| Jun 13, 02:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.249 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 13, 08:15 AM | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,546 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 08:14 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $5,651 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:00 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $6,373 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:07 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $2,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:55 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $1,314 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:32 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.832 | $1,332 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.530 | $1,091 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:11 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $1,892 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 02:34 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:33 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.709 | $2,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.919 | $3,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:55 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $3,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:16 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.729 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 04:55 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $1,040 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 08:12 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $1,080 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 07:44 AM | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,611 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:56 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.721 | $2,162 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 03:03 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.328 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 08:34 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $2,635 | —— |
| Jun 4, 07:18 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.684 | $2,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:59 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $2,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:59 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $3,696 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:42 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $2,760 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:48 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.884 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:48 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:04 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.816 | $1,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:26 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,189 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:43 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:43 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:06 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $3,863 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:40 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 10:04 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.791 | $3,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:28 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | SELL NO | 0.917 | $3,209 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:59 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.519 | $2,668 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.693 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:55 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.384 | $2,715 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:47 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.877 | $6,362 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:15 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:13 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.816 | $3,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:07 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 05:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 03:35 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:26 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.728 | $2,173 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:10 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $2,017 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:25 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $2,225 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:13 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.926 | $3,244 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 02:23 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.834 | $2,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.243 | $1,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 06:43 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,112 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:23 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.799 | $1,728 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:22 PM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $3,656 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.698 | $3,474 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:22 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.835 | $1,669 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.925 | $6,482 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $6,747 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 02:12 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,711 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:08 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:44 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL YES | 0.758 | $2,818 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:44 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.830 | $4,004 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:48 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.946 | $4,257 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY YES | 0.597 | $2,200 | —— |
| May 20, 02:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 10:39 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $2,364 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:23 AM | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,357 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:45 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.619 | $1,630 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:34 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.270 | $2,300 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 02:01 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.874 | $1,435 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:16 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.853 | $3,324 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:07 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.868 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:59 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.528 | $3,200 | —— |
| May 9, 01:15 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $24.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 04:32 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.903 | $2,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 04:31 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.823 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:46 PM | Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $3,972 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:23 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,591 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:48 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.570 | $2,681 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:47 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.596 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:46 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.514 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:35 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.410 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:27 PM | Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.915 | $2,716 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:06 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,378 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 09:55 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,589 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:02 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,700 | —— |
| May 7, 03:59 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $2,036 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.400 | $1,629 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.654 | $3,824 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 09:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.936 | $8,313 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 09:33 PM | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.829 | $1,970 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:09 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,769 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 05:11 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 04:32 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.742 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 03:07 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $1,813 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 12:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.783 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 10:16 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.614 | $1,535 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:05 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:04 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.892 | $3,869 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:04 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $3,859 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:00 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.812 | $4,322 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 08:33 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $4,734 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 06:50 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $9,458 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 04:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $3,190 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 04:08 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:24 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 3, 08:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL NO | 0.818 | $8,058 | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:18 PM | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $3,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 02:09 AM | Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $2,531 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 02:05 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:34 PM | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,537 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 09:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $7,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 08:29 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 04:43 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,412 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 11:30 AM | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.912 | $1,412 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 11:19 AM | Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.947 | $7,290 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 11:45 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 07:33 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 10:40 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 02:09 PM | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 12:59 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $3,514 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 12:05 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.651 | $5,591 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 09:46 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,700 | —— |
| Apr 25, 05:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,470 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 08:37 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.279 | $3,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 08:24 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.202 | $1,500 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 08:11 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.326 | $3,269 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 08:11 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.685 | $4,174 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:39 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:28 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.755 | $6,793 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 04:12 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.897 | $1,901 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 04:11 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 09:32 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.200 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 20, 09:00 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,178 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 08:17 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.932 | $1,948 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 04:50 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 10:05 PM | 0x9dd27666 | SELL NO | 0.850 | $3,478 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 06:28 PM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | BUY NO | 0.733 | $1,201 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 12:34 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.912 | $4,134 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 12:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.233 | $1,500 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 19, 11:34 AM | 0xdb788682 | BUY NO | 0.844 | $1,426 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 11:18 AM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $2,176 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 07:12 PM | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.914 | $5,466 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 07:12 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.848 | $1,144 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 07:12 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.865 | $2,546 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 11:04 AM | 0xdda63e9a | SELL NO | 0.900 | $2,923 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 07:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,830 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 03:00 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.914 | $6,580 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,789 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 01:10 PM | 0xd81f6116 | SELL NO | 0.991 | $5,629 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 08:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.755 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 09:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 01:40 PM | 0x3c41f178 | SELL NO | 0.680 | $1,987 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 12:36 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,337 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 12:31 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 12:22 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.833 | $1,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 04:55 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $2,888 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 08:19 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,267 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 07:28 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,057 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 01:58 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 11:33 AM | 0x4f8bddad | SELL NO | 0.882 | $3,937 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 10:40 AM | 0x9dd27666 | BUY NO | 0.500 | $2,020 | —— |
| Apr 13, 10:31 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.725 | $10.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 04:52 PM | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.942 | $1,946 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 01:04 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.613 | $1,182 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:02 PM | 0x00373f48 | SELL NO | 0.813 | $2,631 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 12:56 PM | 0x9dd27666 | BUY NO | 0.622 | $1,090 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 12:56 PM | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $2,089 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 09:48 AM | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,158 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 07:22 AM | 0xd81f6116 | BUY NO | 0.735 | $1,759 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 04:24 AM | 0xdb788682 | BUY NO | 0.620 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 07:44 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $3,901 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 07:43 PM | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.815 | $2,426 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 07:38 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $6,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 07:37 PM | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | SELL NO | 0.801 | $7,912 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 07:23 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.260 | $2,160 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 11, 07:09 PM | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.931 | $2,160 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 05:38 PM | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.925 | $1,416 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 12:09 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | BUY NO | 0.449 | $1,324 | —— |
| Apr 11, 12:09 PM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.945 | $1,324 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 08:06 AM | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.933 | $4,327 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 07:07 PM | 0x4f8bddad | BUY NO | 0.778 | $1,655 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 07:07 PM | US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.948 | $1,778 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 08:56 AM | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $1,518 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 07:19 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | BUY NO | 0.473 | $1,064 | —— |
| Apr 10, 07:19 AM | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.952 | $1,966 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 05:17 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $1,188 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 9, 04:50 PM | 0xdda63e9a | BUY NO | 0.670 | $2,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 04:50 PM | 0xdb788682 | BUY NO | 0.745 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 04:40 PM | Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $10.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 11:05 AM | 0xdb788682 | BUY NO | 0.745 | $1,469 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 11:03 AM | 0xd81f6116 | BUY NO | 0.808 | $2,594 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 07:48 AM | US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.911 | $1,324 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 12:58 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.814 | $2,038 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 12:55 PM | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.625 | $2,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 11:42 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.708 | $1,813 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 10:57 AM | Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.741 | $1,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 10:43 AM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.786 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 10:32 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,035 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |