| Jun 11, 06:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $25.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:05 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 30, 05:30 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.725 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 10:33 PM | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 16, 10:32 PM | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY YES | 0.432 | $1,151 | —— |
| May 16, 09:50 PM | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 10:29 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $1,316 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 05:20 AM | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | BUY YES | 0.558 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 3, 10:45 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $15.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 10:44 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $15.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 07:47 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $5,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 07:46 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,990 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 07:27 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $3,523 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 07:24 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $3,082 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 05:13 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 05:13 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,259 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 04:47 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,947 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 02:43 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,007 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 10:54 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $3,738 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 30, 12:51 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $3,964 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 08:59 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $3,888 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 08:07 PM | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL NO | 0.958 | $13.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 01:28 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $9,051 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 01:28 PM | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $5,769 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 09:50 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.945 | $24.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 08:40 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 08:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.771 | $4,086 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 07:59 PM | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.816 | $5,000 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 11:57 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,251 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 11:57 AM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL NO | 0.958 | $3,251 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 11:32 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $7,137 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 11:31 PM | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.844 | $6,891 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 11:19 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.837 | $2,399 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 11:13 PM | 0x10d4b55e | SELL NO | 0.995 | $13.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 07:14 PM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL NO | 0.963 | $1,059 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 06:44 PM | 0x68beecc8 | SELL NO | 0.960 | $1,415 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 06:40 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $1,202 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 06:08 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.862 | $3,295 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 06:06 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,434 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 06:05 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $4,434 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 06:04 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $6,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 06:03 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.889 | $6,379 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 08:31 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,194 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 08:31 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.991 | $4,194 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 08:26 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.981 | $4,198 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 08:25 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.992 | $4,198 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 07:52 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.980 | $8,421 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 07:51 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.995 | $8,421 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 12:44 AM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $6,718 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 11:28 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $6,035 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 08:06 PM | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.891 | $6,740 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 08:05 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $6,890 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 08:30 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.710 | $6,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 08:27 PM | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.911 | $6,890 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:34 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.586 | $1,700 | —— |
| Apr 7, 10:34 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.823 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:01 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.643 | $1,713 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:01 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,714 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:00 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.730 | $3,409 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:00 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.825 | $3,408 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:27 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.882 | $2,981 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 08:24 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $6,445 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 07:59 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.900 | $6,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 07:58 PM | 0x10d4b55e | SELL NO | 0.881 | $6,860 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 07:38 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.974 | $1,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 09:43 AM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.960 | $7,473 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 09:43 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.803 | $7,470 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 09:39 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,470 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 09:38 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.798 | $2,473 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 09:36 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $9,375 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 09:36 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $6,113 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 09:35 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.789 | $3,262 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 09:04 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,070 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 01:06 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 01:06 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:08 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $3,998 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:08 PM | 1569627 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $8,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:07 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.987 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 11:31 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,980 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 09:29 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,333 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 10:10 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.981 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 05:13 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.967 | $6,935 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 01:36 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $2,307 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 01:33 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $3,076 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 01:32 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.966 | $4,104 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 10:39 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $5,128 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 12:32 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.980 | $7,307 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 10:23 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.420 | $1,200 | —— |
| Mar 31, 10:23 PM | EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,563 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 11:34 PM | EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,556 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 12:01 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.875 | $1,920 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 12:11 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.885 | $1,853 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:46 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,001 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:44 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,335 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:36 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,780 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 12:32 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,571 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 10:53 PM | 0x337e5c84 | BUY NO | 0.992 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 07:35 PM | 1466015 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 07:35 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $4,410 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 07:34 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $11.6K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 07:09 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,526 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 12:53 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $2,034 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 12:51 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $2,776 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 08:28 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:25 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:24 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.080 | $1,104 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:21 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,242 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 23, 11:18 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 09:39 PM | 0xbbdff003 | SELL NO | 0.965 | $1,396 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 09:29 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.891 | $2,505 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 09:28 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.894 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |