| Jul 20, 06:01 PM | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.876 | $1,742 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 03:02 PM | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.378 | $1,694 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 17, 02:13 PM | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.887 | $2,921 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 08:41 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $19.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 11:51 AM | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,400 | —— |
| Jul 11, 10:42 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $3,841 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 01:29 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $11.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 09:40 PM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,197 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 12:03 PM | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.868 | $6,739 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 09:53 PM | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,200 | —— |
| Jul 3, 09:46 PM | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.699 | $9,912 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 04:04 PM | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY NO | 0.390 | $2,025 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 2, 02:02 PM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $1,537 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 02:01 PM | Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.663 | $1,087 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 03:24 PM | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,530 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 09:14 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.619 | $3,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 08:46 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.588 | $3,870 | —— |
| Jun 22, 11:54 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.724 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.249 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 08:15 AM | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,546 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 08:14 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $5,651 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:00 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $6,373 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:07 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $2,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:55 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $1,314 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.832 | $1,332 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | 0x258031a5 | SELL NO | 0.530 | $1,091 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:11 PM | 0x16608c4f | SELL NO | 0.826 | $1,892 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:34 AM | 0x16608c4f | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:33 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.709 | $2,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.919 | $3,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:55 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $3,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:16 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.729 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:55 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $1,040 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:12 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $1,080 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:44 AM | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,611 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:56 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.721 | $2,162 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 03:03 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.328 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 08:34 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $2,635 | —— |
| Jun 4, 07:18 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.684 | $2,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:59 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $2,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:59 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $3,696 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:42 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $2,760 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:48 PM | 0x83831604 | BUY NO | 0.884 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:48 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:04 PM | 0x09148e8a | BUY NO | 0.816 | $1,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:26 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,189 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:43 PM | 0x83831604 | BUY NO | 0.849 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:43 PM | 0x09148e8a | BUY NO | 0.859 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:06 PM | 0x553c1115 | SELL NO | 0.826 | $3,863 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:40 PM | 0x83831604 | BUY NO | 0.897 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 10:04 PM | 0x553c1115 | BUY NO | 0.791 | $3,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:28 PM | 0xb2e7dd21 | SELL NO | 0.917 | $3,209 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:59 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.519 | $2,668 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.693 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:55 PM | 0x35c73eb4 | SELL NO | 0.384 | $2,715 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:47 AM | 0x83831604 | SELL NO | 0.877 | $6,362 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:15 PM | 0x83831604 | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:13 PM | 0x83831604 | SELL NO | 0.816 | $3,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:07 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:35 PM | 0x1eeb9106 | BUY YES | 0.930 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:26 PM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.728 | $2,173 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:10 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $2,017 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:25 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $2,225 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:13 PM | 0x83831604 | SELL NO | 0.926 | $3,244 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:59 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 02:23 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.834 | $2,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.243 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 06:43 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,112 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:23 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.799 | $1,728 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:22 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $3,656 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:13 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.698 | $3,474 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:22 PM | 0x22014d44 | SELL NO | 0.835 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | 0x83831604 | SELL NO | 0.925 | $6,482 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL NO | 0.740 | $6,747 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 02:12 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,711 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:08 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:44 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.758 | $2,818 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:44 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.830 | $4,004 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:48 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.946 | $4,257 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.597 | $2,200 | —— |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 10:39 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $2,364 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:23 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,357 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:45 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.619 | $1,630 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:34 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.270 | $2,300 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 02:01 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.874 | $1,435 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:16 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.853 | $3,324 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:07 PM | 0x83831604 | BUY NO | 0.868 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:59 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY NO | 0.528 | $3,200 | —— |
| May 9, 01:15 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $24.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 04:32 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.903 | $2,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 04:31 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.823 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:46 PM | 0x5ed7e4e4 | SELL NO | 0.987 | $3,972 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:23 PM | 0x924a2942 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,591 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:48 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.570 | $2,681 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:47 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.596 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:46 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.514 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:35 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.410 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:27 PM | 0xcefc3175 | SELL NO | 0.915 | $2,716 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:06 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,378 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |