scottilicious

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x000d…758e with our methodology badges per row.

0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-43%

historical realized

Win rate

49.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$728.6K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 70 resolved trades · -43% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

151

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.33M

avg $8,836 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$765.2K / $569.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 151 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 12, 03:23 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.845	$5,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:23 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.993	$4,059	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 03:03 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.836	$5,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:03 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.993	$4,965	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 03:24 AM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.932	$28.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 03:16 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.832	$40.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 03:14 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.983	$4,541	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 03:14 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.976	$76.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 04:02 AM	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.974	$1,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:07 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.820	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:03 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.858	$8,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:30 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.838	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 08:43 AM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.928	$18.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 07:31 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 06:44 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$6,129	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 02:25 AM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.918	$9,180	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:02 AM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	SELL NO	0.932	$10.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 11:02 PM	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	BUY YES	0.849	$5,217	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:10 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,112	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 08:09 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,311	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 08:04 PM	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	BUY YES	0.833	$1,667	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 07:56 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,996	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 02:41 AM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 10:03 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.703	$7,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 10:03 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$5,982	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 10:02 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,990	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:21 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$4,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:32 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.971	$3,132	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:32 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.970	$8,119	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 04:47 AM	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:28 PM	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:28 PM	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	BUY NO	0.789	$1,169	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:24 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$6,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:23 PM	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$16.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.964	$71.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 01:13 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.810	$8,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:29 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.966	$6,436	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:52 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.962	$1,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:52 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.962	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:50 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.962	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:50 PM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$12.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 08:49 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL NO	0.991	$15.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 08:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$7,315	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:38 PM	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.961	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:39 AM	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.951	$4,454	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:31 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.962	$9,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:06 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$36.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:14 PM	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.916	$2,931	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:14 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:09 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 07:32 AM	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$6,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:30 AM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$2,623	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:12 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$5,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:52 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$6,251	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:55 PM	0x876047c0	SELL NO	0.920	$1,510	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY YES	0.750	$3,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:35 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY YES	0.780	$5,913	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:29 PM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.912	$7,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:25 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.965	$8,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:23 PM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:16 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.808	$4,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:35 AM	0x876047c0	BUY NO	0.923	$6,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.849	$8,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:30 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$8,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:27 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.820	$4,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:17 PM	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.372	$12.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 04:09 PM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.820	$24.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:38 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.660	$3,297	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:30 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.648	$2,628	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:13 PM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.994	$15.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:35 PM	0x583a5056	BUY YES	0.968	$4,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:34 PM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.995	$2,045	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:29 PM	0x9af5f845	BUY NO	0.982	$2,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:39 AM	0x9af5f845	BUY NO	0.982	$1,853	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:38 AM	0x9af5f845	BUY NO	0.980	$1,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:38 AM	0x583a5056	BUY YES	0.965	$1,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:37 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL YES	0.998	$8,456	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 05:43 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.986	$5,932	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:22 AM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$14.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:20 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.901	$19.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 05:20 AM	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$37.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:19 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.901	$4,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:33 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.926	$2,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:24 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.895	$2,738	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:34 AM	0x50b747a9	BUY YES	0.926	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:35 PM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:33 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.684	$1,557	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:07 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.903	$2,675	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:06 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$7,390	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:06 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.927	$10.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:40 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.710	$1,088	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:07 AM	0xfbac3801	BUY YES	0.893	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:58 AM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.684	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:40 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.810	$4,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:39 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.961	$7,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:38 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.865	$2,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:25 AM	0x4d1ee0c0	BUY NO	0.983	$34.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:03 PM	0x4d1ee0c0	BUY NO	0.978	$3,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:42 PM	0x4d1ee0c0	BUY NO	0.979	$8,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:41 PM	0x4d1ee0c0	BUY NO	0.963	$7,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:46 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.708	$2,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:51 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY YES	0.500	$17.5K	—
May 23, 02:01 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.985	$3,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.984	$8,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:57 AM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.993	$11.9K	— (SELL)
May 22, 11:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.884	$9,803	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:49 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.993	$9,930	— (SELL)
May 22, 10:23 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.990	$9,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:23 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 10:16 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.660	$3,266	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:16 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.670	$1,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:12 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 05:05 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.909	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:04 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.994	$11.9K	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:39 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.928	$9,278	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:38 PM	0x789c947a	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:34 PM	0x53098776	BUY NO	0.929	$3,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 11:31 PM	0x11d4960a	BUY YES	0.916	$5,104	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:05 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.882	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:23 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.710	$4,725	— (SELL)
May 18, 04:23 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY YES	0.610	$5,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$4,100	— (SELL)
May 16, 11:09 PM	0xeee445be	BUY YES	0.950	$9,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:08 PM	0x5814bf23	BUY NO	0.945	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:33 PM	0x78547b8a	BUY NO	0.900	$9,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:55 PM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.905	$1,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:26 PM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.879	$3,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:53 PM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.970	$1,332	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:48 PM	0xb0041709	BUY NO	0.970	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:15 PM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:03 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.934	$2,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:02 PM	0x79e7d16f	SELL NO	0.986	$2,312	— (SELL)
May 13, 01:04 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 01:00 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.997	$4,985	— (SELL)
May 13, 12:58 PM	0xffe381a8	SELL NO	0.997	$4,985	— (SELL)
May 13, 12:58 PM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.999	$5,109	— (SELL)
May 13, 06:15 AM	0x6cf5831f	BUY YES	0.889	$4,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 06:10 AM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
May 12, 02:38 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.894	$7,151	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 07:15 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.778	$3,531	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 07:12 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.755	$2,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 11:47 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.918	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:17 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.918	$4,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 03:10 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$2,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 AM	0xffe381a8	BUY NO	0.983	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:13 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.956	$9,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:53 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.954	$4,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 11:21 PM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.780	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 05:52 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.974	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:26 AM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.748	$8,109	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

61 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	5	$113.0K	$-39,186
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	3	$90.8K	$-51,285
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	6	$81.8K	$-94
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	3	$76.5K	$-76,549
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	11	$72.8K	+$72.8K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	8	$65.6K	$-7,281
0x789c947a	—	6	$63.6K	$-63,594
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$55.7K	$-220
0x4d1ee0c0	—	4	$55.4K	+$55.4K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	4	$49.5K	+$49.5K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	5	$40.1K	$-206
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	1	$37.4K	$-37,365
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Other	4	$28.1K	+$7,591
0x53098776	—	3	$22.1K	+$22.1K
0xb0041709	—	1	$21.8K	+$21.8K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	3	$21.8K	+$21.8K
0xffe381a8	—	3	$20.7K	+$756
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	3	$20.5K	$-8,518
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Other	2	$18.9K	+$18.9K
0x4ba34832	—	1	$17.5K	+$17.5K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Other	3	$17.5K	+$17.5K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	4	$16.9K	+$16.9K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	3	$16.8K	+$16.8K
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Other	3	$15.5K	$-2,588
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	1	$15.0K	$-15,040
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Other	2	$15.0K	+$15.0K
0x876047c0	—	3	$14.9K	+$11.9K
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	2	$13.8K	+$13.8K
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Tech	2	$13.6K	$-3,288
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	2	$13.3K	+$1,353

Showing top 30 by volume.