Istaroth

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x9efd…ad00 with our methodology badges per row.

0x9efda3d6354152901fc4706c3b1a9ce50b45ad00·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+37%

historical realized

Win rate

59.8%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$404.9K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)

137

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.03M

avg $7,527 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$575.5K / $455.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 137 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 08:25 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.918	$1,024	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 05:57 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.880	$17.4K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:38 AM	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	SELL NO	0.653	$3,124	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 01:08 PM	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	SELL NO	0.773	$1,328	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 03:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.860	$21.3K	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 02:41 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.230	$3,885	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 02:55 AM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.927	$1,604	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 11:01 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.230	$19.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 10:59 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.860	$1,993	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 10:41 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.230	$21.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 05:33 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.250	$11.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 05:05 AM	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,097	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 04:36 AM	Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	BUY YES	0.960	$1,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:59 PM	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	SELL YES	0.800	$1,600	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:21 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.800	$13.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:20 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:32 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.979	$4,894	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 12:26 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.750	$45.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:18 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.913	$28.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 11:20 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:08 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.929	$9,504	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 01:19 PM	Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	SELL YES	0.746	$1,742	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 10:48 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.307	$9,223	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 04:18 AM	0x366f8964	SELL NO	0.987	$30.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:02 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:28 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.810	$7,878	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.820	$13.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 04:47 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$3,919	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:09 AM	0xc587bda9	BUY YES	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:07 AM	0xc587bda9	BUY YES	0.999	$5,540	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:16 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.959	$4,822	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 05:23 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:33 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.130	$1,332	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:58 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.800	$6,584	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:02 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,179	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:52 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:47 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$10.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:38 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$35.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:36 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,381	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.987	$4,105	— (SELL)
May 31, 02:56 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:55 PM	0xc792f882	BUY NO	0.998	$4,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:51 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.971	$5,501	— (SELL)
May 30, 07:21 AM	0xc7d6aa9c	BUY YES	0.999	$5,642	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:21 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.963	$4,815	— (SELL)
May 29, 05:58 PM	0x5f5818ce	SELL NO	0.981	$14.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:20 AM	0x5f5818ce	BUY NO	0.987	$2,961	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:20 AM	0x4788c562	SELL NO	0.993	$1,629	— (SELL)
May 29, 06:56 AM	0x4788c562	SELL NO	0.993	$9,930	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:45 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.960	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:41 AM	0x5f5818ce	BUY NO	0.993	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:40 AM	0x4788c562	BUY NO	0.994	$2,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 AM	0x4788c562	BUY NO	0.994	$3,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:02 PM	0x4788c562	BUY NO	0.989	$1,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:13 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:01 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:18 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:16 PM	0x4788c562	BUY NO	0.979	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:31 PM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.993	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:23 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:46 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.993	$8,592	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:44 PM	0x4bab360a	BUY NO	0.979	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:01 PM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.984	$1,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:36 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.990	$4,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:36 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.989	$4,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:42 PM	0x4bab360a	BUY NO	0.977	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:51 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.980	$4,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 09:27 AM	0xd4cb184e	BUY YES	0.997	$2,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:56 AM	0xd4cb184e	BUY YES	0.995	$9,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:17 AM	0xd4cb184e	BUY YES	0.995	$1,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:53 AM	0x416e3cbe	SELL NO	0.983	$1,579	— (SELL)
May 27, 04:09 AM	0xd4cb184e	BUY YES	0.995	$3,482	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:08 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	SELL NO	0.979	$3,353	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:56 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$40.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:59 PM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.970	$2,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:57 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.980	$4,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:06 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	SELL YES	0.971	$1,154	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:58 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	SELL YES	0.979	$1,147	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:05 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:26 PM	0x416e3cbe	SELL NO	0.979	$12.4K	— (SELL)
May 26, 09:22 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.967	$9,670	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:43 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:42 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	SELL NO	0.964	$8,298	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:34 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:10 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.969	$1,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:01 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:20 AM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.966	$7,268	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:17 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.988	$1,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:36 AM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.974	$9,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:25 PM	0x828aaec4	SELL NO	0.975	$3,900	— (SELL)
May 24, 03:57 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.987	$6,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 03:38 AM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.959	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 03:36 AM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.948	$6,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:55 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.960	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:52 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.956	$1,827	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:45 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.880	$8,529	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:43 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.880	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:31 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.880	$3,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 05:13 AM	0x828aaec4	SELL NO	0.948	$4,163	— (SELL)
May 22, 05:33 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.910	$6,307	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:17 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.910	$5,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:12 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.910	$2,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:42 PM	0x416e3cbe	BUY NO	0.890	$1,873	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:05 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.940	$3,901	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 08:05 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.940	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:55 AM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.976	$2,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:08 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.940	$3,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:55 PM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.984	$9,656	— (SELL)
May 20, 04:53 PM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.984	$1,646	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:12 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.920	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:50 AM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.984	$2,952	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:08 PM	0x1591b72d	BUY NO	0.987	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:22 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.960	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:58 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.920	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:27 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.954	$17.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:15 AM	0x1591b72d	BUY NO	0.985	$4,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:14 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.945	$10.8K	— (SELL)
May 19, 04:13 AM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.920	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:11 AM	0x1591b72d	BUY NO	0.985	$9,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.954	$7,433	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:36 PM	0x828aaec4	SELL NO	0.880	$5,157	— (SELL)
May 18, 12:58 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.890	$3,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:08 AM	0x828aaec4	SELL NO	0.870	$6,960	— (SELL)
May 18, 05:16 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.958	$3,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:15 AM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.979	$4,273	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:57 AM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.981	$2,257	— (SELL)
May 17, 03:00 PM	0x828aaec4	BUY NO	0.900	$4,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:29 PM	0x1591b72d	SELL NO	0.980	$6,496	— (SELL)
May 15, 02:06 PM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.959	$3,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 12:49 PM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.959	$3,282	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:13 AM	0x1591b72d	BUY NO	0.981	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 04:17 AM	0x1591b72d	BUY NO	0.980	$5,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 02:01 PM	0xcdc9fdf7	BUY NO	0.996	$7,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:49 AM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.951	$5,706	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:49 AM	0xd8617701	BUY NO	0.949	$1,888	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:13 AM	0xcdc9fdf7	BUY NO	0.997	$6,596	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

