Istaroth

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x9efd…ad00 with our methodology badges per row.

0x9efda3d6354152901fc4706c3b1a9ce50b45ad00·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

143

lifetime

PnL per $

-22%

historical realized

Win rate

59.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.82M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 143 resolved trades · -22% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$2.62M

avg $13.1K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.48M / $1.15M

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 05:21 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.800	$13.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:20 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:32 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.979	$4,894	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 12:26 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.750	$45.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:18 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.913	$28.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 11:20 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:08 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.929	$9,504	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 01:19 PM	Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	SELL YES	0.746	$1,742	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 10:48 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.307	$9,223	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 04:18 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	SELL NO	0.987	$30.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:02 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:28 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.810	$7,878	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.820	$13.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 04:47 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.979	$3,919	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:09 AM	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:07 AM	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.999	$5,540	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:16 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.959	$4,822	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 05:23 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:33 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.130	$1,332	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:58 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.800	$6,584	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:02 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,179	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:52 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:47 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$10.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:38 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$35.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:36 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,381	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:01 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.987	$4,105	— (SELL)
May 31, 02:56 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:55 PM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 02:51 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.971	$5,501	— (SELL)
May 30, 07:21 AM	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,642	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:21 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.963	$4,815	— (SELL)
May 29, 05:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	SELL NO	0.981	$14.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:20 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$2,961	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:20 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	SELL NO	0.993	$1,629	— (SELL)
May 29, 06:56 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	SELL NO	0.993	$9,930	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:45 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.960	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:41 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:40 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$3,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:13 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:01 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:18 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.979	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:31 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:23 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$8,592	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY NO	0.979	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:42 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY NO	0.977	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 09:27 AM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.997	$2,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:56 AM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.995	$9,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:17 AM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:53 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	SELL NO	0.983	$1,579	— (SELL)
May 27, 04:09 AM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.995	$3,482	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:08 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	SELL NO	0.979	$3,353	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:56 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$40.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:59 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:06 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	SELL YES	0.971	$1,154	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:58 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	SELL YES	0.979	$1,147	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:05 PM	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	SELL NO	0.979	$12.4K	— (SELL)
May 26, 09:22 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.967	$9,670	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:43 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:42 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	SELL NO	0.964	$8,298	— (SELL)
May 26, 07:34 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:10 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.969	$1,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 12:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:20 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.966	$7,268	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:17 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:36 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.974	$9,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:25 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.975	$3,900	— (SELL)
May 24, 03:57 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$6,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 03:38 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.959	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 03:36 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.948	$6,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:55 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.960	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:52 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.956	$1,827	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,529	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:43 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.880	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:31 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 05:13 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.948	$4,163	— (SELL)
May 22, 05:33 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.910	$6,307	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:17 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.910	$5,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:42 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,873	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:05 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,901	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 08:05 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.940	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:55 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:08 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:55 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.984	$9,656	— (SELL)
May 20, 04:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.984	$1,646	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:12 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.920	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:50 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.984	$2,952	— (SELL)
May 19, 03:08 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:22 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.960	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:27 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.954	$17.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:15 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:14 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.945	$10.8K	— (SELL)
May 19, 04:13 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:11 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.985	$9,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.954	$7,433	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.880	$5,157	— (SELL)
May 18, 12:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:08 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.870	$6,960	— (SELL)
May 18, 05:16 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.958	$3,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:15 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.979	$4,273	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:57 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.981	$2,257	— (SELL)
May 17, 03:00 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:29 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.980	$6,496	— (SELL)
May 15, 02:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.959	$3,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 12:49 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.959	$3,282	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 05:13 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.981	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 04:17 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$5,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 02:01 PM	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	BUY NO	0.996	$7,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:49 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.951	$5,706	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:49 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,888	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:13 AM	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	BUY NO	0.997	$6,596	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:56 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.970	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 10:39 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.970	$8,605	— (SELL)
May 2, 09:02 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.950	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 10:34 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.971	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 10:34 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.930	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 09:09 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	BUY NO	0.998	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,425	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,499	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 06:38 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 06:35 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 04:33 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	SELL NO	0.938	$3,963	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 04:32 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	SELL NO	0.932	$10.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	SELL NO	0.965	$19.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 04:50 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.989	$38.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 11:55 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.975	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 04:48 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.972	$7,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:13 AM	0x4c5701bc	SELL NO	0.004	$2,669	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 03:13 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.967	$1,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 03:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.961	$10.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 02:18 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.975	$1,077	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 02:18 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.959	$18.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 12:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.960	$46.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 09:41 AM	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL YES	0.998	$4,751	— (SELL)
Apr 5, 04:34 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.990	$7,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 05:26 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.987	$9,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:06 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.988	$2,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:05 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.988	$4,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 03:49 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.988	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 03:41 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.987	$22.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 03:34 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.960	$139.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 4, 03:31 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.962	$44.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 4, 05:15 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.965	$29.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 3, 01:58 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.987	$1,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 01:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.965	$108.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 04:07 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.981	$69.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 04:02 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.980	$31.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:50 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.980	$7,712	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:25 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.977	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:20 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.977	$8,276	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:20 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.967	$8,276	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 01:19 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.979	$3,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 01:17 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.978	$12.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 04:30 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.965	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:52 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.970	$5,449	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:47 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.968	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:47 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.980	$39.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 03:33 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.969	$1,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:00 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.960	$8,104	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:59 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.981	$8,104	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 02:48 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.960	$5,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:26 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.964	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:35 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$13.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:29 PM	0x306d10d4	SELL NO	0.997	$51.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 02:08 PM	0x306d10d4	SELL NO	0.995	$2,488	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 10:09 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.930	$82.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 10:02 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.980	$8,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 09:13 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$24.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:34 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.965	$9,629	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:32 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.962	$2,724	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:28 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.979	$2,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:28 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.979	$4,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:28 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.978	$116.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:27 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.959	$21.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:46 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.964	$3,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:30 AM	0x2821de9f	SELL NO	0.999	$13.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 03:30 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:29 AM	0xf64f880b	SELL NO	0.999	$19.6K	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 05:32 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$57.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:16 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,396	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:16 PM	0xf64f880b	SELL NO	0.999	$73.6K	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 05:15 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$78.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:10 PM	0xf64f880b	SELL NO	0.999	$78.8K	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 04:57 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$44.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 04:54 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY NO	0.997	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 04:53 PM	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 04:52 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY NO	0.997	$40.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 04:51 PM	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL YES	0.690	$4,938	— (SELL)

Markets active in

41 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	23	$772.6K	$-117,165
0x4c5701bc	—	22	$313.4K	+$308.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	7	$192.0K	+$72.3K
0xf64f880b	—	3	$172.0K	$-171,996
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Other	16	$101.2K	+$73.3K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	14	$95.5K	+$41.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	11	$89.3K	+$45.6K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Other	16	$78.7K	+$38.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	5	$74.5K	$-4,105
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Other	3	$53.8K	+$53.8K
0x306d10d4	—	2	$53.5K	$-53,534
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	4	$48.1K	$-21,218
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	9	$45.2K	+$15.0K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	1	$45.0K	$-45,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Other	4	$42.7K	$-23,661
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Other	9	$40.2K	+$16.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	1	$40.0K	+$40.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	3	$36.0K	+$18.8K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Other	6	$31.3K	+$8,199
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Other	1	$30.9K	$-30,873
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Other	3	$28.6K	+$711
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	1	$28.5K	$-28,545
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	4	$28.1K	+$18.3K
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Politics	2	$25.5K	+$25.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Other	2	$25.0K	+$25.0K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Finance	4	$18.1K	+$18.1K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Other	5	$17.1K	+$17.1K
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Politics	2	$14.2K	+$14.2K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Other	2	$13.4K	+$13.4K
0x2821de9f	—	1	$13.1K	$-13,078

Showing top 30 by volume.