| Jun 20, 07:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $133.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:36 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,017 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 11:21 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.967 | $17.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,154 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.600 | $3,152 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:00 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,883 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:00 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.977 | $5,114 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.845 | $5,549 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:13 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.970 | $5,125 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 01:17 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $97.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 10:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $4,290 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $4,641 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:46 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,417 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:31 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $1,139 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:08 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.695 | $2,021 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:27 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.941 | $2,672 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:05 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $4,106 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:22 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $2,610 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:18 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $3,727 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:04 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $1,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:00 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.938 | $5,609 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 05:59 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.919 | $2,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 11:42 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $9,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 10:39 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $11.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 08:16 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 08:15 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $3,782 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 06:31 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $1,012 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:03 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $21.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:01 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $8,938 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:52 PM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.981 | $1,629 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 07:26 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $2,991 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:34 AM | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $178.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:39 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $3,762 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:38 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $3,262 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:38 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $4,017 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:37 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $4,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:37 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $4,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:36 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,562 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 09:16 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.872 | $2,624 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 09:15 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,949 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 09:15 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.867 | $1,507 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 09:06 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $3,311 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 08:34 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,845 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 08:30 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $1,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 08:29 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $1,613 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:04 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:02 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $1,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:17 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.743 | $2,359 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:16 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,518 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 01:38 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $1,808 | —— |
| Jun 8, 01:24 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $1,325 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 10:54 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $2,837 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:51 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $51.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $6,196 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:24 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.935 | $6,276 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:19 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.933 | $4,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:18 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.927 | $1,148 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $1,893 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.939 | $7,377 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 09:11 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.940 | $2,820 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:57 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.899 | $5,416 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $6,723 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:52 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.856 | $1,469 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.849 | $4,458 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.845 | $1,465 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:49 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.859 | $2,428 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:48 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.828 | $1,556 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:46 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.800 | $9,838 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:26 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,061 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:07 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.599 | $1,013 | —— |
| Jun 7, 08:06 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,457 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:06 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.699 | $2,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.679 | $1,533 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:21 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $1,247 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:18 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.550 | $3,652 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:18 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $3,926 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 06:35 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $6,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 06:41 AM | Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.882 | $2,248 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:41 AM | Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.889 | $4,081 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:41 AM | Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $1,195 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:42 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $1,569 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:28 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 01:14 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.590 | $1,122 | —— |
| Jun 5, 12:19 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.660 | $9,656 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 11:16 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.710 | $1,191 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:34 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $216.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:44 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $33.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:18 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.935 | $26.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:12 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:12 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.936 | $21.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:32 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $20.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.964 | $1,097 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:28 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $18.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 04:21 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $29.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:36 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $11.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:10 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $13.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 04:48 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.453 | $1,811 | —— |
| Jun 1, 04:48 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.452 | $3,535 | —— |
| May 29, 08:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.644 | $26.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:43 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:43 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.973 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:10 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $1,312 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:10 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.855 | $1,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 03:05 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.901 | $1,538 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 03:01 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.869 | $1,385 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:44 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.894 | $2,848 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:50 AM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.933 | $1,722 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:41 AM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.866 | $1,049 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:12 AM | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:11 AM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:09 AM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,186 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:09 AM | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,382 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:05 AM | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.925 | $1,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 12:41 AM | Claude 4.8 released by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,645 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $15.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,212 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:50 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $1,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:39 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $3,826 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $5,656 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,674 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.631 | $2,440 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $4,127 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 04:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $4,607 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 03:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $2,070 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 06:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $2,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,200 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 10:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,700 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 07:33 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,092 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:17 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:17 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:16 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $18.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:13 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $1,335 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:13 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $2,997 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:13 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:12 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $7,026 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $2,759 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $4,671 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:11 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $2,264 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:07 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $4,219 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:57 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,715 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.784 | $4,482 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $1,406 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,084 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 07:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,547 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.536 | $1,566 | —— |
| May 25, 07:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,277 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,104 | —— |
| May 24, 07:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.100 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $3,683 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.284 | $4,737 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $2,110 | —— |
| May 24, 02:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.530 | $1,533 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.520 | $3,237 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $3,992 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:42 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 02:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $1,972 | —— |
| May 24, 01:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.730 | $1,429 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.707 | $1,572 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,137 | —— |
| May 24, 12:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $1,169 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $1,248 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.680 | $1,027 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $3,675 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.648 | $1,997 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $2,114 | —— |
| May 23, 11:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,120 | —— |
| May 23, 10:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.549 | $2,175 | —— |
| May 23, 10:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $3,013 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $2,230 | —— |
| May 23, 10:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,425 | —— |
| May 23, 10:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.548 | $1,399 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,554 | —— |
| May 23, 09:28 PM | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $21.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $3,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $6,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.589 | $7,801 | —— |
| May 23, 09:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,065 | —— |
| May 21, 05:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,721 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,399 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.725 | $1,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 05:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.710 | $2,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 10:00 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $9,437 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:05 AM | Chirayu Rana sued? | SELL YES | 0.991 | $4,676 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 10:02 PM | Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.924 | $1,102 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 07:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.090 | $2,700 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:43 PM | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? | SELL YES | 0.991 | $2,880 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:24 PM | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $4,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:01 PM | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $2,512 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:00 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.933 | $9,330 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 04:44 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $10.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 04:34 PM | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $2,269 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 02:20 AM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $4,165 | — (SELL) |