| Jun 12, 03:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,880 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,393 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,001 | —— |
| Jun 12, 03:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $2,223 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,984 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 12, 02:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $5,680 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.139 | $1,275 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 08:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.448 | $1,452 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,444 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.408 | $2,562 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.397 | $1,182 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.413 | $3,085 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.357 | $2,127 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $2,350 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.186 | $5,297 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $4,942 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $1,883 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.153 | $1,604 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $30.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $2,463 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,151 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,024 | —— |
| Jun 11, 06:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,935 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,192 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $4,096 | —— |
| Jun 11, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $4,085 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,439 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $2,301 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $4,549 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,468 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 05:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.387 | $4,055 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:48 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $1,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.542 | $2,228 | —— |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $1,991 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $2,323 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.162 | $2,330 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 08:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $2,090 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 08:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.180 | $3,793 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 08:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,306 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,037 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $10.3K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $3,327 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 07:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $1,696 | —— |
| Jun 3, 02:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.036 | $1,484 | —— |
| Jun 2, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $5,154 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 2, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,067 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 2, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $20.5K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,647 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 1, 04:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $4,182 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.060 | $1,584 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.129 | $3,022 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.409 | $10.3K | —— |
| May 29, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $11.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $3,784 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $2,029 | —— |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $16.3K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $38.5K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.083 | $5,955 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 05:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,255 | —— |
| May 27, 04:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $3,581 | —— |
| May 27, 04:22 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.328 | $3,607 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 26, 03:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $3,874 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 03:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,328 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.168 | $11.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $62.0K | —— |
| May 24, 12:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $2,769 | —— |
| May 23, 09:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,739 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,452 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.769 | $2,697 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.598 | $2,589 | —— |
| May 23, 09:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.595 | $2,199 | —— |
| May 23, 09:49 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.678 | $2,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,853 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.597 | $1,455 | —— |
| May 23, 09:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.665 | $4,958 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $1,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.208 | $2,363 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 09:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $6,594 | —— |
| May 23, 09:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $2,831 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $3,285 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.618 | $1,096 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.646 | $1,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.549 | $3,131 | —— |
| May 23, 08:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.645 | $1,535 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.632 | $1,937 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.648 | $7,681 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.584 | $6,947 | —— |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.517 | $6,586 | —— |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.621 | $1,478 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $9,436 | —— |
| May 23, 08:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $2,601 | —— |
| May 23, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.444 | $4,206 | —— |
| May 23, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,849 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 08:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.549 | $1,859 | —— |
| May 23, 08:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.416 | $2,428 | —— |
| May 23, 06:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.496 | $1,674 | —— |
| May 23, 06:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.555 | $1,689 | —— |
| May 23, 06:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,134 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 05:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.377 | $4,747 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.448 | $1,581 | —— |
| May 23, 03:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.428 | $3,664 | —— |
| May 23, 03:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.399 | $2,724 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.183 | $5,152 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $9,089 | —— |
| May 23, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.597 | $1,215 | —— |
| May 23, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.378 | $1,890 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.539 | $6,927 | —— |
| May 23, 02:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.499 | $1,570 | —— |
| May 23, 02:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.279 | $8,803 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 02:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.558 | $2,011 | —— |
| May 23, 02:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.267 | $1,519 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 02:14 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $1,393 | —— |
| May 23, 02:14 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:13 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $68.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:13 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.819 | $3,180 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.315 | $2,125 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 01:55 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.719 | $32.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:12 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $5,634 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:18 PM | Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $3,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:12 PM | Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $6,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $3,091 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,998 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 05:01 PM | Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $5,453 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.052 | $1,562 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $6,172 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.063 | $1,004 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.383 | $1,619 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.452 | $12.6K | —— |
| May 21, 05:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.244 | $12.7K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 01:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $11.2K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 01:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $25.9K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 12:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,279 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 06:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.107 | $1,670 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 05:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.391 | $5,380 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 05:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $6,204 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 05:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $5,487 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 04:40 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.631 | $5,303 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,891 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $3,472 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:18 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $4,707 | —— |
| May 20, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $8,260 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.108 | $10.6K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 07:14 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.771 | $6,131 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 06:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,870 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 04:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $6,922 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 04:31 PM | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.485 | $2,480 | —— |
| May 19, 04:31 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.768 | $1,461 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 04:31 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.802 | $9,899 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:57 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.403 | $3,566 | —— |
| May 19, 02:56 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.424 | $5,431 | —— |
| May 18, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,014 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.053 | $5,459 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.050 | $1,908 | —— |
| May 18, 07:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.336 | $3,889 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 03:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $24.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $5,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 14, 02:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $25.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 14, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $17.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 14, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $12.0K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 13, 03:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,607 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 12, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $16.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 05:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $2,624 | —— |
| May 10, 09:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $4,066 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 08:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $18.4K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 08:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,009 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 08:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,300 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 08:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $5,228 | —— |
| May 10, 08:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,716 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 08:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.161 | $8,031 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $9,745 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.181 | $3,074 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $9,604 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 06:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $6,028 | —— |
| May 10, 06:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $12.1K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $8,546 | —— |
| May 10, 06:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,124 | —— |
| May 10, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $5,000 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $3,272 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.699 | $25.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,719 | —— |
| May 10, 02:05 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $5,152 | —— |
| May 10, 02:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $4,934 | —— |
| May 10, 01:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $9,756 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 01:41 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,371 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:41 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $2,465 | —— |
| May 10, 01:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.157 | $2,295 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 01:25 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $5,355 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $10.8K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 01:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.528 | $10.5K | —— |
| May 10, 01:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,468 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 01:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $3,568 | —— |
| May 9, 03:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.521 | $38.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 03:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.510 | $19.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 03:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.332 | $89.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.494 | $4,593 | —— |
| May 8, 07:25 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $4,024 | —— |
| May 8, 07:04 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $4,302 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 07:04 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $4,447 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |