| Jun 10, 08:30 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $211.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:31 AM | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,513 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 11:48 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $37.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:29 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $19.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:57 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $7,023 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:40 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,723 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 08:45 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $7,500 | —— |
| May 28, 08:44 PM | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $13.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 03:44 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,318 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:52 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.997 | $149.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 01:40 PM | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:39 PM | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY NO | 0.951 | $1,931 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:39 PM | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,916 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 11:38 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $149.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:43 PM | Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $3,360 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:54 AM | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL NO | 0.800 | $24.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 04:07 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $3,322 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:14 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:14 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 04:27 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $23.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:59 PM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $14.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 08:31 AM | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 08:45 PM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $4,317 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:05 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:11 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:10 AM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $5,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:54 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $8,330 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:11 AM | Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,575 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:11 AM | Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 11:02 PM | Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $22.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 03:43 PM | Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 10:43 PM | Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $3,072 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 02:49 PM | Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $3,929 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:52 AM | Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.858 | $6,335 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 10:38 PM | Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $4,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 08:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 02:39 PM | Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.349 | $1,277 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 02:01 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $27.6K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 01:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $28.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 08:06 PM | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,680 | —— |
| May 8, 02:21 PM | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,604 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 01:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $22.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 09:57 AM | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $2,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:59 PM | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY NO | 0.625 | $1,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:01 PM | Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.975 | $1,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:01 PM | Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.975 | $2,026 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:01 PM | Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY YES | 0.974 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 07:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $4,446 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 09:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 06:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $28.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 06:03 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.995 | $31.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 2, 03:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $24.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 03:47 PM | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $5,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 02:06 PM | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.654 | $56.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 07:03 PM | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $3,903 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 03:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $74.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 03:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $139.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $115.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 06:17 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $27.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 10:07 PM | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.647 | $4,687 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $72.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:58 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $22.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:34 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $137.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 06:14 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $74.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 12:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $30.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 12:56 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.993 | $148.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 10:20 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 10:20 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $1,962 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 10:19 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $14.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 09:28 AM | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $3,542 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 01:15 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $31.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 01:14 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.970 | $2,064 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 09:00 AM | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $52.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 08:52 AM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.971 | $3,307 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 12:44 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.999 | $2,298 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 08:37 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.997 | $211.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 07:27 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $96.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 08:10 AM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $39.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 08:08 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 06:46 PM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.996 | $106.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 04:41 PM | 0x5ee192a6 | BUY | 0.330 | $2,798 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 24, 01:00 PM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.991 | $160.7K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 09:09 AM | 0x1bb43dc4 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $3,799 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 02:19 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.988 | $79.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:53 PM | 0x1bb43dc4 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $2,120 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 03:32 PM | 0x19ade1f6 | SELL YES | 0.998 | $3,151 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 03:32 PM | 0xd65dad10 | SELL NO | 0.996 | $1,624 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 03:08 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.995 | $2,596 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:08 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.994 | $1,751 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:08 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,336 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:08 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,626 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:07 PM | 0x87179e6f | SELL YES | 0.996 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 03:06 PM | 0xc5153775 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,592 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 03:02 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.990 | $3,762 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 03:01 PM | 0x3f297f4f | BUY NO | 0.980 | $2,178 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 01:24 PM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.989 | $43.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |