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0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe639…082a with our methodology badges per row.

0xe639e41094bbeae18f3e6d1790c17299183f082a·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
11
lifetime
PnL per $
-15%
historical realized
Win rate
84.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$775.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 11 resolved trades · -15% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
21
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$1.11M
avg $53.0K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$889.5K / $224.1K
net direction

Recent trades

last 21 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 10:33 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.993$90.2K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:57 PMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?BUY NO0.996$28.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:55 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.998$15.7K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:54 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.998$66.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:47 PMKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?BUY NO0.995$17.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:47 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.993$43.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:44 PMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.995$1,043Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:14 AMIran closes its airspace by June 15?SELL YES0.998$2,500— (SELL)
May 28, 10:31 PMAliens.gov confirmed immigration website?BUY YES0.999$30.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:41 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?SELL NO0.997$13.0K— (SELL)
May 26, 02:59 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.990$19.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:39 PMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?SELL YES0.999$10.1K— (SELL)
May 15, 08:49 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.718$85.2K— (SELL)
May 12, 02:28 AMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?SELL NO0.725$7,247— (SELL)
May 3, 08:40 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY NO0.710$71.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 12:55 AMWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY NO0.995$14.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 10:38 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.993$106.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 10:23 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.993$42.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 12:10 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.996$365.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:04 PM0x7cb525e8BUY NO0.994$49.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 03:54 AM0x7cb525e8BUY NO0.994$33.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other1$365.8K+$365.8K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other2$156.2K$-14,236
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Finance2$148.5K+$148.5K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance2$133.9K$-46,620
0x7cb525e8—2$82.7K+$82.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Finance2$82.4K+$50.9K
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?Other1$30.0K+$30.0K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Finance1$28.9K+$28.9K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$19.2K+$19.2K
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?Finance1$17.8K+$17.8K
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Tech1$14.4K+$14.4K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?Other1$13.0K$-12,992
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Tech1$10.1K$-10,105
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Other1$7,247$-7,247
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Tech1$2,500$-2,500
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,043+$1,043