tourists

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc6dd…4b9f with our methodology badges per row.

0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

185

lifetime

PnL per $

-22%

historical realized

Win rate

69.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.60M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 185 resolved trades · -22% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$2.09M

avg $10.4K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.49M / $596.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 12:03 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.980	$9,322	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:23 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.981	$9,605	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:14 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,674	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:09 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.950	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:07 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,691	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:07 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.890	$5,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:58 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.860	$2,313	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:58 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.820	$3,646	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:41 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 05:20 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.970	$2,434	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:45 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.919	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:01 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.954	$8,447	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:31 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.950	$13.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:50 PM	Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?	BUY NO	0.895	$1,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:11 PM	Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	BUY NO	0.891	$4,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:11 PM	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 09:01 PM	Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	BUY YES	0.910	$2,567	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:57 PM	Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	BUY YES	0.919	$1,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:56 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.640	$1,941	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 05:12 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,129	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:10 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL YES	0.611	$5,749	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:56 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,896	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 05:30 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 05:02 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	SELL YES	0.988	$1,185	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 05:01 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	SELL YES	0.991	$1,413	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 04:47 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	SELL YES	0.995	$2,960	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 04:36 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.059	$1,417	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 04:30 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.060	$1,441	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 02:31 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$5,302	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:31 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$3,390	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:31 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,214	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:31 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$6,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:52 AM	Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,258	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:20 AM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL YES	0.998	$49.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 12:20 AM	Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	BUY YES	0.999	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 12:12 AM	Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	BUY YES	0.975	$1,787	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 11:57 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.999	$199.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 05:45 PM	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY NO	0.932	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:51 PM	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY NO	0.918	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 03:11 PM	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY NO	0.935	$4,460	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 03:07 PM	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	BUY YES	0.909	$2,293	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 05:59 AM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 05:40 AM	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	BUY YES	0.957	$31.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:00 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	BUY NO	0.957	$5,564	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 03:38 AM	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	BUY YES	0.955	$4,368	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 03:38 AM	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	BUY YES	0.949	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:33 AM	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,954	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:31 AM	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.956	$4,883	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 01:30 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,565	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 08:33 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$31.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:30 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:02 PM	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.780	$14.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 11:18 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,882	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:06 PM	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	BUY NO	0.999	$99.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:04 PM	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	SELL YES	0.910	$3,235	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 08:15 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.966	$2,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:03 PM	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,752	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:25 PM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	BUY YES	0.710	$3,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:35 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.600	$1,199	—
Jun 30, 05:47 PM	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?	BUY YES	0.978	$1,141	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:18 PM	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.820	$2,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 04:20 AM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	SELL NO	0.622	$2,962	— (SELL)
Jun 30, 03:04 AM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	SELL NO	0.768	$4,999	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 10:04 PM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.775	$8,039	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:18 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.918	$2,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:20 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY NO	0.600	$2,643	—
Jun 25, 04:59 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.510	$6,883	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 04:59 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.677	$14.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 25, 03:34 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.700	$3,351	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 05:34 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY NO	0.580	$4,273	—
Jun 24, 04:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.954	$3,595	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:43 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL NO	0.130	$2,170	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 07:53 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.940	$2,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:53 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY NO	0.810	$4,388	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:52 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY NO	0.660	$3,585	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:30 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY NO	0.641	$1,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:15 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,217	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:21 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.820	$1,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 03:42 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:48 AM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.840	$8,400	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 07:11 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$133.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.810	$3,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 11:21 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.967	$17.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,154	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.600	$3,152	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:00 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.975	$1,883	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:00 PM	0x2cd24d17	SELL NO	0.977	$5,114	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:54 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.845	$5,549	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:13 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.970	$5,125	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:17 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL NO	0.993	$97.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 10:46 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$4,290	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:46 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.770	$4,641	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:46 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.760	$7,417	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 09:31 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.690	$1,139	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 09:08 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.695	$2,021	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 08:27 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.941	$2,672	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 08:05 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.944	$4,106	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:22 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.870	$2,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:18 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.810	$3,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:04 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:00 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.938	$5,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:59 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.919	$2,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:42 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.920	$9,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:39 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.910	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:16 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.942	$1,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:15 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.940	$3,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:31 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,012	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:03 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.980	$21.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:01 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.980	$8,938	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:52 PM	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.981	$1,629	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:26 AM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY YES	0.750	$2,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:34 AM	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:53 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.998	$178.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 10:39 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.890	$3,762	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:38 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$3,262	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:38 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$4,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:37 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$4,352	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:37 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$4,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:36 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$2,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:16 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.872	$2,624	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:15 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.870	$5,949	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:15 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.867	$1,507	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:06 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.880	$3,311	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:34 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.900	$1,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:30 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.890	$1,352	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:29 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.880	$1,613	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:04 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.780	$1,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:02 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.780	$1,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:17 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.743	$2,359	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:16 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.760	$1,518	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:38 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.430	$1,808	—
Jun 8, 01:24 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY NO	0.360	$1,325	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 10:54 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.994	$16.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:53 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.995	$2,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:51 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.996	$51.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:50 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.996	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:43 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.944	$6,196	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:41 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.940	$1,142	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:24 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.935	$6,276	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:19 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.933	$4,644	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:18 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.927	$1,148	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.944	$1,893	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.939	$7,377	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 09:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.940	$2,820	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 08:57 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.899	$5,416	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:52 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.860	$6,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:52 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.856	$1,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:50 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.849	$4,458	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:50 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.845	$1,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:49 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.859	$2,428	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:48 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.828	$1,556	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:46 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL YES	0.800	$9,838	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 08:26 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.550	$2,061	—
Jun 7, 08:07 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.599	$1,013	—
Jun 7, 08:06 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.680	$1,457	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:06 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.699	$2,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:05 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.680	$1,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:05 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY YES	0.679	$1,533	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:21 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.530	$1,247	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:18 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.550	$3,652	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:18 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.560	$3,926	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:35 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.650	$6,500	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:41 AM	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.882	$2,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:41 AM	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	BUY YES	0.889	$4,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:41 AM	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,195	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:42 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.700	$1,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:28 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.690	$1,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:14 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.590	$1,122	—
Jun 5, 12:19 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.660	$9,656	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 11:16 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.710	$1,191	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:34 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$216.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:44 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$33.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:18 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL NO	0.935	$26.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 11:12 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$19.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:12 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL NO	0.936	$21.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:32 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$20.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:28 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.964	$1,097	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:28 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.965	$18.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 04:21 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$29.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:36 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.994	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 05:10 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$13.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.453	$1,811	—
Jun 1, 04:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.452	$3,535	—
May 29, 08:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.644	$26.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:43 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.990	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:43 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.973	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:10 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:10 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.855	$1,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:05 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.901	$1,538	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:01 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.869	$1,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:44 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.894	$2,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:50 AM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.933	$1,722	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:41 AM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.866	$1,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:12 AM	0xb45bcc8c	BUY YES	0.910	$1,032	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:11 AM	0xf5eed5d4	BUY NO	0.920	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:09 AM	0xf5eed5d4	BUY NO	0.940	$9,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:09 AM	0xf5eed5d4	BUY NO	0.940	$9,382	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:05 AM	0xb45bcc8c	BUY YES	0.925	$1,450	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

60 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	9	$351.0K	+$300.3K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Tech	27	$336.5K	$-59,890
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	3	$251.0K	+$151.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	8	$176.5K	+$176.5K
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Other	1	$99.9K	+$99.9K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	1	$97.4K	$-97,388
0xc4c3dbcc	—	23	$87.8K	+$1,527
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Politics	4	$49.6K	+$49.6K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Other	2	$47.8K	$-47,763
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	8	$45.8K	+$45.8K
0x2cd24d17	—	11	$45.2K	$-4,491
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	3	$37.4K	$-37,428
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	8	$35.9K	+$12.0K
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Other	9	$34.6K	+$34.6K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Other	1	$31.3K	+$31.3K
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Other	2	$30.8K	+$30.8K
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Politics	3	$27.9K	+$27.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	3	$24.1K	+$24.1K
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Tech	5	$23.4K	+$12.3K
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	Politics	7	$22.8K	+$17.5K
0xf5eed5d4	—	3	$22.2K	+$22.2K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$19.6K	+$19.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	2	$19.3K	$-19,299
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Other	2	$19.0K	+$19.0K
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	Other	2	$12.9K	+$12.9K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Other	4	$12.4K	+$2,401
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	3	$11.7K	$-5,085
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Other	2	$11.0K	+$5,076
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Other	2	$8,661	+$8,661
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Tech	2	$7,919	$-7,919

Showing top 30 by volume.