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Erasmus.

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc658…b784 with our methodology badges per row.

0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
129
lifetime
PnL per $
-25%
historical realized
Win rate
37.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$994.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 129 resolved trades · -25% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
200
capped at 200
Distinct markets
35
Volume (90d)
$1.44M
avg $7,188 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.21M / $224.7K
net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 16, 02:09 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.230$1,729— (SELL)
Jul 15, 07:33 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.200$55.9KCheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 11:54 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.930$18.9K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 11:53 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.933$78.6K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:30 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.829$69.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:11 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY YES0.130$5,985Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 02:11 PMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?BUY YES0.090$2,317Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 06:08 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.760$15.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:32 PMWill Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?BUY YES0.340$1,098Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 03:07 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.285$2,755Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 08:09 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?SELL YES0.318$6,205— (SELL)
Jun 30, 04:16 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.490$1,293—
Jun 30, 03:41 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.420$2,100—
Jun 30, 03:18 PMWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.472$3,012—
Jun 29, 03:30 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.400$1,843Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 11:09 PMWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?BUY YES0.680$4,708Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:16 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?BUY YES0.320$4,726Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 01:40 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.490$59.7K—
Jun 22, 01:14 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?BUY YES0.290$3,195Cheap band — no rep
Jun 12, 03:15 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.230$1,880Cheap band — no rep
Jun 12, 03:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?BUY YES0.680$1,393Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.450$2,001—
Jun 12, 03:14 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.370$2,223Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 02:15 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.200$1,984Cheap band — no rep
Jun 12, 02:14 AM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.350$5,680Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 02:14 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.139$1,275Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 08:07 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.448$1,452—
Jun 11, 07:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.160$1,444Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:30 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.408$2,562—
Jun 11, 07:24 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.397$1,182Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:24 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.413$3,085—
Jun 11, 07:21 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.357$2,127Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:21 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.200$2,350Cheap band — no rep
Jun 11, 07:13 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.186$5,297Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:13 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.360$4,942Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:13 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.346$1,883Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 07:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.153$1,604Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:37 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.300$30.0K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:30 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.350$2,463Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:30 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.120$1,151Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.420$1,024—
Jun 11, 06:19 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.330$1,935Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:13 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.160$2,192Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:12 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.420$4,096—
Jun 11, 06:12 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.740$4,085Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:12 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.330$1,439Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:12 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.128$2,301Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 06:03 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.300$4,549Cheap band — no rep
Jun 11, 05:49 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.210$1,468Cheap band — no rep
Jun 11, 05:48 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.387$4,055Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 05:48 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?BUY YES0.720$1,566Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:46 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?BUY YES0.542$2,228—
Jun 11, 05:46 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.740$1,991Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:46 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.340$2,323Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 05:46 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.162$2,330Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 08:28 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.390$2,090Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 08:28 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.180$3,793Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 08:19 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.140$3,306Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 07:19 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.370$1,037Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 07:19 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.130$10.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 07:19 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.230$3,327Cheap band — no rep
Jun 3, 07:19 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.036$1,696—
Jun 3, 02:39 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.036$1,484—
Jun 2, 02:28 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.260$5,154Cheap band — no rep
Jun 2, 02:28 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.390$1,067Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 2, 02:28 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.060$20.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 05:37 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.270$2,647Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 04:56 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.060$4,182Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:23 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.060$1,584Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 06:07 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.129$3,022Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 02:51 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.409$10.3K—
May 29, 02:51 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.090$11.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 28, 02:13 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.200$3,784Cheap band — no rep
May 28, 02:13 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.450$2,029—
May 28, 02:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.300$16.3KCheap band — no rep
May 28, 02:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.090$38.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 28, 02:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.083$5,955Killed band — neutral expectation
May 27, 05:11 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.420$1,255—
May 27, 04:25 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.490$3,581—
May 27, 04:22 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY YES0.328$3,607Killed band — neutral expectation
May 26, 03:59 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.250$3,874Cheap band — no rep
May 26, 03:53 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.400$1,328Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 02:49 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?SELL YES0.168$11.7K— (SELL)
May 24, 12:15 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.570$62.0K—
May 24, 12:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.420$2,769—
May 23, 09:57 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.680$1,739Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:54 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.660$1,452Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:54 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.769$2,697Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:53 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.598$2,589—
May 23, 09:50 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.595$2,199—
May 23, 09:49 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.678$2,111Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:49 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.760$1,853Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:45 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.597$1,455—
May 23, 09:45 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.665$4,958Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:45 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.650$1,288Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:44 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.208$2,363Cheap band — no rep
May 23, 09:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.570$6,594—
May 23, 09:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.650$2,831Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:08 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.660$3,285Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:08 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.618$1,096Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:54 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.646$1,323Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:48 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.549$3,131—
May 23, 08:39 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.645$1,535Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:33 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.632$1,937Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:33 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.648$7,681Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:32 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.584$6,947—
May 23, 08:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.517$6,586—
May 23, 08:31 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.621$1,478Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.450$9,436—
May 23, 08:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.420$2,601—
May 23, 08:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.444$4,206—
May 23, 08:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.300$1,849Cheap band — no rep
May 23, 08:13 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.549$1,859—
May 23, 08:12 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.416$2,428—
May 23, 06:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.496$1,674—
May 23, 06:02 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.555$1,689—
May 23, 06:01 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.400$2,134Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 05:58 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.377$4,747Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 03:43 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.448$1,581—
May 23, 03:41 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.428$3,664—
May 23, 03:31 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.399$2,724Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 03:30 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY YES0.183$5,152Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 02:45 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.420$9,089—
May 23, 02:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.597$1,215—
May 23, 02:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.378$1,890Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 02:29 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.539$6,927—
May 23, 02:28 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.499$1,570—
May 23, 02:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.279$8,803Cheap band — no rep
May 23, 02:18 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.558$2,011—
May 23, 02:15 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.267$1,519Cheap band — no rep
May 23, 02:14 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.410$1,393—
May 23, 02:14 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.959$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:13 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.839$68.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:13 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.849$23.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:04 PM0x1eeb9106BUY YES0.930$11.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:04 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.819$3,180Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:57 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.315$2,125Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 01:55 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.719$32.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:12 PM0xb7dd41c1BUY NO0.740$5,634Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:18 PM0xfb3249f5BUY NO0.970$3,524Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:12 PM0xfb3249f5BUY NO0.970$6,007Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:11 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.360$3,091Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 05:10 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.350$1,998Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 05:01 PMTulsi Gabbard out by June 30?BUY YES0.920$5,453Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:14 PM0x53098776SELL YES0.052$1,562— (SELL)
May 21, 07:08 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.200$6,172Cheap band — no rep
May 21, 07:08 PM0x53098776BUY YES0.063$1,004Killed band — neutral expectation
May 21, 07:08 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.383$1,619Killed band — neutral expectation
May 21, 05:11 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.452$12.6K—
May 21, 05:11 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.244$12.7KCheap band — no rep
May 21, 01:55 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.190$11.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 21, 01:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.170$25.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 21, 12:36 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.330$2,279Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 06:33 PM0x53098776BUY YES0.107$1,670Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 05:25 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.391$5,380Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 05:18 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.390$6,204Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 05:03 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.370$5,487Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 04:40 PM0xb7dd41c1SELL NO0.631$5,303— (SELL)
May 20, 02:21 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.330$1,891Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 02:18 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.370$3,472Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 02:18 PM0xb7dd41c1BUY NO0.560$4,707—
May 20, 02:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.120$8,260Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 02:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.108$10.6KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 19, 07:14 PM0x098afeadSELL NO0.771$6,131— (SELL)
May 19, 06:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.110$1,870— (SELL)
May 19, 04:52 PM0x098afeadBUY NO0.870$6,922Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:31 PMWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY YES0.485$2,480—
May 19, 04:31 PM0x99a0fdc1BUY YES0.768$1,461Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:31 PM0x781a06aaBUY NO0.802$9,899Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:57 PM0x99a0fdc1BUY NO0.403$3,566—
May 19, 02:56 PM0x781a06aaBUY YES0.424$5,431—
May 18, 07:09 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.140$2,014Killed band — neutral expectation
May 18, 07:02 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.053$5,459Killed band — neutral expectation
May 18, 07:02 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY YES0.050$1,908—
May 18, 07:02 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.336$3,889Killed band — neutral expectation
May 18, 03:02 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.100$24.0K— (SELL)
May 15, 05:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.110$5,500Killed band — neutral expectation
May 14, 02:56 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.340$25.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 14, 02:51 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.340$17.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 14, 02:51 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.120$12.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 13, 03:18 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.130$1,607Killed band — neutral expectation
May 12, 03:51 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.350$16.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 11, 05:16 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.420$2,624—
May 10, 09:02 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.390$4,066Killed band — neutral expectation
May 10, 08:54 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.230$18.4KCheap band — no rep
May 10, 08:49 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.220$2,009Cheap band — no rep
May 10, 08:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.230$2,300Cheap band — no rep
May 10, 08:25 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.410$5,228—
May 10, 08:21 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.230$1,716Cheap band — no rep
May 10, 08:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.161$8,031— (SELL)
May 10, 08:13 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.360$9,745— (SELL)
May 10, 08:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.181$3,074— (SELL)
May 10, 08:12 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL YES0.200$9,604— (SELL)
May 10, 06:57 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.470$6,028—
May 10, 06:27 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.280$12.1KCheap band — no rep
May 10, 06:17 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.480$8,546—
May 10, 06:10 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY YES0.470$1,124—
May 10, 05:53 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.500$5,000— (SELL)
May 10, 05:53 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.500$3,272— (SELL)
May 10, 05:53 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.699$25.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

35 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other42$318.8K+$244.8K
0x6114a8a3—46$264.7K+$168.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance2$148.3K$-8,779
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech22$117.0K+$117.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other2$91.5K+$91.5K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other3$90.2K+$86.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech8$74.5K+$74.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other11$44.1K+$44.1K
0x366f8964—8$37.6K+$37.6K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other8$34.7K+$11.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance2$34.4K$-3,455
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech4$19.3K+$127
0xb7dd41c1—3$15.6K+$5,039
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Other5$15.4K+$2,955
0x781a06aa—2$15.3K+$15.3K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other1$14.5K+$14.5K
0x098afead—2$13.1K+$791
0x1eeb9106—1$11.4K+$11.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Other6$10.4K+$10.4K
0xfb3249f5—2$9,531+$9,531
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Tech2$7,921+$7,921
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Other2$6,076+$6,076
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Other1$5,985+$5,985
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?Other1$5,453+$5,453
0x99a0fdc1—2$5,027+$5,027
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Politics1$4,708+$4,708
0x53098776—3$4,236+$1,112
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Other1$3,607+$3,607
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$3,180+$3,180
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics1$2,480+$2,480

Showing top 30 by volume.