scottilicious

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x000d…758e with our methodology badges per row.

0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

125

lifetime

PnL per $

-25%

historical realized

Win rate

71.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.33M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 125 resolved trades · -25% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.70M

avg $8,504 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.11M / $589.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 07:06 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$36.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:14 PM	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.916	$2,931	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:14 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$12.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:09 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 07:32 AM	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$6,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:30 AM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$2,623	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:12 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$5,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:52 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$6,251	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:55 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,510	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY YES	0.750	$3,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:35 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY YES	0.780	$5,913	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:29 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	BUY NO	0.912	$7,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:25 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.965	$8,714	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:23 PM	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:16 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.808	$4,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:35 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	BUY NO	0.923	$6,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:42 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.849	$8,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:30 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$8,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:27 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	BUY YES	0.820	$4,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:17 PM	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.372	$12.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 04:09 PM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.820	$24.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:38 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.660	$3,297	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 07:30 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.648	$2,628	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:13 PM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.994	$15.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:35 PM	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.968	$4,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:34 PM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.995	$2,045	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:29 PM	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:39 AM	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,853	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:38 AM	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:38 AM	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.965	$1,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:37 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL YES	0.998	$8,456	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 05:43 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.986	$5,932	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 06:22 AM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$14.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:20 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.901	$19.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 05:20 AM	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$37.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:19 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.901	$4,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:33 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.926	$2,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:24 AM	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.895	$2,738	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:34 AM	Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY YES	0.926	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:35 PM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:33 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.684	$1,557	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:07 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.903	$2,675	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:06 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$7,390	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:06 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.927	$10.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:40 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.710	$1,088	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:07 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.893	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:58 AM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.684	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:40 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.810	$4,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:39 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.961	$7,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:38 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.865	$2,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:25 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.983	$34.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:03 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$3,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:42 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.979	$8,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:41 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.963	$7,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:46 PM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.708	$2,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:51 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY YES	0.500	$17.5K	—
May 23, 02:01 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.985	$3,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 02:00 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.984	$8,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:57 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.993	$11.9K	— (SELL)
May 22, 11:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.884	$9,803	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:49 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.993	$9,930	— (SELL)
May 22, 10:23 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$9,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:23 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 10:16 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.660	$3,266	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:16 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.670	$1,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:12 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 05:05 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.909	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 05:04 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$11.9K	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:39 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.928	$9,278	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:38 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:34 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.929	$3,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 11:31 PM	Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	BUY YES	0.916	$5,104	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:05 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.882	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 03:23 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.710	$4,725	— (SELL)
May 18, 04:23 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY YES	0.610	$5,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:20 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.820	$4,100	— (SELL)
May 16, 11:09 PM	Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Republican Senate primary?	BUY YES	0.950	$9,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:08 PM	Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Republican Senate primary?	BUY NO	0.945	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:33 PM	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$9,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:55 PM	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	BUY NO	0.905	$1,909	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:26 PM	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	BUY NO	0.879	$3,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:53 PM	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,332	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:48 PM	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:15 PM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:03 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.934	$2,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:02 PM	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	SELL NO	0.986	$2,312	— (SELL)
May 13, 01:04 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 01:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$4,985	— (SELL)
May 13, 12:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.997	$4,985	— (SELL)
May 13, 12:58 PM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.999	$5,109	— (SELL)
May 13, 06:15 AM	Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	BUY YES	0.889	$4,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 06:10 AM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
May 12, 02:38 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.894	$7,151	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 07:15 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.778	$3,531	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 07:12 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.755	$2,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 11:47 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.918	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:17 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.918	$4,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 03:10 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.949	$2,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:20 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.983	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:13 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.956	$9,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:53 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.954	$4,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 11:21 PM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.780	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 05:52 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.974	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:26 AM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.748	$8,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 09:09 PM	Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	BUY YES	0.824	$4,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 05:47 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.968	$30.1K	— (SELL)
May 5, 03:46 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.841	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:45 PM	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.963	$13.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 01:50 AM	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.961	$9,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:59 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:54 AM	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:44 AM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,630	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:32 AM	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY NO	0.680	$2,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:32 AM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.688	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:21 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.974	$34.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:21 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.973	$19.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:17 PM	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,273	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.964	$17.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:11 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.971	$14.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:29 PM	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,557	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:26 AM	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BUY YES	0.730	$6,499	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 03:23 AM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.760	$7,399	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 12:10 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.840	$1,648	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 11:53 PM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.762	$5,704	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 12:22 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 12:11 AM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.707	$1,793	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 08:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.999	$30.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 04:18 AM	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	BUY YES	0.708	$3,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:12 AM	Kash Patel out by December 31?	BUY YES	0.769	$4,847	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 03:37 PM	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$3,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 04:17 PM	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 03:51 PM	0x5c2e6aef	SELL YES	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 24, 03:48 PM	0x5c2e6aef	SELL YES	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 24, 12:38 AM	0x5c2e6aef	SELL YES	0.999	$12.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 11:01 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	$2,349	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:50 PM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,494	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 03:41 PM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY YES	0.973	$8,788	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:21 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.567	$4,255	— (SELL)
Apr 20, 10:16 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.606	$1,208	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 11:05 PM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY YES	0.793	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 03:53 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$21.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 05:45 PM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY YES	0.815	$4,869	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 04:03 PM	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$29.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:14 AM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.850	$9,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:23 PM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY YES	0.904	$9,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:18 PM	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	BUY YES	0.976	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:18 PM	0x5c2e6aef	BUY YES	0.902	$3,759	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:45 PM	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	BUY YES	0.981	$29.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:44 PM	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	BUY YES	0.940	$5,027	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:43 PM	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	BUY YES	0.967	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:19 AM	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.954	$5,365	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:47 AM	0x601d6370	BUY NO	0.971	$3,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:47 AM	0x601d6370	BUY NO	0.966	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:58 PM	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BUY YES	0.859	$22.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:31 PM	0x601d6370	BUY NO	0.960	$3,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:31 PM	0x601d6370	BUY NO	0.945	$9,631	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:36 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.965	$6,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:25 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.702	$1,295	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 02:25 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.715	$2,919	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 02:10 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.746	$4,845	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 02:10 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.762	$9,549	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 08:05 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.798	$1,351	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 08:04 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.801	$3,097	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 08:04 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.801	$4,102	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 08:03 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.804	$17.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 07:59 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.834	$8,338	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 08:29 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.864	$2,415	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 07:34 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.985	$29.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 05:33 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.977	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 04:50 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.956	$3,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 04:15 AM	Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.952	$5,205	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 04:04 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.953	$4,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 03:53 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.940	$17.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 03:37 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.957	$5,914	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 03:25 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.947	$3,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 03:25 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.943	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 03:19 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.941	$9,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 01:20 AM	Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.931	$5,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:57 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.947	$4,613	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 10:15 PM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.952	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 07:53 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL NO	0.996	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 07:50 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL YES	0.995	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:53 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.854	$15.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:09 PM	0xfcde02af	SELL YES	0.850	$1,689	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:08 PM	0xa312499c	SELL NO	0.840	$9,244	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:08 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL NO	0.840	$2,481	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:07 PM	0xce4b3c1a	SELL YES	0.910	$8,163	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 03:06 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL YES	0.836	$11.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 12:55 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.870	$3,610	— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:19 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$4,428	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 06:17 AM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,334	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 05:05 AM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY YES	0.777	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 05:03 AM	0xce4b3c1a	BUY YES	0.864	$7,537	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 05:02 AM	0xfae2e410	BUY NO	0.968	$3,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:57 AM	0xfcde02af	BUY YES	0.780	$1,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:56 AM	0xa312499c	BUY NO	0.780	$7,548	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:37 AM	0x93908e18	BUY NO	0.935	$2,815	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:36 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.969	$3,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:11 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL NO	0.840	$2,625	— (SELL)

