Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2

TechEnds Jun 30, 2026View on Polymarket ↗

YES price

6.5¢

current

Total volume

+$30.04M

+$1.78M / 24h

Liquidity

+$871.9K

Whale trades (90d)

153

61 distinct wallets

Whale buy volume

+$2.57M

last 90d, $10K+ trades

Whale sell volume

+$1.11M

last 90d

Net flow

+$1.45M

buy-side dominant

Conviction fires

trades passing wave-34 gate

Top wallets on this market

61 wallets · sorted by net buy

Wallet	Trades	Buy	Sell	Net	PnL/$	Gate
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	25	+$507.7K	+$112.3K	+$395.4K	+623%	🟢
tourists	2	+$159.2K	$0	+$159.2K	-29%	—
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	4	+$140.4K	$0	+$140.4K	-17%	—
mikemoneywire - 20419	2	+$139.8K	$0	+$139.8K	+19%	—
Erasmus.	4	+$128.5K	$0	+$128.5K	-9%	—
suvorov	2	+$99.1K	$0	+$99.1K	+24%	—
polywally	2	+$54.5K	$0	+$54.5K	-34%	—
sdffssdfd	1	+$50.7K	$0	+$50.7K	+0%	—
0xc78	2	+$50.2K	$0	+$50.2K	—	—
mombil	4	+$50.1K	$0	+$50.1K	-5%	—
treesanddreams	3	+$49.0K	$0	+$49.0K	+18%	🟢
yungstalin	5	+$59.9K	+$16.8K	+$43.1K	+5%	—
Tigerofthehood	1	+$40.5K	$0	+$40.5K	-58%	—
timmythewhale	2	+$37.4K	$0	+$37.4K	+5%	—
BettorBeware	1	+$36.6K	$0	+$36.6K	-6%	—
0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954	2	+$36.5K	$0	+$36.5K	-61%	—
betwick	2	+$26.0K	$0	+$26.0K	-11%	—
Egozic86	1	+$25.0K	$0	+$25.0K	-55%	—
ProfessionalPunter	2	+$23.7K	$0	+$23.7K	+23%	🟢
RobertoRubio	1	+$23.3K	$0	+$23.3K	-0%	—
alextalley	2	+$21.2K	$0	+$21.2K	—	—
LeftieFTW	1	+$21.1K	$0	+$21.1K	-38%	—
wan123	1	+$21.0K	$0	+$21.0K	+13%	🟢
WestPark	1	+$19.9K	$0	+$19.9K	+18%	🟢
0xdamocles	1	+$18.2K	$0	+$18.2K	-32%	—

Showing top 25 of 61 by net flow.

Recent whale trades

153 trades · ≥$10K · 90d window

When	Wallet	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 10:21 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.940	+$105.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:11 PM	tourists	BUY NO	0.930	+$133.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:10 PM	scottilicious	BUY NO	0.920	+$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 05:38 PM	Tigerofthehood	BUY NO	0.920	+$40.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:36 PM	EducatedGuess69420	SELL NO	0.770	+$19.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:39 PM	0x6Dc38952A7dC5c6063D71E84aD26919C6050F57e-1775410870880	SELL NO	0.773	+$27.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 07:26 AM	EducatedGuess69420	BUY NO	0.830	+$16.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:35 PM	ProfessionalPunter	BUY NO	0.800	+$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:47 PM	pugdev	SELL NO	0.777	+$13.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:38 PM	ProfessionalPunter	BUY NO	0.800	+$13.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:21 PM	pugdev	SELL NO	0.791	+$32.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 03:38 PM	timmythewhale	BUY NO	0.810	+$11.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:58 PM	alex1734	SELL NO	0.852	+$22.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:51 PM	timmythewhale	BUY NO	0.850	+$25.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:47 AM	0x360d3cbeE47573EB5700B550b5399cC230D8Ca64-1776701670290	BUY NO	0.786	+$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:18 AM	betwick	BUY YES	0.199	+$14.9K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 05:21 AM	Istaroth	SELL NO	0.800	+$13.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:20 AM	Istaroth	BUY NO	0.820	+$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:40 PM	alex1734	BUY NO	0.795	+$35.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:44 PM	wan123	BUY YES	0.210	+$21.0K	Conviction tier
Jun 11, 07:42 PM	0xc78	BUY NO	0.800	+$35.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:50 PM	0x8c66E28FbE7Ede7F57bA6CBc70408DfF442944F3-1777220320442	BUY NO	0.850	+$15.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:45 PM	suvorov	BUY NO	0.840	+$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:42 PM	suvorov	BUY NO	0.832	+$49.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:02 PM	Egozic86	BUY NO	0.850	+$25.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:33 PM	betwick	BUY YES	0.177	+$11.1K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 09:37 AM	RobertoRubio	BUY NO	0.930	+$23.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:55 AM	James000	SELL NO	0.930	+$58.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:30 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	SELL NO	0.930	+$10.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:16 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.940	+$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:48 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.940	+$28.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:10 PM	0xc78	BUY NO	0.930	+$14.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:43 PM	The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	BUY NO	0.920	+$29.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:59 PM	James000	SELL NO	0.910	+$12.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:58 PM	James000	SELL NO	0.910	+$63.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:41 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.920	+$16.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 09:37 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.920	+$28.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 08:42 AM	0x6Dc38952A7dC5c6063D71E84aD26919C6050F57e-1775410870880	BUY NO	0.910	+$35.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:26 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	SELL NO	0.900	+$19.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:16 AM	The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	BUY NO	0.910	+$54.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:03 PM	Arlette	SELL NO	0.890	+$18.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 10:34 AM	mombil	BUY YES	0.100	+$10.8K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 8, 05:21 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.910	+$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:39 AM	0xdamocles	BUY NO	0.910	+$18.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:02 AM	James000	BUY NO	0.900	+$42.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:05 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.890	+$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:05 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.887	+$17.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:38 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.877	+$23.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:23 PM	0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954	BUY NO	0.900	+$26.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:18 PM	0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954	BUY NO	0.880	+$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:57 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.880	+$81.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:59 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.880	+$17.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:40 AM	James000	BUY NO	0.870	+$61.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:04 AM	strike123	BUY NO	0.860	+$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:32 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.860	+$16.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:01 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.860	+$16.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:16 PM	alex1734	SELL NO	0.844	+$20.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 06:06 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.840	+$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:17 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.840	+$21.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:41 PM	peoplearestrange	SELL NO	0.821	+$18.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 02:42 PM	alex1734	BUY NO	0.822	+$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:07 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	SELL NO	0.814	+$18.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Istaroth	SELL NO	0.820	+$13.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	peoplearestrange	SELL NO	0.822	+$49.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 03:50 AM	0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	SELL NO	0.830	+$11.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:02 PM	peoplearestrange	SELL NO	0.820	+$32.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 10:53 PM	peoplearestrange	SELL NO	0.830	+$29.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 09:01 PM	pugdev	SELL NO	0.840	+$19.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:45 PM	alex1734	SELL NO	0.830	+$10.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:56 AM	peoplearestrange	SELL NO	0.840	+$29.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 07:53 AM	PancraceRoyer	SELL NO	0.840	+$12.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:04 PM	treesanddreams	BUY NO	0.839	+$25.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:17 AM	treesanddreams	BUY NO	0.800	+$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:45 AM	treesanddreams	BUY NO	0.800	+$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:22 PM	LeftieFTW	BUY NO	0.800	+$21.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:07 PM	imhome	BUY NO	0.790	+$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 11:00 PM	jwerhor	SELL NO	0.790	+$22.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 11:00 PM	jwerhor	SELL NO	0.800	+$38.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:53 PM	lazercrazer	SELL NO	0.826	+$17.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:57 PM	pugdev	BUY NO	0.830	+$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:49 PM	The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	BUY NO	0.760	+$40.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:43 PM	Moonshot1019	BUY NO	0.760	+$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:01 AM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.750	+$34.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:03 PM	AdrianCronauer	SELL NO	0.684	+$12.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 03:03 PM	AdrianCronauer	SELL NO	0.706	+$25.6K	— (SELL)
May 30, 11:59 PM	The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	BUY NO	0.710	+$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:16 PM	tourists	BUY NO	0.644	+$26.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:50 PM	BrightStars	SELL YES	0.391	+$13.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 02:33 PM	BettorBeware	BUY YES	0.370	+$36.6K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 04:38 AM	BrightStars	BUY YES	0.377	+$14.1K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 28, 04:52 PM	Clicker1	BUY YES	0.371	+$14.1K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 27, 07:15 PM	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	BUY NO	0.590	+$13.8K	—
May 27, 02:55 PM	MB1982	BUY YES	0.518	+$10.0K	—
May 25, 10:59 PM	misko1	SELL YES	0.455	+$10.4K	— (SELL)
May 24, 12:15 PM	Erasmus.	BUY YES	0.570	+$62.0K	—
May 20, 05:37 PM	aenews2	BUY YES	0.348	+$10.3K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 20, 02:25 PM	yungstalin	SELL NO	0.677	+$16.8K	— (SELL)
May 20, 02:15 PM	mombil	BUY YES	0.260	+$10.8K	Cheap band — no rep
May 20, 08:37 AM	sdffssdfd	BUY NO	0.750	+$50.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:13 AM	voidemir	BUY NO	0.700	+$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Showing 100 of 153.

All trades pulled from on-chain Polymarket fills via the Polygon CTF Exchange. Methodology badges apply the same wave-34 classifier as /whales. Full per-wallet audit on /trader/[address].