| Jul 13, 07:22 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 12:56 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $4,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 11:29 AM | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 03:36 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,124 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 10:14 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 09:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $11.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 05:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $1,982 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 03:14 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $9,910 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 10:14 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $3,942 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 10:47 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 03:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $6,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 11:43 AM | 0x258031a5 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $12.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 10:35 PM | 0x258031a5 | BUY YES | 0.994 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:28 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:26 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.977 | $1,065 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:36 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.974 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:16 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 06:19 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:03 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.965 | $1,098 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 01:46 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:26 AM | Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $2,080 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:19 PM | 0x7f0c9f4b | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 10:46 AM | 0x5fe30818 | BUY YES | 0.990 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 10:44 AM | GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:43 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $28.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:44 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.657 | $1,169 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 11:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,037 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:13 PM | 0x018b3300 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,037 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:02 PM | Claude 4.8 released by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $1,022 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $2,937 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.863 | $2,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 06:55 PM | 0xbeab8314 | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:54 AM | 0xd5f50365 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:17 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 04:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.857 | $7,305 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $6,205 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:09 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $7,153 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:55 PM | 0xbeab8314 | BUY NO | 0.896 | $4,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:45 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.751 | $4,504 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:38 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $5,920 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:21 PM | 0xbeab8314 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:18 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.746 | $2,239 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 02:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.754 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:03 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.765 | $2,296 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 10:19 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.745 | $21.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,341 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 10:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $4,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 10:14 AM | 0xd3026827 | SELL NO | 0.937 | $4,035 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $1,554 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 10:55 AM | 0xd3026827 | SELL NO | 0.971 | $1,456 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 03:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $17.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 09:45 AM | 0xd3026827 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $6,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 10:42 AM | 0x70d706fe | BUY NO | 0.996 | $23.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:42 PM | 0x35dab113 | BUY YES | 0.993 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 10:18 AM | 0x2509daa2 | BUY NO | 0.996 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 03:43 PM | 0x471e2fa0 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $4,575 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 03:27 PM | 0x667c01a1 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $18.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |