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Arlette

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x3022…59c1 with our methodology badges per row.

0x3022ebb3d83ba8e4d8a272d0e28174cfa49359c1·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
36
lifetime
PnL per $
-38%
historical realized
Win rate
55.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$202.6K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 36 resolved trades · -38% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
55
Distinct markets
27
Volume (90d)
$333.2K
avg $6,058 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$194.0K / $139.2K
net direction

Recent trades

last 55 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 13, 07:05 AMWill Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?BUY YES0.790$1,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:49 AMWill Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.600$7,800
Jun 13, 06:47 AMWill Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.720$7,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.890$18.8K— (SELL)
May 26, 02:33 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.590$2,467
May 26, 02:32 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.580$4,696
May 26, 02:29 PM0x90e83bc1SELL NO0.696$1,422— (SELL)
May 26, 02:26 PMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.987$9,874— (SELL)
May 25, 05:50 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY NO0.987$6,746Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 11:56 AMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?SELL NO0.988$3,257— (SELL)
May 10, 11:54 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?SELL NO0.987$22.0K— (SELL)
May 4, 08:10 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?BUY NO0.966$4,155Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 08:01 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.980$4,898Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 07:58 PMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?BUY NO0.985$1,386Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 07:11 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.968$4,838Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:58 PMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.979$9,788Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:33 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?BUY NO0.970$17.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:12 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.990$3,680Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 05:26 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL NO0.790$4,780— (SELL)
Apr 24, 02:52 PMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.977$33.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 02:41 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL NO0.994$14.9K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 09:26 PM0x7ed87d93BUY NO0.980$2,056Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:15 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.990$6,930Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:10 PM0xab73f040BUY NO0.993$2,974Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:02 PM0x1f38f97bBUY YES0.986$1,974Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 06:15 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,507— (SELL)
Apr 15, 06:04 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.700$1,611— (SELL)
Apr 15, 06:02 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.700$1,466— (SELL)
Apr 15, 06:00 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.688$2,753— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:58 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,296— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:57 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,296— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:56 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,296— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:54 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.693$1,108— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:51 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,275— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:51 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,417— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:49 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,275— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:48 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,015— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:47 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,304— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:46 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,262— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:45 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.708$1,262— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:43 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.704$1,689— (SELL)
Apr 15, 05:41 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.704$2,818— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:57 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.790$40.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 09:53 AMWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?SELL NO0.956$1,911— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:49 AMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.968$1,545— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:48 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL NO0.982$2,455— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:47 AM0x75158a53SELL NO0.857$4,182— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:44 AMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.980$6,092— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:43 AMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?SELL NO0.990$5,644— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:42 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.890$8,010— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:41 AMWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL NO0.913$8,673— (SELL)
Apr 9, 08:51 AMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.992$6,495Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 08:50 AMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.981$6,098Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 08:38 AMGreece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?BUY NO0.950$9,079Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 08:37 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.900$8,100Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

27 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics18$65.9K+$14.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Tech3$43.6K$-403
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Other1$33.9K+$33.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech3$25.9K$-11,606
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Other3$24.3K$-10,432
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics2$19.7K$-86
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other2$16.1K+$90
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Tech2$12.2K+$6
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?Other2$12.1K+$851
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?Other1$9,079+$9,079
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Tech1$8,673$-8,673
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$7,800+$7,800
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$7,200+$7,200
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Other1$6,746+$6,746
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other1$4,898+$4,898
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Other1$4,838+$4,838
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other1$4,780$-4,779
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?Other2$4,642$-1,871
0x75158a531$4,182$-4,182
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Other1$3,680+$3,680
0xab73f0401$2,974+$2,974
0x7ed87d931$2,056+$2,056
0x1f38f97b1$1,974+$1,974
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Tech1$1,911$-1,911
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Tech1$1,545$-1,545
0x90e83bc11$1,422$-1,422
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Other1$1,042+$1,042