37 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
0x416e3cbe	—	16	$101.2K	+$73.3K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	11	$89.3K	+$45.6K
0x828aaec4	—	16	$78.7K	+$38.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	5	$74.5K	$-4,105
0x1591b72d	—	11	$72.5K	+$17.9K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Other	4	$55.7K	$-55,658
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	4	$48.1K	$-21,218
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	2	$47.0K	$-46,993
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	9	$45.2K	+$15.0K
0xdeb0a6ab	—	9	$40.2K	+$16.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	1	$40.0K	+$40.0K
0x4788c562	—	6	$31.3K	+$8,199
0x366f8964	—	1	$30.9K	$-30,873
0x5f5818ce	—	3	$28.6K	+$711
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	1	$28.5K	$-28,545
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	4	$28.1K	+$18.3K
0xc587bda9	—	2	$25.5K	+$25.5K
0x4bab360a	—	2	$25.0K	+$25.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	1	$21.3K	$-21,343
0xd4cb184e	—	4	$18.1K	+$18.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Other	1	$17.4K	$-17,386
0xd8617701	—	5	$17.1K	+$17.1K
0xcdc9fdf7	—	2	$14.2K	+$14.2K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Tech	1	$9,504	$-9,504
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Other	1	$9,223	$-9,223
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	1	$6,584	$-6,584
0xc7d6aa9c	—	1	$5,642	+$5,642
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Finance	2	$4,452	$-4,452
0xc792f882	—	1	$4,269	+$4,269
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Other	3	$3,506	$-1,096

Showing top 30 by volume.