| Jun 13, 09:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.580 | $1,163 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:05 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.420 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:11 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $3,154 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:59 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:44 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.752 | $3,009 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 11:46 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.727 | $1,429 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:37 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:40 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $4,724 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:38 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $3,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:34 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $3,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.300 | $2,584 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 5, 03:54 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $3,084 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 5, 03:53 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.270 | $1,223 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 5, 03:50 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 12:04 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,141 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 09:21 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:23 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.598 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 24, 03:17 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.417 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 23, 01:27 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $2,208 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:26 AM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.989 | $5,512 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:04 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.970 | $3,643 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:47 PM | Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.245 | $1,400 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 22, 09:46 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.833 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 11:26 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 11:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 10:29 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.812 | $1,624 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 10:58 AM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | SELL YES | 0.850 | $2,513 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:26 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,100 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 02:49 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $2,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 06:36 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,980 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 04:20 PM | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,693 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 11:58 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.749 | $5,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:44 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,845 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $16.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $7,440 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:04 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $4,009 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 03:23 AM | Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.655 | $1,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 09:43 PM | Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,060 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 11, 02:12 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $2,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:02 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,110 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 06:59 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 10:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,168 | —— |
| May 10, 10:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,830 | —— |
| May 10, 09:31 PM | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.388 | $1,008 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 09:15 PM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY YES | 0.454 | $1,934 | —— |
| May 10, 08:58 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $5,107 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:56 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $5,583 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:52 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,602 | —— |
| May 10, 08:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.589 | $1,787 | —— |
| May 10, 08:47 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $7,630 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 03:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $8,888 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:34 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $10.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 03:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $9,208 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:08 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $10.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 03:04 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $2,720 | —— |
| May 10, 02:50 PM | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $2,720 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $3,526 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:12 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $3,540 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.490 | $2,450 | —— |
| May 5, 06:10 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.982 | $1,349 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 11:50 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 4, 04:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,830 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 06:37 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,810 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 11:20 PM | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.668 | $2,257 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 04:02 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.130 | $3,039 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 04:00 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.087 | $2,738 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 10:35 AM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.478 | $1,319 | —— |
| Apr 2, 01:01 AM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.661 | $1,021 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $17.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:34 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $22.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 06:17 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 10:47 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $1,348 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 05:46 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 05:25 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 02:54 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.250 | $1,000 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Mar 29, 06:44 PM | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.647 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 09:48 PM | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,015 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |