pugdev

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xb8a7…7674 with our methodology badges per row.

0xb8a717fed80eab7258a9ff6ba9961908691d7674·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-34%

historical realized

Win rate

44.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$545.5K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 56 resolved trades · -34% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

147

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.37M

avg $9,352 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$682.7K / $692.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 147 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 04:48 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	SELL NO	0.943	$8,998	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.777	$13.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:22 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.829	$20.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:21 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.791	$32.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:54 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.850	$9,220	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$5,502	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,958	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:34 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.840	$5,378	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 02:34 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.850	$2,128	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:35 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,836	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:27 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.858	$1,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:26 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.914	$5,109	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:27 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:27 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.890	$8,900	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:19 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.888	$1,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:18 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.892	$1,517	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:17 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,452	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:16 PM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	SELL NO	0.952	$1,418	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:15 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$4,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:14 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.869	$2,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:14 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.977	$6,386	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 09:02 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:01 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$4,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:01 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.840	$19.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 02:57 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$4,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:53 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.919	$3,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:52 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.909	$5,743	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:50 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,097	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:49 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,132	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:49 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	SELL NO	0.993	$9,930	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 02:48 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,981	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.850	$8,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.850	$6,565	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.840	$5,031	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:07 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	SELL NO	0.992	$20.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.840	$3,263	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.830	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:56 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	SELL NO	0.993	$14.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:24 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,419	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:24 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:23 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,911	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:21 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$9,242	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,101	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.818	$3,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:15 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.810	$6,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:11 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:11 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.869	$1,602	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:08 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:58 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	BUY NO	0.937	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:56 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	SELL NO	0.990	$15.8K	— (SELL)
May 27, 11:18 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$7,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:17 PM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:15 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$8,418	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:15 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.988	$17.2K	— (SELL)
May 27, 06:05 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.839	$9,315	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:04 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.985	$2,133	— (SELL)
May 27, 06:04 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$7,267	— (SELL)
May 27, 03:36 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,090	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:35 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.819	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:35 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.809	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:34 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.985	$24.6K	— (SELL)
May 27, 01:59 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.937	$4,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:10 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.829	$2,404	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:08 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$2,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:06 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	SELL NO	0.995	$4,611	— (SELL)
May 26, 08:49 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$3,683	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:49 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,187	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:46 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.760	$6,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:34 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.869	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:33 PM	Kash Patel out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,214	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:31 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,679	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:08 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.836	$4,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:05 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,079	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:00 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.823	$5,061	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:45 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,447	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:54 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$13.3K	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:54 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$29.6K	— (SELL)
May 25, 05:19 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:02 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.950	$4,752	— (SELL)
May 20, 10:01 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.951	$7,889	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:32 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.710	$2,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 09:31 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.700	$4,739	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 09:30 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.952	$9,416	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:29 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.954	$1,908	— (SELL)
May 20, 09:28 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	SELL NO	0.955	$1,528	— (SELL)
May 16, 09:04 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.951	$2,425	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:03 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.506	$2,470	— (SELL)
May 16, 04:17 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.740	$3,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:56 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.695	$2,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:55 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	SELL NO	0.840	$2,586	— (SELL)
May 8, 05:26 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL NO	0.710	$3,757	— (SELL)
May 5, 10:45 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,577	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 10:45 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 09:41 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.875	$1,247	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 04:29 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$3,805	— (SELL)
May 3, 02:04 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 03:20 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,420	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 12:24 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.890	$30.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 12:29 AM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:20 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,540	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:19 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	SELL NO	0.995	$13.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 23, 06:44 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$23.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 06:38 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.910	$43.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 22, 07:14 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$17.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 07:02 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.880	$27.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 07:01 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$22.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 06:55 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$73.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 15, 10:36 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 03:20 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,731	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 10:33 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	BUY NO	0.878	$3,273	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 10:32 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$4,145	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 07:32 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	BUY NO	0.878	$1,010	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 06:51 PM	0xf6add9bf	SELL NO	0.930	$1,934	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 04:14 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$6,010	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 04:04 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,799	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 04:03 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$18.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:59 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,173	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:23 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,537	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:01 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.910	$2,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 07:58 PM	0x773abaa5	SELL NO	0.730	$2,186	— (SELL)
Apr 3, 06:06 PM	0x773abaa5	BUY NO	0.940	$2,814	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 05:08 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY NO	0.140	$2,800	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 04:57 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,044	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 04:56 PM	0x10d4b55e	BUY NO	0.920	$25.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 04:55 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.810	$8,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 04:54 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.850	$34.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 3, 04:40 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY NO	0.800	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 04:34 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.860	$16.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 07:29 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.870	$14.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 07:28 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$14.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 07:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,523	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 07:27 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.940	$2,554	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 03:49 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.890	$6,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:48 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.890	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:46 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.960	$3,510	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 03:41 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.962	$1,330	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 12:40 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.955	$2,094	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:39 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.954	$1,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:38 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.955	$1,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:36 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	BUY NO	0.880	$2,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:36 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.956	$6,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:29 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.840	$33.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:27 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$72.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 12:20 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$21.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 06:01 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.930	$67.9K	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 06:01 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.840	$71.7K	— (SELL)

Markets active in

28 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	11	$256.4K	$-74,613
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Other	15	$223.5K	$-15,764
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	8	$197.7K	+$2,038
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Other	35	$162.4K	+$83.3K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	15	$130.5K	+$981
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Tech	11	$95.4K	$-47,553
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	3	$72.7K	$-72,730
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Other	4	$32.5K	+$6,265
0x10d4b55e	—	2	$27.2K	+$27.2K
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Other	2	$25.8K	+$25.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	2	$17.7K	$-100
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Other	1	$15.8K	+$15.8K
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Other	6	$15.1K	+$4,900
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Tech	6	$14.1K	+$6,491
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	2	$13.5K	+$13.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Other	2	$13.4K	+$4,189
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Tech	2	$11.6K	$-6,378
0x306d10d4	—	4	$11.4K	+$11.4K
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Tech	2	$6,989	+$6,989
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	2	$5,004	$-2,510
0x773abaa5	—	2	$5,000	+$629
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Other	2	$4,795	$-313
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Other	2	$4,719	$-453
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Other	2	$2,802	$-33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Other	1	$2,800	+$2,800
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	1	$2,274	+$2,274
0xf6add9bf	—	1	$1,934	$-1,934
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	1	$1,517	$-1,517