0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8b4b…541b with our methodology badges per row.

0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

117

lifetime

PnL per $

-14%

historical realized

Win rate

82.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$3.30M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 117 resolved trades · -14% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

177

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$3.95M

avg $22.3K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$3.33M / $621.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 177 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 03:44 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.390	$1,378	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 20, 12:13 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.550	$1,375	—
Jul 20, 11:42 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.630	$2,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:58 AM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	SELL NO	0.999	$11.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 07:57 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:56 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.952	$1,886	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:34 PM	Will the winner of the 2026 Tour De France be from Denmark?	BUY NO	0.990	$9,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.944	$2,919	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 04:23 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	SELL NO	0.999	$9,518	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 03:22 PM	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 03:00 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.980	$4,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:57 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,524	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:56 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:56 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.986	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:15 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.710	$2,377	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 08:07 AM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.943	$9,869	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:59 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.740	$2,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:31 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:03 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,671	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:02 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:01 PM	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,064	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:55 PM	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:34 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.997	$89.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 02:34 PM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.582	$9,619	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 02:03 PM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.587	$10.3K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 01:41 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:39 PM	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,873	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:31 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.998	$7,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:26 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.998	$6,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:25 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,552	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:48 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,506	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:28 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.996	$2,903	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:33 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:31 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,322	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:30 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.995	$3,435	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:18 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.957	$53.4K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 06:17 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.997	$113.6K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 06:14 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.958	$7,834	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 06:13 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.038	$6,168	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 05:31 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.997	$6,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:24 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,830	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:50 AM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.390	$10.5K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 04:49 AM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.602	$15.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 04:40 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.972	$15.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:45 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,165	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:42 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:25 PM	Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.979	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:24 PM	Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.978	$8,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:24 PM	Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.990	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:03 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.996	$15.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:53 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 15?	BUY NO	0.999	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:11 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?	BUY YES	0.999	$39.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:10 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.951	$19.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:06 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.990	$18.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:00 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.951	$4,899	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 06:01 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,149	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 06:01 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$5,574	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 06:00 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:57 AM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.836	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:53 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.810	$32.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:49 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:40 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.890	$38.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:32 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.952	$1,028	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:21 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,663	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:21 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,416	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 04:47 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.995	$67.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:44 AM	Trump out as President by July 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$5,961	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:42 AM	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.930	$46.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:41 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$18.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.900	$70.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 05:21 PM	Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?	SELL NO	0.968	$29.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 05:21 PM	Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?	SELL NO	0.950	$39.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 05:03 PM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.341	$5,294	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 04:57 PM	Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.315	$7,875	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 04:56 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:50 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY NO	0.890	$43.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:49 PM	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	SELL NO	0.910	$37.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 04:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.980	$56.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:44 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	SELL NO	0.930	$19.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:41 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?	BUY NO	0.940	$41.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:39 PM	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?	BUY NO	0.920	$41.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:38 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.900	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:38 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.900	$73.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 01:56 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,641	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 01:55 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.950	$3,070	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:18 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.620	$1,483	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 09:13 AM	Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.300	$21.0K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 14, 05:47 AM	Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?	BUY YES	0.110	$2,200	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 04:56 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,247	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:55 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:48 AM	Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.977	$8,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 04:45 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.995	$49.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:05 PM	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.988	$9,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:03 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.976	$30.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:03 PM	Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.954	$42.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:02 PM	Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.973	$7,555	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:01 PM	Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.975	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:00 PM	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.989	$8,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 03:59 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.930	$8,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 03:59 PM	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.930	$66.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 03:59 PM	Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.850	$53.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:21 AM	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.987	$15.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:20 AM	Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?	BUY NO	0.956	$4,934	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:19 AM	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.910	$85.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:18 AM	Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.930	$28.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:15 AM	Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?	BUY NO	0.973	$48.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:12 AM	Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?	BUY NO	0.953	$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:12 AM	Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?	BUY NO	0.971	$29.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:09 AM	Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY NO	0.973	$7,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:35 AM	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?	BUY NO	0.930	$8,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:47 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	BUY NO	0.415	$8,300	—
Jul 10, 06:30 PM	Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals	BUY NO	0.890	$3,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 05:45 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.941	$53.5K	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 02:05 PM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.890	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:58 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.820	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:52 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.810	$5,377	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 11:58 AM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.889	$51.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:58 PM	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	BUY NO	0.998	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:20 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.058	$1,450	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 01:17 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.058	$1,450	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 01:15 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.058	$2,900	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 10:33 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$748.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:16 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.849	$4,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 10:53 AM	Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.856	$17.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 05:26 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.953	$93.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 03:43 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.800	$5,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 02:21 PM	Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.991	$9,735	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:00 AM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.790	$9,239	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:05 PM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.490	$2,563	—
Jul 4, 05:05 PM	Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:28 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.760	$4,749	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:23 AM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.490	$4,031	—
Jul 4, 10:19 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:46 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.824	$1,022	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 12:12 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 3?	BUY YES	0.995	$6,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 04:14 AM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	BUY YES	0.930	$1,288	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 07:50 PM	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$519.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:24 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?	BUY NO	0.999	$18.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:36 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:11 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.963	$19.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:00 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,533	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 02:50 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$16.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:13 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:51 AM	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.037	$2,960	—
Jun 26, 04:23 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$7,929	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:23 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.929	$1,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:02 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:55 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24?	BUY NO	0.999	$29.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:41 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.930	$17.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:33 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 10:36 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.928	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:32 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	BUY NO	0.981	$20.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 07:21 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 06:39 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.810	$1,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 06:35 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$33.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 06:34 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.952	$35.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 06:32 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:17 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:14 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.937	$26.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 04:32 AM	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.976	$8,453	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 11:30 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.961	$2,786	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:57 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.956	$11.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:49 PM	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$23.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 03:21 PM	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL NO	0.948	$4,703	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:02 AM	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	SELL NO	0.966	$3,538	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:53 AM	Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.998	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:18 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:15 PM	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	SELL NO	0.973	$2,818	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:58 PM	0x18f27608	BUY YES	0.999	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:33 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$19.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:34 PM	0x3ded5a57	SELL NO	0.997	$5,783	— (SELL)
May 14, 11:40 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:35 AM	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,192	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 11:34 AM	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 09:13 AM	0x3ded5a57	BUY NO	0.995	$1,449	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:50 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$25.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:49 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.931	$5,555	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

