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0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8b4b…541b with our methodology badges per row.

0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
20
lifetime
PnL per $
-3%
historical realized
Win rate
86.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$202.6K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 20 resolved trades · -3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
62
Distinct markets
46
Volume (90d)
$612.4K
avg $9,877 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$540.6K / $71.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 62 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 01:57 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.956$11.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:49 PMBitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.997$23.7K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:21 PMWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL NO0.948$4,703— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:02 AMJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?SELL NO0.966$3,538— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:53 AMWill Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?BUY NO0.998$11.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:18 PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?BUY YES0.999$9,990Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:15 PMJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?SELL NO0.973$2,818— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:58 PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?BUY YES0.999$11.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:33 PMTrump out as President by June 30?BUY NO0.988$19.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:34 PMTrump out as President by May 31?SELL NO0.997$5,783— (SELL)
May 14, 11:40 AMWill Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.930$1,718Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:35 AMBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.830$2,192Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:34 AMBitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.982$1,998Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 09:13 AMTrump out as President by May 31?BUY NO0.995$1,449Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:50 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.900$25.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:49 PMWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?BUY NO0.931$5,555Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 12:22 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL NO0.998$5,868— (SELL)
May 4, 04:00 PMWill Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?BUY YES0.999$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:50 PMWill Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?BUY YES0.995$7,251Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:48 PMWill Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?BUY YES0.990$2,226Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 08:47 PMWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?BUY YES0.989$4,027Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:38 PMWill Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?BUY NO0.998$2,738Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:18 PMWill Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03?BUY YES0.999$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 07:48 AMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.987$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 12:46 PMWill Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25?BUY NO0.820$4,078Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 08:00 PMWill Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24?BUY YES0.925$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 07:47 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.921$13.8K— (SELL)
Apr 24, 07:47 AMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.966$11.6K— (SELL)
Apr 24, 07:39 AMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.996$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 07:25 PM0x5ac14977BUY0.999$4,995Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 03:57 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.930$40.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:45 AMWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?BUY NO0.460$1,156
Apr 17, 06:21 PM0xaeb97700BUY YES0.894$10.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 06:08 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.760$51.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:51 PM0x2cb4e04cBUY0.800$1,245Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:32 PM0xb56c5c15BUY NO0.977$1,436Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:31 PM0xb56c5c15BUY NO0.980$1,959Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:30 PM0x4fc4233aBUY YES0.830$1,652Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 12:14 PM0xbb074fa7BUY0.080$1,361Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 2, 03:36 PM0x539f8099BUY YES0.995$1,487Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 09:06 AM0xbd9d235aBUY NO0.997$1,425Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 12:07 PMEdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY YES0.995$5,861Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 12:00 PMEdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY YES0.994$4,933Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:47 AMEdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY NO0.969$3,611Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:46 AMEdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY NO0.999$35.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:45 AMEdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY NO0.963$9,629Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 06:33 PMTrump out as President by June 30?BUY NO0.950$5,695Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 06:23 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.840$4,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:45 AMEdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?BUY NO0.999$7,711Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:43 AMEdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY NO0.930$4,490Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:41 AMEdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY YES0.820$4,206Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:28 AMWill EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?BUY YES0.998$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 05:49 AM0x337e5c84BUY NO0.997$88.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 07:33 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.810$3,848Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 06:56 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.920$20.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 03:47 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.920$4,968Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 05:17 PM0x337e5c84BUY NO0.940$4,883Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 05:16 PM0x337e5c84BUY NO0.940$4,234Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 05:05 PM0x24fb7c2dBUY YES0.993$3,578Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 11:36 AM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.543$2,716
Mar 23, 11:35 AM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.550$5,500
Mar 23, 06:20 AM0x61ce3773BUY NO0.982$2,051Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

46 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x337e5c843$97.8K+$97.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Tech2$57.2K+$45.4K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other2$43.8K+$43.8K
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?Other1$35.0K+$35.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Other2$25.8K+$25.8K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics1$25.8K+$25.8K
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?Crypto2$25.7K$-21,705
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics2$25.1K+$25.1K
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?Other3$19.8K+$19.8K
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Other3$17.7K+$17.7K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$13.8K$-13,815
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03?Other1$13.1K+$13.1K
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Other1$13.1K+$13.1K
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?Crypto1$12.7K+$12.7K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?Crypto1$11.8K+$11.8K
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Crypto1$11.6K$-11,577
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other1$11.6K+$11.6K
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24?Other1$11.5K+$11.5K
Trump out as President by April 30?Politics1$11.3K+$11.3K
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?Other1$11.2K+$11.2K
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?Other2$10.8K+$10.8K
0xaeb977001$10.7K+$10.7K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?Crypto1$9,990+$9,990
0x773abaa52$8,216+$8,216
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?Other1$7,711+$7,711
Trump out as President by May 31?Politics2$7,231$-4,334
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Other2$6,356$-6,356
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics1$5,555+$5,555
0x5ac149771$4,995+$4,995
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics1$4,703$-4,703

Showing top 30 by volume.