Markets active in

69 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	20	$154.4K	$-10,673
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	10	$138.4K	+$11.2K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	4	$97.6K	$-55,491
0x5c2e6aef	—	8	$88.9K	$-15,581
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	6	$80.9K	+$715
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	6	$74.3K	+$74.3K
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	4	$73.0K	$-1,762
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	11	$72.8K	+$72.8K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	4	$55.4K	+$55.4K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	7	$53.1K	+$5,134
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Other	4	$52.7K	+$52.7K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Other	3	$42.1K	$-21,518
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	4	$40.4K	$-25,516
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	5	$40.1K	$-206
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	6	$35.8K	+$35.8K
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Other	6	$29.4K	$-29,428
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Sports	1	$29.1K	+$29.1K
0x601d6370	—	4	$28.6K	+$28.6K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Other	3	$24.7K	$-20,068
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	5	$24.7K	$-4,331
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Sports	2	$23.4K	+$23.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Other	3	$22.1K	+$22.1K
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Other	1	$21.8K	+$21.8K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	3	$21.8K	+$21.8K
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Politics	4	$18.3K	+$18.3K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	1	$17.5K	+$17.5K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Other	3	$17.5K	+$17.5K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	3	$16.8K	+$16.8K
0xa312499c	—	2	$16.8K	$-1,696
0xce4b3c1a	—	2	$15.7K	$-625

Showing top 30 by volume.