97 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$748.5K	+$748.5K
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$519.5K	+$519.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$203.4K	$-203,352
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	5	$152.8K	+$45.8K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	3	$133.0K	+$33.5K
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	9	$123.6K	+$82.6K
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	Tech	2	$122.5K	+$48.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	8	$110.9K	$-20,456
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?	Tech	3	$100.2K	+$20.9K
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	Tech	3	$93.8K	+$55.8K
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	Tech	2	$93.6K	+$93.6K
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Other	5	$87.0K	+$87.0K
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?	Tech	3	$71.8K	+$71.8K
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	4	$71.5K	+$71.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	1	$70.3K	+$70.3K
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?	Tech	2	$58.1K	+$52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	1	$56.7K	+$56.7K
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?	Tech	1	$53.8K	+$53.8K
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Other	1	$46.4K	+$46.4K
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?	Tech	1	$41.8K	+$41.8K
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	7	$41.7K	+$41.7K
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?	Tech	1	$41.5K	+$41.5K
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	4	$40.3K	$-29,680
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?	Crypto	1	$39.8K	+$39.8K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	3	$37.1K	+$32.3K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24?	Crypto	2	$36.0K	+$36.0K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	4	$35.4K	+$35.4K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Other	1	$35.2K	+$35.2K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 17?	Crypto	7	$30.9K	+$30.9K
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?	Tech	1	$30.4K	+$30.4K

Showing top 30 by volume.