alex1734

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x7c8d…f317 with our methodology badges per row.

0x7c8d207691c902d11198592533f7614cfca4f317·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-41%

historical realized

Win rate

52.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$449.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 30 resolved trades · -41% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$652.1K

avg $13.6K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$340.9K / $311.2K

net direction

Recent trades

last 48 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 01:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.852	$22.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 11:18 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.777	$5,441	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 11:18 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.803	$7,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:03 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.749	$7,486	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 10:00 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.773	$7,734	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 08:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.795	$35.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 01:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.844	$20.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 02:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.822	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.830	$10.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 11:27 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.812	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 03:51 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.914	$29.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.952	$45.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:02 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.964	$4,372	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:09 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.963	$28.6K	— (SELL)
May 20, 08:32 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.944	$28.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.948	$19.6K	— (SELL)
May 13, 01:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.938	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:37 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.900	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.982	$28.1K	— (SELL)
May 7, 08:09 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.943	$27.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:08 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.710	$4,258	— (SELL)
May 6, 07:56 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.970	$18.7K	— (SELL)
May 5, 04:14 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.850	$5,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 11:08 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,843	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 08:58 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.930	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 05:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.790	$5,530	— (SELL)
May 2, 07:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.820	$5,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 05:05 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.940	$9,400	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 05:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$9,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 05:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.996	$22.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 24, 06:40 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.967	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.832	$20.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 08:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.832	$20.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 04:49 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.821	$22.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 20, 04:26 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.720	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 05:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.736	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 04:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.829	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 07:11 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.742	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 06:40 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.730	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 11:08 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$2,001	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 11:08 AM	0x10d4b55e	SELL NO	0.965	$18.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 07:44 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.907	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 09:47 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.930	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 08:11 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	SELL YES	0.760	$4,691	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 08:23 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	BUY YES	0.810	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 11:25 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.688	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 10:41 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,781	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:36 AM	0x4befb52f	BUY NO	0.944	$8,000	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

9 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	12	$194.8K	+$78.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	10	$145.4K	$-1,392
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Tech	10	$139.3K	$-57,382
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	7	$110.0K	$-2,521
0x10d4b55e	—	3	$36.1K	$-989
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Politics	2	$9,691	+$309
0x4befb52f	—	1	$8,000	+$8,000
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Other	1	$5,000	+$5,000
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	2	$3,782	$-220