SELL NO	0.990	$13.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:59 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.849	$2,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:59 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	SELL NO	0.990	$2,970	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:59 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.848	$1,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:58 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	SELL NO	0.991	$1,344	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:55 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.710	$1,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:54 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.420	$1,680	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 06:12 AM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.949	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,210	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:43 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	SELL NO	0.860	$3,945	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 09:19 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.807	$1,171	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 09:18 PM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	SELL NO	0.870	$3,613	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 08:26 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:24 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:24 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	SELL NO	0.950	$7,210	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 08:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.879	$1,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:34 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	SELL NO	0.870	$3,831	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 07:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.838	$3,309	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:57 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:27 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.836	$1,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:22 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.961	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.872	$1,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:47 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:45 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.942	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:44 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,658	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 01:01 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,634	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:55 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:27 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:24 PM	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.839	$1,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:19 PM	Will the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.810	$2,453	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:15 PM	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	BUY NO	0.712	$1,024	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:13 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:08 PM	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	BUY NO	0.739	$6,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:07 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:05 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.859	$1,870	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:02 PM	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.802	$6,858	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.898	$1,222	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 12:00 PM	Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,749	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 11:59 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.810	$80.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 08:17 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.791	$2,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:16 AM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	SELL NO	0.860	$2,754	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 07:23 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,036	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:22 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	SELL NO	0.860	$2,865	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 07:16 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.852	$2,036	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 09:39 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.860	$2,736	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 07:58 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.965	$2,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:32 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:30 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.885	$3,651	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 05:03 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.885	$2,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:05 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL NO	0.999	$4,028	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:03 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,359	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:15 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.890	$1,188	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 06:07 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,308	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:06 PM	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	SELL YES	0.931	$1,312	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 05:21 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.881	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:21 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.850	$12.5K	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 07:05 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.915	$1,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:05 AM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SELL YES	0.910	$2,499	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 07:05 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.914	$1,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:05 AM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SELL YES	0.910	$1,820	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:56 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.878	$8,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 09:55 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,539	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 09:53 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.957	$4,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 09:53 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.956	$1,147	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 09:51 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.210	$21.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:24 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.919	$1,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:49 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:49 PM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SELL YES	0.910	$2,730	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 07:50 AM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:06 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:05 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.880	$1,760	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 11:52 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.898	$1,435	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 11:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.803	$1,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 11:51 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 11:50 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.956	$2,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 11:50 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	SELL NO	0.945	$7,921	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 08:35 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.863	$1,341	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:34 AM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SELL YES	0.920	$1,346	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 03:06 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.872	$1,171	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:05 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.865	$1,257	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:05 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.866	$1,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:04 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	SELL NO	0.890	$5,131	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 03:01 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,637	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:00 AM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	SELL NO	0.949	$2,642	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 02:58 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,234	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:57 AM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SELL YES	0.920	$3,142	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 08:24 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,516	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:22 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	BUY NO	0.914	$1,449	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 08:21 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.969	$1,214	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:23 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,844	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:31 AM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.960	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:29 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$4,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:38 PM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	BUY YES	0.930	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:33 PM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	BUY YES	0.930	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:33 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,480	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:55 AM	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	BUY YES	0.930	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:53 AM	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,684	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:49 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,396	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:43 AM	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:54 AM	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY NO	0.810	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 11:06 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.957	$1,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:07 AM	Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,139	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 11:22 AM	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:23 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,921	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:15 AM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,253	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:34 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$8,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:16 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,090	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,674	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:32 PM	Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.640	$2,229	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:31 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,363	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 08:42 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:41 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 05:12 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:11 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:56 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL NO	0.810	$1,619	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 09:54 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL NO	0.810	$1,620	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 09:52 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL NO	0.850	$3,400	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 09:51 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL NO	0.850	$1,377	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 09:16 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:11 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.779	$1,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:10 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.996	$2,989	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 08:15 PM	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:41 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.995	$6,966	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 02:51 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,994	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:42 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.710	$1,026	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:33 PM	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 05:32 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.989	$8,901	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 09:56 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$1,740	— (SELL)
Jun 26, 08:36 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:58 PM	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:58 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL NO	0.983	$1,966	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 07:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 07:35 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.990	$4,800	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 04:07 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,529	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:04 PM	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,664	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	SELL NO	0.993	$4,893	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 09:08 AM	Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.760	$1,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:06 AM	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:05 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:39 PM	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,118	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	SELL NO	0.990	$2,564	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 01:31 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	SELL NO	0.992	$1,509	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 04:02 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?	BUY NO	0.670	$2,108	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:00 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 12?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,384	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:30 PM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?	SELL NO	0.976	$2,969	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:36 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 12?	SELL NO	0.990	$1,604	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 09:54 AM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.772	$1,193	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:53 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.812	$1,625	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 09:49 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:44 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.939	$3,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:08 AM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.984	$1,968	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 11:26 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,215	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 09:33 PM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:33 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.987	$3,082	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:39 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.839	$1,518	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:38 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.822	$1,644	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:21 PM	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY NO	0.750	$2,225	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:20 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$3,280	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:15 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:37 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.991	$1,982	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:02 PM	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,687	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:01 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$2,460	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:00 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:59 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	SELL NO	0.985	$1,970	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:47 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,565	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:46 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:22 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.680	$1,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:21 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.668	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:21 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.792	$3,269	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

62 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	9	$107.5K	$-107,466
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Tech	19	$65.4K	+$12.7K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Other	14	$62.5K	+$59.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	Other	15	$43.2K	+$25.7K
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	12	$41.2K	$-25,180
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Tech	11	$34.0K	+$34.0K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Other	15	$25.8K	+$25.8K
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Politics	8	$22.5K	$-537
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	1	$21.2K	$-21,155
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Other	6	$15.7K	$-5,582
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Other	3	$13.7K	$-694
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Other	5	$12.8K	$-12,850
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Tech	6	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Other	6	$10.9K	$-5,095
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Politics	4	$9,960	+$9,960
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Other	3	$8,466	$-4,268
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?	Tech	4	$8,250	$-8,250
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	Other	3	$8,159	+$8,159
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	2	$8,156	+$8,156
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Other	1	$7,921	$-7,921
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Tech	3	$6,711	+$6,711
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Other	1	$6,289	+$6,289
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Other	1	$5,000	+$5,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Other	1	$4,893	$-4,893
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	Other	1	$4,800	$-4,800
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Other	1	$4,741	+$4,741
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	Tech	2	$4,733	+$4,733
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$4,129	+$4,129
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	Tech	2	$4,072	$-4,072
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Other	1	$4,028	$-4,028

Showing top 30 by volume.